Though a cold front had already pushed through the area, a strong upper level disturbance led to the development of strong and severe thunderstorms on Monday May 10 in the cool sector north of the front. Large hail occurred in several locations mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Though a cold front had already pushed through the area, a strong upper level disturbance led to the development of strong and severe thunderstorms on Monday May 10 in the cool sector north of the front. Large hail occurred in several locations mainly along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 4:53 AM CST, 3 hours 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 553 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The short term forecast remains on track based on observations and latest short term model guidance. I did nudged high temperatures downward given the continues northeasterly surface winds and widespread cloud cover expected to grip most of the region today. The diurnal temperature range will not be very large today---unless we get large breaks in the cloud shield---and it's probable that temperatures may only climb a few degrees higher than what is currently observed. Bain Previous Discussion: /Through Tuesday Afternoon/ Convection has dwindled early this morning as our slow moving front has sloshed toward the US HWY 79 corridor. Latest model guidance and observational trends suggest that it'll continue to slip southward through the pre-dawn hours and then exit the CWA by at least 12 UTC. Winds atop the frontal surface have already become southerly and this is evidenced by the increase in stratus across our area over the last 1-2 hours. Lift is expected to remain meager overnight and PoPs have been capped at around 20 percent. While I do not anticipate a widespread severe weather threat, we'll have to keep an eye on updrafts that can accelerate into the mid-troposphere as MUCAPEs south of I-20 are in excess of 1500 J/kg, mid-level lapse rates are around 7-7.5 C/km and 0-6km bulk wind differences are in excess of 40 knots. This equates to a favorable shear-instability parameter space capable of large hail through Monday morning. Sunrise Monday will feature increasing rain/storm chances from west to east across the FA as a ribbon of stronger isentropic upglide commences. This ribbon of ascent will shift to the east with the greatest PoPs around the noontime hour being east of I-35 and north of I-30. I cannot rule out that there may be a brief lull in precipitation from noon into the mid-afternoon hours with just clouds and perhaps some patchy drizzle. Again, there will be favorable kinematics and thermodynamics to support a large hail risk if convection really takes off. Tonight into Tuesday will feature renewed isentropic lift from the Hill Country and PoPs between 40 and 60 percent have been retained in the latest forecast cycle. At present time, it does appear that the greatest overlap between moisture and isentropic lift will be near and north of a Stephenville to Palestine line. Shear and instability will favor a large hail risk with the most robust convection, but there's still a large amount of uncertainty with regard to the exact evolution of convective elements. By Tuesday morning, I anticipate that we'll have our greatest chance for widespread rainfall given the pronounced/deeper isentropic ascent. The greatest rain chances will be west of I-35 initially with rain/storm chances increase for the rest of the area through the afternoon hours. Depending on just how much rain accumulates prior to Tuesday afternoon, there could be the need for some flood headlines. We will examine this closer this morning and today. Bain && .LONG TERM... /Issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021/ /Tuesday night through next Sunday/ By Tuesday night, most of the widespread precipitation will shift to the southeast as the main area of mid-level ascent exits our region. Lighter rain should continue through Wednesday due to weak isentropic lift but plenty of moisture still in place. Coverage will remain fairly scattered, with the greatest precip chances (40-50%) across Central TX. Guidance suggest some elevated instability that would at least support some thunder across our region. While not everyone will see precipitation on Wednesday, the cloudy skies will persist through most of the day keeping the highs again in the mid to upper 60s. Precipitation chances are expected to end Wednesday night and dry weather will prevail the rest of the week. Temperatures will slowly warm up as surface high pressure moves eastward. Thursday's temps will still be on the cool side because of the northerly component of the winds, with morning lows in the 50s and highs in the 70s with lots of sunshine. Expect near normal temperatures and breezy conditions by next weekend. We continue to show a low chance for showers/storms for parts of the area next weekend as a couple of disturbances move across the Southern Plains. While most extended guidance places the next upper trough across the western U.S. over the weekend, there's still some expected uncertainty regarding its timing and progression. Precipitation chances will continue to be adjusted over this week as confidence increases. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12 UTC TAF Cycle/ Concerns---Ceiling trends and convective potential. MVFR has inundated all TAF sites and confidence is high that most of the 12 UTC forecast period will see non-VFR cigs, but there will likely be periods where conditions improve to VFR (this afternoon) as well as times in which cigs will deteriorate and fall into the IFR category (tonight). Cloud bases should lower down to below 2,000 feet at Metroplex TAFs in the next 1-3 hours. Lift will be episodic in nature through the entire TAF cycle resulting in a risk for SHRA and/or TSRA. At present time, it looks like the *best* lift will be after 00 UTC Tuesday and I've relegated VCTS to this time period. As the lower levels continue to saturate, prolonged IFR appears probable late this evening and through the pre-dawn hours on Tuesday. Another opportunity for VCTS presents itself mid-morning Tuesday and this has been inserted in the extended D/FW TAF. Bain && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 58 67 57 67 / 30 60 90 60 30 Waco 70 60 70 59 67 / 20 50 90 70 40 Paris 62 55 61 54 65 / 40 60 80 60 20 Denton 64 56 65 55 66 / 30 60 80 50 30 McKinney 65 56 64 55 66 / 30 60 80 60 30 Dallas 69 58 67 57 68 / 30 60 90 60 30 Terrell 67 57 65 56 66 / 30 60 90 70 30 Corsicana 69 59 70 58 67 / 20 60 90 70 40 Temple 72 61 73 59 67 / 30 50 90 70 50 Mineral Wells 65 56 66 55 65 / 20 60 80 50 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 536 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111045- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 536 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. There is a risk for isolated storms today across most of North and Central Texas. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, some of the stronger storms may produce hail. Brief heavy rain may also result in minor flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will continue through Wednesday. While the severe weather threat will be low, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding will be possible across parts of Central Texas. Some rivers may also experience minor flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Bain
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
850 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
TXZ091-092-101415-
Cooke TX-Montague TX-
850 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MONTAGUE AND
NORTHWESTERN COOKE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM CDT...
At 849 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Grady, or 12 miles northeast of Nocona, moving
east at 30 mph.
Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Montague and northwestern Cooke Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3398 9764 3395 9759 3392 9760 3390 9758
3390 9755 3392 9751 3391 9746 3384 9746
3382 9743 3382 9737 3388 9733 3386 9733
3387 9731 3389 9731 3386 9726 3371 9727
3382 9775 3394 9774 3399 9769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 264DEG 25KT 3393 9760
GodwinSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
908 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
TXZ092-101445-
Cooke TX-
908 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL COOKE COUNTY UNTIL 945 AM
CDT...
At 908 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leon, or 15 miles southwest of Marietta, moving east at 35 mph.
Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Gainesville and Callisburg.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so closely monitor for additional
information or possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3395 9694 3360 9695 3372 9742 3382 9744
3382 9737 3389 9731 3386 9726 3392 9721
3386 9717 3381 9721 3376 9719 3372 9711
3373 9711 3380 9710 3382 9705 3385 9709
3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1408Z 261DEG 29KT 3383 9735
GodwinThe Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 135 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:52 UTC.
48 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A public report indicated half-dollar sized hail approximately 3 miles north of the city of Sadler, TX.
Emergency management reported ping pong ball sized hail in the city of Sadler, TX.
Emergency management reported ping pong ball sized hail approximately 2 miles south of of Sadler, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail approximately 2 miles west-northwest of the city of Sherman, TX.
Emergency management reported quarter sized hail 3 miles east-southeast of Denison, TX.
A public report indicated ping pong ball sized hail about a mile west-southwest of Bells, TX.
A public report indicated half-dollar sized hail about a mile west-southwest of Bells , TX.
A public report indicated half-dollar sized hail near Wolfe City, TX.
Fire and Rescue reported half-dollar sized hail in Stephenville, TX.
A public report indicated dime sized hail in Stephenville, TX.
A trained spotter reported nickel sized hail in Stephenville, TX.
A public report indicated hen-egg sized hail in the city of Stephenville, TX.
A public report indicated golf ball sized hail approximately 3 miles south-southwest of Weatherford, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail 2 miles south-southwest of Weatherford, TX.
Amateur radio reported half-dollar sized hail in the city of Hudson Oaks, TX.
A public report indicated golf ball sized hail in the city of Willow Park, TX.
A social media report indicated quarter sized hail 2 miles north of Aledo, TX.
A public report indicated quarter size hail 2 miles south-southwest of the city of Boyd, TX.
A public report indicated half-dollar sized hail in the city of Azle, TX.
A National Weather Service employee reported half dollar sized hail 2 miles west-northwest of Justin, TX.
Amateur radio reported quarter sized hail 4 miles west-northwest of Haslet, TX.
Multiple sources reported 1.75-inch to 4-inch diameter hail in the city of Ponder, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail 3 miles southwest of Haslet, TX.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail 2 miles south-southwest of Krum, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail 3 miles east of Briar Oaks, TX.
Amateur radio reported quarter sized hail 3 miles northeast of Burleson, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail in the north part of the city of Denton, TX.
Amateur radio reported half dollar sized hail 4 miles west-northwest of Crowley, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail approximately 2 miles west-northwest of Crowley, TX.
Emergency management reported half-dollar sized hail in Luella, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail about a mile west of Bells, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail approximately 5 miles west-northwest of Ector, TX.
Emergency management reported ping pong ball sized hail approximately 7 miles north northeast of Ector, TX.
Amateur radio reported nickel sized hail near the city of Richardson, TX.
A trained spotter reported 2-inch diameter hail covering the road near the intersection of FM 273 and CR 2200 near the city of Ivanhoe, TX.
Amateur radio reported golf ball sized hail approximately 3 miles north of Bonham, TX.
A social media report indicated 2-inch diameter hail in the city of Elwood, TX.
A public report indicated half-dollar sized hail about a mile northeast of Everman, TX.
Dime sized hail reported on Cross Creek Court in Arlington.
A trained spotter reported quarter sized hail near the intersection of Turner-Warnell and Matlock Roads in Mansfield, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail approximately 3 miles northeast of Mansfield, TX.
A public report indicated dime sized hail near the city of Sachse, TX.
Emergency management reported quarter to half-dollar sized hail in the city of Lavon, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail in the city of Lavon, TX.
A public report indicated quarter sized hail just north of Lavon, TX.
A social media report indicated ping pong ball sized hail in Lavon, TX.
Emergency management reported quarter sized hail near the intersection of Interstate 20 and Belt Line Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960666, 960672, 961429, 960682, 960683, 960684, 960685, 960718, 960720, 960722, 960723, 960725, 960726, 960727, 960728, 960729, 960730, 961075, 961095, 961099, 961103, 961150, 961161, 961164, 961165, 961166, 961168, 961171, 961172, 961423, 961178, 961185, 961179, 961188, 961180, 961190, 961183, 961189, 961192, 961422, and more.