Hail in Texas, May 11, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
647 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A mixed bag of MVFR and VFR ceilings currently at issuance, with
deterioration expected after sunset this evening as low ceilings
redevelop areawide. Confidence is high for IFR ceilings to
develop at MAF/HOB/CNM/FST by late this evening, and while
potential exists at PEQ/INK, lower confidence precludes mention at
this time. Improvement will be slow on Wednesday, with a return to
VFR conditions not expected until late in the period, if not just
beyond 13/00Z. The other concern is TS potential, with storms
ongoing this evening expected to remain S/SE of FST. Thus, will
continue monitor and amend if needed this evening and tonight if
additional SHRA/TSRA develops. Winds will generally remain
elevated and at least intermittently gusty out of the NE through
much of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows yesterday's Baja trough moving into central Texas,
with a line of convection along with it.  This activity brought much-
needed rain to the northern and eastern Permian Basin early this
morning, w/radar estimates of over 1 1/4" STP in places.  Upstream,
a minor trough is digging through the Rockies, and will give West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico another shot at rain overnight.

At the surface, yesterday's front has moved very little, but a
reinforcing shot of cold air will push it beyond the Presidio Valley
overnight.  For the time being, the warm sector encompasses the
lower Trans Pecos, and this will be the focus for severe activity
again this afternoon.  Mesoanalysis shows a tongue of enhanced sfc
cape along the front up into SE NM, w/around 2500 J/kg into Terrell
County.  The NAM hints at a mesolow on the Stockton Plateau, so the
Pecos supercell can't be ruled out, especially under maximum
insolation down thataway.  Large hail continues to be the main
threat, as steep mid-lvl lapse rates remain in play.  As mentioned
above, the front will push through beyond the Presidio Valley
overnight.  As it does, models hint at convection developing in
upslope flow against the higher terrain out west, then moving back
east.  Thus, this looks to go from severe activity this afternoon
lower Trans Pecos to hopefully a widespread rain event overnight.
Ensembles still depict PWATs 2-3 devs above normal over the SE CWA.
Gap winds still look to manifest through KGDP, and we've issued a
warning for there.

Rain chances look good through Wednesday as winds veer back around,
to return flow Wed night/Thu, tapering off by late Wednesday
afternoon. Wednesday looks to be our coldest day, w/the lower
terrain banked in stratus and remaining in the 60s most locations.
Weak, dirty ridging follows into the weekend, w/a gradual warmup to
near-normal by Sunday/Monday.

Under this ridging scenario, there will be plenty of low level
moisture in place to work with, and very little to disperse it, so
plenty of low-chance opportunities for convection will exist
each day into next week as disturbances move through the flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  61  50  70 /  20  40  10  10
Carlsbad                       51  65  51  75 /  20  20  10  10
Dryden                         60  67  57  75 /  40  60  20  10
Fort Stockton                  53  65  53  75 /  20  40  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 48  60  48  72 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          47  62  47  72 /  20  20  10  10
Marfa                          49  68  46  78 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  61  50  72 /  20  30  10  10
Odessa                         49  62  50  73 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           52  66  52  77 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 9 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains.

&&

80/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
120 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-121830-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
120 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021 /1220 PM MDT Tue May 11 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and tonight. Any storms
that do develop will be accompanied by frequent lightning, small
hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall. There is a slight risk
of severe storms, mainly across the lower Trans Pecos, capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.

A High Wind Warning is in effect tonight for Guadalupe Pass.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A High Wind Warning is in effect early Wednesday morning for
Guadalupe Pass.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ082-112300-
Terrell TX-
517 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TERRELL COUNTY UNTIL
600 PM CDT...

At 517 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Dryden, moving east at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Terrell County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2980 10180 2981 10182 2979 10182 2981 10185
      2978 10193 2982 10198 2980 10199 2980 10204
      2979 10204 2979 10207 2980 10214 2985 10219
      2984 10222 2986 10225 2985 10226 2987 10229
      3003 10227 3005 10176 2978 10176 2978 10181
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 271DEG 35KT 2991 10219

87

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
539 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

TXZ075-112330-
Pecos TX-
539 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 538 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 27
miles northwest of Sanderson. This storm was nearly stationary.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central Pecos
County.

LAT...LON 3023 10280 3038 10293 3068 10255 3049 10237
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 232DEG 3KT 3035 10280

80