Another month of below normal precipitation kept Far West Texas in Extreme to Exceptional Drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
Another month of below normal precipitation kept Far West Texas in Extreme to Exceptional Drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 10:08 PM MST, 1 hour 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1008 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 .AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE VFR conditions with SCT-BKN250. Winds will remain light, generally under 10 knots with ISO G20kts, favoring an E'LY direction for most sites. && 34 .PREV DISCUSSION...210 PM MST Sun Jan 31 2021... .SYNOPSIS... An upper ridge dominates the weather pattern for the first half of the week. Therefore, expect a warming trend to continue through Wednesday. The next Pacific storm system arrives on Thursday. It brings breezy to windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and chances for lowland rain and high elevation mountain snow showers. Mild to cooler temperatures prevail for the second half of the week as a northerly flow settles over New Mexico and west Texas. && 29 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday... Upper ridge will be slowly shifting east over the area during the short term. This will allow for increasing high clouds over the region tonight. Expect cloud cover, and persistent east winds of 5 to 15 mph bringing in higher low level moisture to help keep overnight lows warmer than last night. All models and indicating fairly thick coverage by morning, but some breaks developing going into the afternoon, especially south. Current thinking is the clouds will not have a major effect on high for Monday and went on the warm side of guidance, if not a couple degrees above. && 26 .LONG TERM... Weak upper ridge continues to slowly move east as a Pacific storm system slowly descends to our area. A warming trend persists with well above normal temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. We will have periods of high to mid level clouds, but they won't affect much the warm up over the next few days. Lee-cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will lead to breezy conditions on Wednesday, as the surface pressure gradient tightens, and the 850 mb winds increase to 20 kts. Wednesday night into Thursday is when the next system moves over the area. However, the latest run of the ECMWF decided to abort what it had been showing over the past couple of days. So, now this brings uncertainty in the forecast. At least, impacts in the region continue to be minor. No worries. The EC solution now ejects a closed low from the main trough, that wobbles over the eastern Pacific. While the main upper trough, similar to the GFS, continues to track east. Because of this split the EC now has less moisture content. Thus, less chances for precipitation. We will keep an eye on this system, and see what the next model runs say. Rainfall accumulations in the lowlands appear to be below 0.15 inches, while snow amounts in the mountains should be below 2 inches. The best chances for snow are in elevations above 8000 ft due to the moisture coming from the tropics. This storm system also brings windy conditions with 850mb winds between 20 to 40 kts between the GFS and ECMWF. Temperatures drop significantly behind the upper trough. Although, we are not expecting much precipitation after Thursday. For comparison, temps on Wednesday will be in the low to mid 70s in the lowlands, then drop about 10-12 degrees on Thursday. We will have a sort of slow cooling trend from Friday through the weekend due to cool air advection from a mostly northerly flow over the Rockies. About a degree is lost each day, not really significant. Also by next Saturday, a weak back door cold front pushes more cold air from the plains into southern NM and far west TX. && 29 .FIRE WEATHER... An upper ridge over the area for the next couple days will allow temperatures to continue warming with highs in the 60s over all of the lowlands by Tuesday. East winds at the surface will bring in some higher dew points for Monday and keep relative humidities above 20 percent. Winds shift around to the west for Tue dropping RH's into the upper teens to mid 20s. Vent rates remain poor to fair through Tuesday before improving for the end of the week as an upper storm system moves across the region bringing windy conditions and a chance for some precipitation. && 26 && && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 37 63 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 37 60 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 33 61 36 70 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 31 59 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 25 46 30 52 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 32 59 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 36 55 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 32 60 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 36 61 33 69 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 38 63 42 71 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 27 63 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 33 65 36 75 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 33 59 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 64 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 34 63 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 35 63 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 25 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 31 63 35 70 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 34 62 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 35 61 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 28 54 36 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 25 52 30 61 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 25 54 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 25 55 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 30 58 33 70 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 33 58 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 24 57 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 28 57 33 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 29 61 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 28 60 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 31 57 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 34 62 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 31 63 33 71 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 61 36 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 36 60 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...None. TX...None. && 26/29/34
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 628 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-011330- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 628 AM MST Sun Jan 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. Windy conditions are expected Thursday, possibly at advisory levels but there is still some uncertainty. Rain showers and higher elevation snow is also expected late Wednesday into early Friday, but nothing significant. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Fausett
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Exceptional(D4) drought continued across the entire zone through the month of February.
Extreme(D3) drought remained across the entire zone through the month of February. The El Paso Airport reported 0.40 inches of precipitation which was 0.06 inches below normal.
The entire zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought through February.
Exceptional(D4) drought continued over the eastern half of the zone while the west remained in Extreme(D3) drought.
The eastern half of the zone remained in Exceptional(D4) drought while the west continued to be in Extreme(D3) drought.
The entire zone remained in Extreme(D3) drought. The Fort Hancock Cooperative Observer reported 0.21 inches of precipitation which was 0.19 inches below normal.
The eastern half of the zone remained in Exceptional(D4) drought while the west continued to be in Extreme(D3) drought.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 942815, 942816, 942817, 942818, 942819, 942820, 942821.