An upper ridge was centered over Arizona and New Mexico and an upper trough extended from the Great Lakes southwest towards Oklahoma. A surface trough extended from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
An upper ridge was centered over Arizona and New Mexico and an upper trough extended from the Great Lakes southwest towards Oklahoma. A surface trough extended from Southeast New Mexico south to the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. Moisture was high across West Texas. These conditions resulted in a thunderstorm in Reeves County that produced wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 5:12 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 612 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Current radar is showing scattered TS developing across the area. Coverage is too sparse to include in most TAF locations but activity is close enough to INK/CNM to warrant mention there for the next couple of hours. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected with light to modest southeast winds. Hennig && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday night) Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 Upper ridging is centered over Arizona and New Mexico and an upper trough extends from the Great Lakes southwestward to Oklahoma. A surface trough is across Southeast New Mexico extending south to the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau. High amounts of low-level moisture are in place with dewpoints in the 60s across much of the area. These conditions will result in showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon from Southeast New Mexico southward to the Davis Mountains and Rio Grande. This activity may reach as far east as the western Permian Basin. The main concerns with these storms will be lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain. Temperatures today will be similar to yesterday with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s with triple digits along and near the Pecos River and Rio Grande. Abundant low-level moisture will be in place across the area tonight through tomorrow morning with some light showers possible. Low temperatures tonight will mostly be in the 70s. The previously mentioned upper ridge will expand over Texas on Saturday. Any rain and storm chances will mostly remain confined to along and west of the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. Temperatures on Saturday will be slightly cooler across most of the area. Abundant low-level moisture will again be across the area Saturday night with dewpoints in the 60s expected as far west as Culberson County. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 On Sunday the subtropical ridge will be centered to the nw with a slow moving mid-level trough extending swwd from the Great Lakes region resulting in weak ne mid-level flow. PoPs will be minimized across the W TX plains due to a lack of a surface focus, but a few storms in and around the mtns will be possible. Little change on Monday, however the pattern will start to be influenced by the aforementioned mid-level trough. During the diurnal heating cycle convection will be favored in and around the mtns with a minima across the plains again. We expect that there will be little sensible temperature change Sunday/Monday with near seasonal highs. Late Monday night into Tuesday AM an MCS and associated convective outflow are likely to merge with a cold front arriving sometime during the day Tuesday. The general model consensus is that the MCS or its remnants will be just e of the CWFA through Tuesday. Depending on the boundary, how the SB instability axis orients relative to the boundary, and how the mid-level theta-e ridge aligns with the mid-level trough scattered showers/storms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Lower heights, clouds, and precip favors cooler temps as well. Isolated-scattered storms will likely be confined to the mtns Thursday-Friday as evidenced by SB instability minima and dry air across SE NM/NW PB. High temp trend will correspond accordingly with the most notable increase expected across SE NM and W-NW PB. Still the mid-level pattern can be favorable for precip with ridge to e, trof the w, and sly mid-level flow in between. If the sly mid-level flow can persist a rich moist axis may align across the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 72 93 72 94 / 0 0 10 10 Carlsbad 73 96 71 94 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 74 93 73 95 / 10 10 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 95 70 95 / 10 10 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 70 90 67 87 / 20 30 20 20 Hobbs 71 93 70 92 / 10 10 10 10 Marfa 64 90 62 89 / 20 20 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 72 93 71 94 / 10 0 10 0 Odessa 72 93 71 93 / 10 10 10 10 Wink 74 98 72 97 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...10
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 145 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082- 270>282-171845- Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains- Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines- Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler- Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell- Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains- Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County- Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains- Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin- Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- 145 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021 /1245 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a chance of thunderstorms over Southeast New Mexico down to the Davis Mountains, with a slight chance tonight over the same area. The stronger storms may be accompanied by frequent lightning, gusty wind, and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Thunderstorm chances will continue over the higher elevations Saturday and Sunday. Lightning, wind, and brief heavy rain will be the main concerns. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in Midland, can be found on the internet at... https://weather.gov/midland
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
431 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021
NMZ027-028-162315-
Eddy County Plains NM-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County NM-
431 PM MDT Fri Jul 16 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM MDT...
At 431 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Hope, moving east at 25 mph.
Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Seven Rivers Airport, Brantley Lake State Park and Lakewood.
LAT...LON 3252 10485 3252 10484 3271 10484 3282 10444
3250 10431 3236 10485
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 249DEG 22KT 3263 10468
88Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
858 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021
TXZ067-274-170245-
Ward TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
858 PM CDT Fri Jul 16 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL REEVES AND WEST CENTRAL
WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...
At 858 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pecos, moving north at 10 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Pecos, Toyah Lake and Pecos Municipal Airport.
This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 24 and 47.
LAT...LON 3117 10347 3128 10378 3155 10367 3148 10342
3137 10338
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 198DEG 10KT 3140 10353
88The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 143 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:01 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm moved across Reeves County and produced wind damage near Pecos. It was likely a microburst with winds estimated to be 90 mph. The winds damaged three travel trailers. The time was estimated from radar. The cost of damage is a very rough estimate.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 972101.