On the afternoon of the 12th, scattered thunderstorms developed across the central South Plains under a very deeply mixed and and hot atmosphere. A couple of these storms became severe over Lubbock and Swisher Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the 12th, scattered thunderstorms developed across the central South Plains under a very deeply mixed and and hot atmosphere. A couple of these storms became severe over Lubbock and Swisher Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 1:46 PM CST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 246 PM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 .SHORT TERM... Monsoonal moisture has pushed back towards New Mexico today, which will limit how far east storms will make it into the South and Rolling Plains later this afternoon into tonight. A few features of interest exist this afternoon in New Mexico, which could help to enhance our chances of precipitation over the South Plains region. The standard summertime surface trough remains draped over eastern New Mexico providing surface convergence. Two Mesoscale Convective Vertices (MCVs) also exist (one moving into central New Mexico and one over southeastern New Mexico). These features could result in a mid-level lift over eastern New Mexico and bring increased chances of convective initiation near the New Mexico / Texas state line. Similar to yesterday, meager shear will keep storms mostly unorganized. These storms should slowly move east and northeast into the area and could cause locally heavy rain and downburst winds. Guidance is somewhat hinting that the MCV over southeastern New Mexico may move towards the forecast area later today and allow for additional storm development within the South Plains. Storms should decrease in coverage shortly after sunset; however, a low-level jet is expected to develop later tonight. This jet would help to reintensify any ongoing showers and thunderstorms, and if the MCV is near the area, it could help develop additional thunderstorms tonight. If this activity occurs, it should come to an end shortly after sunrise. Cloud cover over the South Plains and western Rolling Plains will help to keep temperatures cooler tomorrow. A weakness is expected to form within the periphery of the upper ridge that is currently over the region tomorrow afternoon. As the weakness moves over the higher terrain of New Mexico and a surface trough to our west, it will promote storm development. This activity is progged to move east and southeast into the Panhandle and South Plains regions later tomorrow. Storm hazards will be similar to what is expected today. GKendrick .LONG TERM... The weak inverted upper level trough providing the moist monsoonal plume mainly across the western South Plains will weaken and retreat to the southwest by the middle of the weekend. But a passing upper trough in eastern North America will send a weak outflow infused cold front into the area which could generate storm chances Saturday, or perhaps not until Sunday mainly just to our south. We will retain thunderstorm chances through the weekend similar to previous forecasts. But confidence in timing and location of these storms during the weekend in particular remains low. Cooler temperatures also look valid. And if an earlier passage of this front/outflow occurs, highs on Saturday could be somewhat cooler than presently forecast. By early next week flow aloft will be weak northwesterly, with new solutions runs showing a bit of a more pronounced upper trough re-carving the trough just to our east, and perhaps supporting low thunder chances Monday at least. Beyond, we expect the monsoonal plume aloft to recover back across the area by mid week anyway, and thus some chance for low thunderstorm coverage. The first half of August is typically "moist" this area, and forcing typically weak, but takes little to generate storm chances. Looks like that is the case with this pattern as well. RMcQueen && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 10/05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 TXZ021>044-130900- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 12 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight with the highest probabilities near the New Mexico state line. The storms are not expected to become severe, but by late afternoon into the evening, stronger storms will be capable of very localized heavy rain due to slow movement. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will also be possible with the stronger storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Thunderstorms are in the forecast for the southern Texas Panhandle, South Plains and Rolling Plains Friday through Monday, then again on Wednesday, with the greatest threat for hazardous weather during this period being severe wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall also may develop late Saturday into Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 35 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:22 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Wolfforth measured severe wind gusts from 1525 CST through 1526 CST. A peak wind gust of 61 mph was measured at 1526 CST.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Tulia measured a wind gust to 67 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 968900, 968901.