A stalled front served as a focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding across parts of the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A stalled front served as a focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding across parts of the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 4:18 AM CST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 518 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: The current forecast is on track with shower/storm chances increasing through the day with the best chances across the Central Texas zones this afternoon. The only other thing of note will be some brief, patchy fog this morning across mainly the southeast zones. 79 Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Night/ A moist and unstable atmosphere will remain in place across the region through Saturday. Although showers and storms could develop just about anywhere, the main focus will be along a stalled front, currently located just south of the I-20 corridor. The prime time for storm development will be during the heat of the day; however, weak large scale lift on the eastern periphery of high pressure centered near the Four Corners region will be enough to warrant some low PoPs overnight and Saturday night. The potential for severe weather will remain low but locally heavy rainfall, lighting and gusty outflow winds could threaten any outdoor gatherings this holiday weekend. Extensive cloud cover will keep lows in the 70s overnight and highs generally in the middle and upper 80s on Saturday. 79 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 418 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021/ /July 4th through Next Week/ A few scattered showers will likely be ongoing over Central Texas as the sun rises on the Fourth of July Holiday (Happy Birthday America!). The cold front will have started to wash out as southerly flow starts to overtake the boundary. With that being said, the remnant boundary will still very much influence the weather. The most discernible feature of the front will weak moisture convergence, evident as a NW-SE dew point gradient, draped across Central and Western North Texas. Weak confluence along this boundary should allow for isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop over the course of the day. Further northeast, no precip is expected as much drier air will have worked into the area. The exact location of this boundary should generally be south and west of DFW, however, a few isolated showers or storms may develop as far east as the I-35W corridor in the afternoon. Even across Central Texas, it should not be a total washout due to the scattered and hit/miss nature of the precip. It would still be a good idea to have either a backup plan and/or a place to temporarily shelter from lightning if outdoors. The primary threat with any storm Sunday will be gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain. All storms should come to a quick end within an hour or two of sunset. After a break in the precip for much of the night, additional showers and storms should start to develop over Central Texas and the Big Country in the early morning hours Monday. We will also have to keep an eye to our northwest as a thunderstorm complex moves south overnight. Recent guidance indicates this complex should remain to the west of our area, however, it will be accompanied by a weakness in the upper height field. This weakness/trough should then stall over Texas and linger overhead for much of the next week alongside warm and moist return flow in the low levels. This pattern should keep unsettled weather over the region for much of next week with daily rain and storm chances. Most of the activity will be diurnally driven given the lack of focused low level ascent, so each day generally has the highest PoPs in the afternoon and over Central Texas where the better moisture resides. Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through next week. Bonnette && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ The main aviation weather concerns today will be the potential for thunderstorms as well as brief MVFR ceilings. Overall, it has stayed VFR and rain-free at all the TAF sites overnight. However, showers continued to develop northeast and east of the Metroplex terminals as well as Waco just before sunrise. These showers may temporarily reach the TAF sites through mid morning, bringing brief light to moderate rain and MVFR ceilings. An isolated rumble of thunder can't be ruled out either, but it still appears that the best storm chances will not arrive until this afternoon and should be generally to the west and southwest of the I-35 corridor. Storms should be close enough to Waco to include thunder in the vicinity this afternoon. All storms should dissipate this evening with the loss of surface heating. Outside of the showers/storms expect VFR through tonight with generally broken to overcast middle and high clouds. An east to northeast wind will continue through tonight at speeds less than 10 knots. 79 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 71 92 74 91 / 50 5 5 10 30 Waco 85 71 89 72 88 / 80 20 20 10 40 Paris 86 65 87 67 90 / 20 0 0 5 20 Denton 87 67 91 70 90 / 50 5 5 10 30 McKinney 87 67 90 70 90 / 50 5 5 5 30 Dallas 88 71 92 74 91 / 50 5 5 10 30 Terrell 86 67 89 70 90 / 50 5 5 10 30 Corsicana 86 71 90 73 90 / 50 10 10 10 40 Temple 86 70 89 71 88 / 80 40 40 20 50 Mineral Wells 85 68 89 70 88 / 60 10 20 20 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040800- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 3 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop today and continue into the evening hours. The best storm chances will be across Central and Western North Texas. Severe weather is not expected, but strong outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rain are the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible this weekend, especially across Central Texas and the Big Country. Lightning and brief heavy rain will be the main hazards. Additional scattered thunderstorms are forecast every day this upcoming week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Navarro County OEM reported street flooding and flooding in low-lying areas in and around the Corsicana. Minor street flooding was also reported in Mildred, Angus, and Mustang.
Pictures on social media showed standing water on residential yards and driveways.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 970916, 970937.