Heavy rain caused some minor flooding near Graham.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Heavy rain caused some minor flooding near Graham.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 4:39 AM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 539 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The forecast below is largely on track, however, we updated the PoPs to more accurately match the updated guidance and real-time trends. Bonnette Previous Discussion: /Through Wednesday/ Shower activity has upticked over the past hour or so largely in response to the development of 25-30 kt southeast low level flow aloft providing just enough ascent to develop showers. The 00Z Fort Worth RAOB measured a PWAT of 1.97" which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of the year. Much of this sounding is also conditionally unstable, so it does not take much ascent to saturate parcels and create rain showers in this anomalously moist airmass. Scattered showers are expected to continue through the pre-dawn hours with only a few isolated rumbles of thunder possible since the ascent is on the weak side. Today should be similar to yesterday in the sense that it won't take much heating to develop scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. In general, expect a few showers to be ongoing around sunrise with a gradual increase in precip coverage through the mid to late morning, peaking in coverage in the early afternoon, then gradually diminishing through the afternoon. The steering flow is expected to be more southerly tomorrow, so most showers and storms should exhibit a south -> north movement. Very weak deep layer shear and meager lapse rates should preclude the severe threat, however, brief downpours may lead to localized minor flooding in a few flood prone spots. A bright spot in the forecast is that temperatures should remain in the mid-upper 80s (about 5-10 degrees below normal) which is quite welcome for late June. The loss of heating this evening should bring an end to much of the precip. The only exception to this could be along the Red River where scattered showers could continue for much of the night. Mid level ridging starts to work into the area tonight into tomorrow, which will lessen precip chances Wednesday. Although isolated to scattered showers are still possible in the afternoon, the precip coverage Wednesday should be much less than the past couple days. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /Issued 321 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ An uncharacteristically active weather pattern will persist during the extended forecast period with anomalously low heights forecast to remain in place over the southern portion of the US. A relatively modest upper ridge will attempt to build into the area during the day on Wednesday, and associated subsidence should result in a mostly dry and clear evening and overnight period. By Thursday however, a cold front will be accompanying new height falls southward through the Central Plains and eventually into North Texas. While uncertainty in timing remains with this feature, confidence in its eventual arrival is high, along with the potential for fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms along it. We'll advertise the highest PoPs with this feature late Thursday into Friday, but timing could change by as much as 12 hours as this feature begins to move into range of additional short-term guidance. Modest lapse rates and accordingly low MUCAPE will be present ahead of this feature along with weak flow/shear, so the severe weather potential appears quite low with the frontal passage. However, a standard advertisement of gusty winds and heavy rainfall is warranted with very high PW values expected to be in place with this feature, and some wet microbursts are certainly a possibility. The more difficult portion of the forecast lies over the upcoming holiday weekend. Most coarse guidance wants to linger precipitation well behind the frontal boundary on both Saturday and Sunday. However, am currently somewhat skeptical regarding how widespread this rainfall would be without any noteworthy source of isentropic lift over the boundary or any other significant source of ascent, not to mention the presence of notably drier post-frontal air. We'll mostly carry some 20-50% chances during the weekend time period. While many areas may remain dry during this time window, those with outdoor interests for the holiday will certainly want to keep up with the weather and perhaps have a backup plan in place. With the amount of convective activity present over the next several days along with the arrival of the weak cold front, temperatures are forecast to remain near or below normal through nearly the entire extended forecast. Friday could end up being substantially "cooler" behind the front if cloud cover and/or precipitation lingers through a majority of the day, and some locations in North Texas may struggle to reach the mid 80s. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ Ceilings will be a challenge this morning as the D10 terminals are currently anywhere between 700 and 4500 ft. The current forecast carries prevailing MVFR with temporary IFR through 14Z. With that being said, occasional periods of VFR are still possible/expected through the morning. Flight conditions should generally improve through the morning with VFR prevailing at all terminals by 16-18Z. Thunderstorms are expected INVOF the D10 and KACT terminals today, however, we are still unsure of exactly when and where storms will initiate. The current TAF carries VCTS from 20-00Z, however, this may need to be adjusted by an hour or two in future TAF issuances. All storms should come to an end by this evening, with VFR and south flow prevailing through the evening. The return of MVFR or IFR is expected in the early morning hours tomorrow around or after 12Z. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 86 74 90 77 93 / 60 20 30 10 30 Waco 86 72 90 74 92 / 60 20 40 5 20 Paris 86 72 88 75 88 / 40 30 20 20 50 Denton 85 72 89 74 91 / 60 30 30 10 30 McKinney 85 73 89 75 91 / 60 20 20 10 40 Dallas 87 74 91 77 93 / 60 20 30 10 30 Terrell 86 72 90 74 91 / 60 20 30 10 30 Corsicana 85 72 90 75 92 / 60 20 30 5 20 Temple 86 71 89 72 92 / 60 20 40 5 20 Mineral Wells 85 71 88 72 90 / 60 40 30 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-300830- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 318 AM CDT Tue Jun 29 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of North and Central Texas today. Moderate to heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning would be the main hazards. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast on Wednesday and Thursday, but coverage is expected to be less than earlier in the week. Thunderstorms may become more widespread late Thursday and Friday as a cold front moves into the region. Severe weather is unlikely, but all thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Low thunderstorm chances will continue into the upcoming holiday weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Young Co Sheriff's Office reported water over the road at FM 1769 and US Hwy 380.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 970265.