An area of low pressure over South Texas generated thunderstorms that moved into South Central Texas. Some of these storms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
An area of low pressure over South Texas generated thunderstorms that moved into South Central Texas. Some of these storms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 8, 10:44 PM CST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1144 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 .AVIATION... The bulk of the precip remains just southeast of the San Antonio sites tonight, with some off and on light rain at the San Antonio sites and to a lesser extent KAUS. Will show VCSH for AUS and -SHRA for SAT/SSF through the overnight period with -SHRA more likely for AUS in the afternoon hours. MVFR/IFR ceilings and possibly visibility restrictions can be expected tonight as well with little to slow improvement tomorrow. The main chances for any rainfall for DRT will be some scattered activity in the afternoon and will handle that with VCSH. While the overall chances for thunder are too low to mention in the TAFs there is a small chance of a thunderstorm, and will handle that with amendments. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ UPDATE... Tropical moisture continues across much of our area as a low pressure from the surface and aloft drifts to the west. Hi-res models and radar trends show increasing rainfall amounts for tonight. Have raised POPs most areas, except far west and have maintained the Flash Flood Watch as is. However, there is a potential that more counties to the north and west may have to be added later. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ AVIATION... For the I-35 sites, expect SHRA in the VCNTY tonight through Friday, however KSAT/KSSF will have better chances for impacts and have gone with prevailing SHRA late evening through Friday. Expect MVFR CIGs to rapidly drop to IFR by late evening. There is a possibility of LIFR CIGs with mix of MVFR/IFR VSBYs in SHRA, however have left out LIFR CIGs, for now. There is also a possibility of ISOLD TSRA with PROBs too low to mention. CIGs will gradually lift to MVFR on Friday with slight chances of mixing to VFR in the afternoon. Easterly winds of 7 to 12 KTs prevail with a few gusts to 22 KTs possible. For KDRT, expect SHRA in the VCNTY and VFR skies this evening and again Friday afternoon. The exception being MVFR CIGs overnight into morning. VRBL winds less than 10 KTs are expected. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)... afternoon satellite data, surface analysis, and mesoanalysis show the low pressure still centered around Alice. Based on the KEWX radar there also may be a little mesovortex near the intersection of Karnes, Live Oak, and Bee Counties. In the immediate short term this is allowing for more light to moderate rainfall to work into DeWitt, Lavaca, Gonzales, and Fayette Counties. MRMS one hour totals have generally been between 0.25 and 0.75 inches of rainfall, with instantaneous rates at times reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour. The good news with this activity is that it is fairly progressive so even if there are pockets of heavier rainfall it should not sit over an area for too long. Synoptically through the short term the surface low will translate from South Texas to the north and west. In general the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show the surface low centered close to Eagle Pass by Friday morning. The Canadian has the movement much further north with the surface low centered over Atascosa county by Friday morning. These are also the two solutions represented in the high resolution models. Some drift the low almost due west, others more northwest towards the San Antonio, with a few actually dissipating the low gradually through tomorrow morning. Between the four synoptic models they keep the highest QPF across the Coastal Plains but now are spreading more rainfall across parts of Wilson, Gonzales, Bexar, and Atascosa Counties. The mesoscale models support this as well. The 12z HREF maintained the general 1 to 4 mean QPF through tomorrow night, with some max totals possible of 5 to 7 inches. It is important to note that pinpointing exactly where the heaviest rainfall will fall is still in question. For the afternoon and evening the trend should be the Coastal Plains, but through tomorrow morning and during the day on Friday some of the mesoscale models drift the higher totals towards Bexar County and westward, while others focus on the Lee to Bastrop to Gonzales Corridor. The NAM is an outlier in terms of QPF placement, but it brings a band of heavier rainfall across the Austin Metro and Hill Country this evening into the overnight. Long story short here is the pesky low just won't be going away in the short term. With the models generally honing in on the Coastal Plains, and parts of Bexar and Atascosa County seeing decent to flooding rains over the last few days have elected to add Atascosa, Bexar, Gonzales, Guadalupe, and Wilson Counties to the Flash Flood Watch through Friday night. Many of the Coastal Plains Counties can take more prolonged light rain, it is the pockets of higher totals or any training that sets up in the bands of rain that would lead to the higher rainfall totals and the risk for flash flooding. While rain won't fully taper off, and some of the mesoscale models do hold on to pockets of heavier rainfall, in general it looks like by Friday night the surface low will have transitioned westward and rain chances and rainfall amounts will finally begin to drop off. With the cloud cover and rain around afternoon highs will continue to run in the mid 80s, a good 10 degrees below normal. LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... The weekend starts to show some signs of drying as the mid level low moves west and weakens. Saturday will still hold some chance POPs while this low weakens, and with PWATs still elevated, some showers could still carry a good downpour. Sunday should be the driest day the area has had in several days, however, a cold front that enters North Texas approaches the area and could be the focus for more showers Sunday night into Monday. Then Tuesday through the end of the end of the week, daily afternoon chance showers are expected, mostly near the Coastal Plains. Temperatures are still on the low end with highs 4-7 degrees below seasonal normals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 83 75 89 75 / 60 70 30 30 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 83 74 89 74 / 70 70 30 30 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 73 85 75 91 75 / 80 70 40 40 10 Burnet Muni Airport 71 82 73 89 74 / 40 50 30 20 - Del Rio Intl Airport 75 91 75 92 76 / 20 50 50 40 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 82 74 89 74 / 50 60 30 20 - Hondo Muni Airport 73 84 74 88 74 / 60 70 50 40 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 84 74 89 75 / 70 70 40 30 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 74 85 77 91 77 / 80 70 30 40 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 73 83 75 89 75 / 70 70 50 40 10 Stinson Muni Airport 74 85 77 90 77 / 70 70 50 40 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for Atascosa-Bexar-De Witt- Gonzales-Guadalupe-Karnes-Lavaca-Wilson. && Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire Long-Term...Morris
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 651 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-091200- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 651 AM CDT Thu Jul 8 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible today and tonight across the Coastal Plains with isolated to scattered showers and storms across the remainder of South Central Texas. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across Lavaca, DeWitt, and Karnes counties which could lead to flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for these counties through Friday evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday along and south of I-10 and the U.S. 90 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across Lavaca, DeWitt, and Karnes counties which could lead to flooding. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for these counties through Friday evening. Areas as far north as San Antonio, New Braunfels, and La Grange should still be in heightened awareness mode as a precaution since it can't be ruled out that some heavier rain could develop further north than the current watch suggests, and some of these areas are saturated from recent rounds of heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1209 AM CDT FRI JUL 9 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1209 AM FLASH FLOOD KENEDY 28.82N 97.84W
07/09/2021 KARNES TX EMERGENCY MNGR
EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS SEVERAL ROADS
CLOSED IN AND AROUND KENEDY.
&&
HAMPSHIREThe Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 97 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:07 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding closing several roads in and around Kenedy.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flash flooding. Vehicles were stranded in flood water in and around Kenedy.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972267, 972269.