Wildfire in Texas, March 17 to 20, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
348 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night): The cold front has
pushed offshore and plenty of dry air is moving south over the
area dropping the RH values and allowing the temps to heat up
into the 80s/90s for much of the region due to daytime heating.
The afternoon high temp of 94 at MFE has tied the record for the
day with highs elsewhere falling just short of daily records. The
dry northerly low level flow will persist throughout the short
term period with relatively low surface dewpoints allowing the
overnight lows to radiate out pretty well tonight and tomorrow
night. Accordingly, the overnight lows over the next couple of
nights will range generally from the 40s across the northern
Ranchlands to the 50s across the RGV. Afternoon highs Thurs will
be a little more limited as it will take more time for the daytime
heating to warmup temps after a very chill start to the day
tomorrow morning. So will go with max temps in the 70s/80s.

The NAM/GFS and ECMWF short term model guidance shows reasonable
agreement for temps and will go close to a model blend through
Thur Night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday): Mid-level ridging will
build over the Plains on Friday then slowly shifts eastward
through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure across east
Texas Friday will begin to slide eastward on Saturday. This will
allow the onshore flow to return across the area by the latter
half of the weekend. The 500mb ridge axis slides east of the
region on Monday as the next mid/upper level low digs southward
into the Great Basin region. The 500 mb short wave will then swing
eastward near the Four Corners region Sunday night and into the
Southern Plains Monday night and Tuesday. The pressure gradient
will strengthen on Monday as surface low pressure develops across
New Mexico Sunday night and moves into the Texas panhandle on
Monday. Low level moisture begins to increase across the area
Sunday night and Monday ahead of the next front. Models diverge
late in the period as the GFS pushes the next cold front through
deep south Texas on Tuesday while the ECMWF stalls the front well
north of the CWA. Will lean towards keeping the front north of the
area for now as southeast flow continues through the period.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may drift into the northern
ranchlands by Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, quiet weather is
expected through much of the period with dry west to northwest
flow aloft. Temperatures will remain below normal through the
weekend with cool nights and mild days. Temperatures gradually
warm by early next week as steady southeast flow increases.

&&

.MARINE (Friday through Monday Night): As the cold front pushes
offshore, there will be a window of potential SCA conditions due
to the strong northerly surface winds across the Gulf waters. Will
be posting an SCA for the lower TX Gulf waters for tonight into
Thurs due to elevated winds and seas. The strong PGF will then
decrease steadily heading into Thurs afternoon and night allowing
for the Gulf conditions to improve somewhat.

Friday through Monday Night: Moderate north to northeast winds
initially will become light by Friday night as high pressure prevails
across the western Gulf. Light northeast winds Saturday will become
east then southeast Saturday night as high pressure moves eastward.
Southeast winds will increase on Sunday into Sunday night as the
pressure gradient strengthens along the lower Texas coast. Low to
moderate seas will prevail through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather: The RH values have been crashing this afternoon as
the very dry air moves into the region from the north and the high
temps top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s. IR fire satl imagery
shows several hot spots have developed around the region indicated
that fires are on the increase. So will maintain the Red Flag
Warning through 7 pm for the inland portions of Deep South TX.
Although the 20 foot wind speeds will weaken during the night and
Thurs, the RH values will drop once again into the teens across
the western counties and into the lower to mid 20s closer to the
coastline on Thurs. So the concern for erratic wildfire growth
will likely persist into Thurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  57  70  53  69 /   0   0   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          56  79  52  73 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN            54  80  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN              53  82  51  79 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  83  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   59  65  58  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-353.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT
     Thursday for GMZ150-155-170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Short Term/Aviation...60-Speece
Long Term...63-KC
IDSS...54-BHM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

TXZ248>257-351-353-182100-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the beaches of South
Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach.

A Red Flag Warning for rapid growth and spread of wildfires is in
effect until 7 PM CDT tonight for all of Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley except the coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy,
and Kenedy Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches
Thursday and Friday and again Monday and Tuesday.

A Wind Advisory is possible for the eastern section of Deep South
Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-182100-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
350 PM CDT Wed Mar 17 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Gulf of Mexico waters
from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore from 11 PM CDT tonight until
1 PM CDT Thursday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible along the Lower
Texas Coast Monday night through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed.