Abundant monsoonal moisture over the region combined with warm surface temperatures to create another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms across the entire region. Storms were mostly unorganized with the lack of shear available in the atmosphere.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Abundant monsoonal moisture over the region combined with warm surface temperatures to create another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms across the entire region. Storms were mostly unorganized with the lack of shear available in the atmosphere. However, one storm was able to produce a severe wind gust in Hall County. Showers and thunderstorms persisted through the evening and early morning hours producing heavy rainfall. Many locations on the Caprock recorded anywhere from around 0.5 inch to 1.5 inches of rainfall. The heaviest rain fell across the central South Plains, including Lubbock, where 1.5 to 3.0 inches were common. This caused a rapid rise in the Double Mountain Fork of the Brazos near Buffalo Springs Lake. Water flowing over Farm to Market 835 prompted the road to be closed for much of the day on the 14th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 13, 1:19 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 219 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 .SHORT TERM... Showers and thunderstorms have been persistent through the day from southeastern New Mexico northward to Clovis then arcing northeastward into the Texas Panhandle, in general tracking closely with mid-level monsoonal moisture plume that extends northeastward from northwestern Mexico. The location of the moisture plume is expected to be the area that brings the most widespread precipitation through Saturday while isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the south and east of the plume will be possible late this afternoon and this evening as the air mass becomes increasingly convectively unstable. Through the next 24 hours the monsoonal plume is progged to shift southward as upper level high pressure over the Rockies is able to build to the southeast behind a short wave trough exiting the central Plains to the Ohio Valley. As a result the expectation is that the more widespread and persistent precipitation will begun to push further into the forecast area this evening with western areas favored over the east. While storm total precip amounts could reach 1-2 inches with the persistent area of precipitation, rain rates are expected to remain relatively low. Convection outside this main area should be able to tap into some better instability with a greater, although still limited, risk for isolated microbursts and associated strong/severe wind and heavy rainfall this evening. Lingering precipitation and cloud cover should keep temperatures down some on Saturday, again moreso west vs east, where precip chances will remain greater. .LONG TERM... An upper-level high over the western CONUS will expand going into Sunday, bringing northerly flow aloft and shunting monsoonal moisture south. This will help to decrease rain chances over the region from north to south through the day on Sunday. An upper trough will dig into the Plains Sunday into Monday, decreasing heights over the region. A shortwave trough will rotate around the high to our west and drive a "cold" front through the forecast area in late Monday into Tuesday. This will bring our next chance of rain. However, widespread rainfall is not expected, with the front being relatively weak and moisture aloft somewhat lacking. The high to our west will move towards the region by mid-week as the trough over the Plains moves to the east, and a trough deepens into the northwestern CONUS out of western Canada. As the upper high moves towards the region, heights will increase, resulting in temperatures returning to near normal. The trough over the northwestern CONUS will continue to deepen through mid-week and begin to transition towards the east. This could bring another chance of precipitation going into late next week. GKendrick && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 07/10
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 253 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 TXZ021>044-140800- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 253 AM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected once again this afternoon and evening. The strongest storms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts to 55 mph and heavy rain which may lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Saturday through Sunday. Some storms will pose a threat for localized flooding due to their slow movement and heavy rainfall rates. The storms are not expected to produce severe winds or hail. By Sunday night and continuing through Thursday, storm chances will be much more limited.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
414 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021
TXZ039-132145-
Yoakum TX-
414 PM CDT Fri Aug 13 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Yoakum
County through 445 PM CDT...
At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Plains, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Plains and Bronco.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3339 10271 3307 10272 3306 10302 3339 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 178DEG 23KT 3310 10290
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
RMCQUEENThe Amarillo radar (KAMA), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:43 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Lesley measured severe wind gusts from 1542 CST through 1545 CST. A peak wind gust of 63 mph was measured between 1544 CST and 1545 CST.
Heavy rainfall over central Lubbock County from Friday evening through Saturday morning caused a rise in the Double Mountain Fork of the Brazos River. Up to two feet of water was reportedly flowing over Farm to Market Road 835 west of Buffalo Springs Lake prompting the closure of the roadway. A USGS gage upstream of this location measured streamflow of up to 1200 cfs.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 968964, 969236.