Rain and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front in late December were sufficient enough to drop areas from eastern Starr/Jim Hogg County from Severe (D2) Drought status. though pockets of the King Ranch (Kenedy/Brooks) through farmland of eastern Hidalgo, western Willacy, and western Cameron missed the helpful rain.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Rain and thunderstorms associated with a strong cold front in late December were sufficient enough to drop areas from eastern Starr/Jim Hogg County from Severe (D2) Drought status. Improvements were seen across all but far western portions of Deep South Texas (western Starr/Jim Hogg/Zapata)...though pockets of the King Ranch (Kenedy/Brooks) through farmland of eastern Hidalgo, western Willacy, and western Cameron missed the helpful rain.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 4, 11:24 PM CST, 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1124 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 .DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION...Fog is expected to develop shortly with IFR and lower conditions anticipated before or shortly after 09Z. Light winds, clear skies and sufficient surface moisture to combine for fog formation overnight. IFR continues to at least 15-16Z with a steadily lifting of the fog. VFR resumes for Tuesday afternoon with a moderate southeast wind. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 540 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below. AVIATION...VFR prevails through at least 05/06Z then flying conditions expected to deteriorate as conditions favor fog development. Probabilities increase and confidence is high for a steady lowering of visibilities (IFR to VLIFR) with some stratus development after midnight with lowest visibilities between 09-15Z Tuesday. A low rise in visibilities and the ceilings with winds remaining light through mid-morning Tuesday. VFR expected Tuesday afternoon with light south winds. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021/ SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): A 500 mb ridge over the western US will continue to move east through the short term with subsidence leading to fair weather conditions across Deep South Texas through Tuesday evening. A weak cold front will move into the CWA tonight stalling out before retreating as a warm front on Tuesday. This boundary along with low level moisture and light winds will allow fog to develop once again across portions of the CWA. Fog may be dense at times falling to 1/4 mile or less. Temperatures overnight tonight will fall in the mid to upper 40s north to upper 50s and low 60s along the coast. For Tuesday, temperatures will rise into the upper 70s and low 80s under partly to mostly sunny skies. Increasing low level moisture could produce some showers across portions of the CWA Tuesday night with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): A major 500 mb closed low will dig across the South Central Plains States around midweek and this will push a pretty decent cold front through the area Wed Night. Some decent moisture and CAPE values advect out ahead of this front mainly over the coastline and the marine locations. So will maintain the best pops across these locations with also some mention of isold thunder with the fropa. After this 500 mb closed low exits the region quickly to the east, a relatively dry zonal 500 mb pattern will prevail over the region through the end of the work week. Later this upcoming weekend, a pretty vigorous 500 mb short wave will push into TX from the Rockies Sat and Sun. The approach of this trough will bring another cold front down into the RGV late Sat or Sun potentially increasing the pops a bit. Since the 500 mb pattern is pretty progressive from west to east throughout the longer range period, do not expect major outbreaks of cold air. The CAA will likely only result in dropping temps down close to climo through next Sun. The ECMWF and GFS continue to show run to run/model to model differences through next weekend. For the Wed system, the GFS places the 500 mb closed low more northwards versus the ECMWF. Then later this coming weekend, significant differences show up between the two longer range models with the GFS showing a faster moving system versus the ECMWF. Run to run consistency with both the ECMWF and the GFS models is also low with the system next weekend with both models swinging back and forth between wetter/drier and warmer/colder solutions. So will opt for a model blend throughout Days 7/8. Overall forecast confidence is only average today. MARINE (Now through Tuesday Night): Favorable marine conditions will prevail through Tuesday night. A weak cold front will move into South Texas tonight but with the surface gradient remaining weak, winds will continue to be light. Increasing low level moisture Tuesday into Tuesday night will allow for some showers to develop, especially Tuesday night, across the Gulf waters. Otherwise, low seas and light south to southeasterly winds will continue through the period. Wednesday through Saturday Night: The expected fropa late Wed will likely produce some sustained SCA conditions for the lower TX Gulf waters from Wed Night into Thurs. The PGF will then slacken from late Thurs through next Sat as relatively weaker surface ridging spreads of the lower TX coastal area. The PGF will then likely tighten up somewhat late next Sat as the surface ridging increases ahead of the next 500 mb short wave. Accordingly, SCA conditions will be possible later this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 76 63 76 / 0 10 20 40 BROWNSVILLE 61 78 64 78 / 0 10 20 40 HARLINGEN 58 78 62 78 / 0 10 20 50 MCALLEN 57 77 63 78 / 0 10 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 49 79 61 78 / 0 10 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 72 68 73 / 0 10 20 50 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61-Castillo/63-KC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 414 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-052215- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- 414 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight Areas of dense fog are expected late tonight into early Tuesday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach Wednesday through Thursday and again Saturday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-052215- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 414 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small Craft Advisories may be needed along the lower Texas coast, especially across the offshore Gulf of Mexico waters beyond 20 nautical miles, Wednesday night into Thursday and again late Saturday through Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1016 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 TXZ248>257-351-353-050900- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron- Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Including the cities of Zapata, Hebbronville, Falfurrias, Sarita, Rio Grande City, Roma, McAllen, Edinburg, Pharr, Mission, Weslaco, Raymondville, Brownsville, Harlingen, Port Mansfield, Port Isabel, South Padre Island, Laguna Heights, Laguna Vista, and San Manuel 1016 PM CST Mon Jan 4 2021 ...Dense Fog Anticipated Overnight... Clear skies, light winds and sufficient surface moisture will lead to the formation of fog overnight. Patches of fog are beginning to form over the northern Ranchlands with visibilities between 3 and 5 miles. As winds continue to weaken a more rapid expansion of the fog as well as a lowering of visibilities is anticipated. Areas to widespread dense fog can be expected between the hours of 3 AM to at least 9 AM Tuesday with visibilities lowering between 1/4 to 1/2 mile and occasionally dropping below 1/4 mile. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Use caution if traveling as visibility may change rapidly in a short amount of time. Use low beam headlights and leave extra distance between your vehicle and others on the road. GB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Rain and thunderstorms acted to improve Severe (D2) Drought conditions across central and southern portions of Brooks County.
A band of rain and thunderstorms at the turn of the calendar year would help improve drought conditions from Severe (D2) to Moderate (D1) across eastern portions of Starr County. Severe to Extreme (D3) Conditions would continue elsewhere through the 18th.
Rain and thunderstorms in a band from eastern Starr through northwest Hidalgo, western Brooks, and eastern Jim Hogg County helped improve Severe (D2) Drought to Moderate (D1) conditions across western portions of Northern Hidalgo County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 930742, 930745, 930747.