The first of a multi day tornado event occurred on the evening of the 12th. A slow moving upper level low was located over southern California moving into Arizona.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
The first of a multi day tornado event occurred on the evening of the 12th. A slow moving upper level low was located over southern California moving into Arizona. Ample moisture surged northward east of a dryline leading to mixed layer instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg underneath very steep mid-level lapse rates. This strong buoyancy led to extremely tall storms which produced large hail up to tennis ball size. Damage to a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site occurred near Paducah (Cottle County). Very strong shear near an intersection of the dryline and a quasi-stationary front led to two tornadoes during the evening. The first was in Lubbock County just north of Shallowater. The second tornado occurred in rural southwestern Cottle County. No damage was known to be caused by the tornadoes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 2:37 PM CST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 237 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 .SHORT TERM... Warm moist southerly flow continues to advect higher dewpoints into our area this afternoon with a surface boundary draped just north of the area in the AMA CWA. Out west very slow clearing is occurring with the dryline making a very slow progression towards the eastward. Should the dryline mix into or very close to the CWA the area south of the surface boundary and east of the dryline will be the area to watch as CAPE values could climb well into the 1000 J/kg range. The strongest instability will likely be muted by the cloud coverage resulting in storms being more elevated in nature this afternoon if they do develop. This evening and into tonight as the upper level low continues to move east and we begin to see the affects of the large scale ascent combined with the intensifying LLJ we could see strong to severe thunderstorms develop. With 65+ kts of Bulk shear, a strong LLJ and ample lapse rates values, supercells capable of producing large hail of up to 2.00" can't be ruled out with winds gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range. It should be noted that the current thinking is that surface based storms chances are low. However, any storm that develops along the intersection of the LLJ and the stationary boundary or along the dryline will have the potential to become rooted and pose a tornadic threat. Given the high PWs present any supercells that do develop cause localized flooding. Thus, we have included all hazards in this forecast. Overnight as the LLJ shifts further east and cooling occurs thunderstorm activity will become very isolated and elevated, but the severe threat returns tomorrow. As the deep upper low to our west moves across northern Arizona tonight and then into NM early tomorrow morning large scale ascent will be over the area. An associated Pacific cold front will concurrently sweep eastward through the CWA starting tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon deep lifting along the front in conjunction with strong upper level support will meet 50F to 60F dewpoints across the eastern South Plains and Rolling Plains to create another round of severe weather. Once again steep lapse rates, diurnal heating and CAPE values in the 1000 J/kg range will be present. The mode of storms tomorrow afternoon will depend on the speed of the front. At this point the thinking is that the front will be quick moving and the mode will be linear in nature. The main difference between today and tomorrow will be that surface based storm will be much more likely given the presence of the Pacific front. Capping will also be much weaker tomorrow allowing for less resistance to convective initiation. With all the dymamics present all hazards will once again in play with hail and wind gusts being the most impactful. West of the Pacific front across the South Plains low and mid level gradients will strengthen causing windy conditions with wind speeds edging towards advisory criteria. Very dry air will also be advected behind the front reintroducing a fire weather threat to the far southwestern South Plains. .LONG TERM... Convection should be close to exiting the FA to the east by tomorrow evening as the Pacific front continues pushing through the region. Some severe storms will continue to be possible especially along the Pacific front with severe winds and hail over one inch in diameter being the biggest threats. Winds will decrease through the overnight hours but should remain near the 15-20 mph range. Winds will pick up Sunday morning as the upper and surface lows move across southeastern Colorado/southwestern Kansas. With clear skies and excellent mixing winds may possibly reach advisory criteria through much of the day. These winds could present elevated to near critical fire weather conditions as min RH values will be in the mid teens to lower 20s. The fire weather threat will also depend on if/how much rain falls tonight through tomorrow as more rain will equate to more moist fuels. The upper low will exit to our northeast by early Monday morning with shortwave upper ridging moving in overhead giving us one nice weather day before the next upper low encroaches upon the region Tuesday. This next upper low looks to be more progressive and further south than our Sunday low. Windy conditions look to be possible once again Tuesday afternoon and evening as the upper low moves just to our north. This will be followed by a cold front Wednesday and will cool temps back into the upper 50s/60s for Wednesday and Thursday. Temps look to rebound back into the 70s going into the weekend as upper ridging moves across the region. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 28/51
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 206 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 TXZ021>044-132015- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 206 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorm chances will increase late this afternoon and continue tonight with the potential to bring all severe hazards. Hail up to 2 inches in diameter along with wind gusts to 65 mph will be possible. In addition, there will be a tornado threat, mainly north and east of a line from Dimmitt, to Plainview, to Paducah. Heavy rain across the far southeastern Texas Panhandle could also create localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline Saturday, and these storms will also have the potential to become severe. To the west of the dryline, generally west of the I-27 corridor during mid to late afternoon Saturday, elevated fire weather conditions may develop due to the arrival of a dry air mass and increasing west winds. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions may develop areawide Sunday along with very strong winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any information about severe weather to the NWS while following local, state, and CDC guidelines.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Lubbock TX 443 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 TXZ028-029-034-035-122315- Hockley-Lamb-Lubbock-Hale- 443 PM CST Fri Mar 12 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LUBBOCK... NORTHEASTERN HOCKLEY...SOUTHWESTERN HALE AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMB COUNTIES... At 442 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southeast of Anton, or 15 miles west of Abernathy, moving northeast at 35 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Abernathy, Anton and Spade. This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. LAT...LON 3364 10214 3374 10230 3405 10217 3387 10179 TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 232DEG 29KT 3377 10211 55
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 29 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:55 UTC.
3 hail, 2 tornado, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A storm chaser reported quarter size hail near the intersection of Farm to Market road 179 and County Road 320 in Hale County.
A trained spotter observed a brief tornado lasting for five minutes about five miles north of Shallowater. No damage was reported.
A report was received of hail up to tennis ball size around two to three miles north of Petersburg.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near McAdoo measured severe wind gusts from 1856 CST through 1859 CST. A peak wind of 64 mph was measured at 1857 CST.
A storm chaser reported that several utility poles were downed and snapped near the intersection of Farm to Market Road 193 and Texas State Highway 70 associated with rear flank downdraft winds.
A storm chaser observed a brief tornado about 11 miles south-southwest of Paducah.
A swath of hail up to golf ball size occurred from a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet ten miles southwest of Paducah to US Highway 83 seven miles south of Paducah.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Texas, 2021Warnings in Texas, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 940366, 940401, 940402, 940406, 940407, 940418, 940411.