A moderate rip current risk prevailed across the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to seas 3 to 5 feet and winds out of the east at 5 to 10 knots. A northerly swell was invading the Atlantic waters, and the risk was expected to increase to high in the evening hours.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A moderate rip current risk prevailed across the northern coast of Puerto Rico due to seas 3 to 5 feet and winds out of the east at 5 to 10 knots. A northerly swell was invading the Atlantic waters, and the risk was expected to increase to high in the evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 9, 4:40 PM AST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 PM AST Tue Nov 9 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally fair weather, though with a typical shower pattern, will
continue under stable conditions aloft. There is a high risk of rip
currents for the north coast of Puerto Rico overnight tonight.
Tomorrow, the high risk will extend to northwestern Puerto Rico, as
well as Culebra and northwestern St. Thomas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...
Patches of low-level moisture continue to make their way across the
region from time to time, with one currently over western Puerto
Rico and adjacent waters, and one pushing over the USVI, Vieques and
Culebra. Precipitable water was 1.7 inches in the 12Z upper air
sounding; similar values were seen in the Total Precipitable Water
imagery from GOES-16 at the time, and similar values can now be seen
in the eastern patch of moisture. All that being said, the moisture
is sequestered in the lower levels of the atmosphere, with a strong
capping inversion starting just below 700 hPa, resembling a table in
the sounding. Therefore, development is going to struggle above
around 10k feet - significant organized convection is unlikely. With
the mid- to upper-level ridges remaining in place, this will
continue to be the case. Generally fair weather is expected, though
there will remain a typical shower pattern supported by patches of
low-level moisture.
.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...From Prev Discussion...
The GFS 500mb anomaly analysis suggests that the mid-upper level
ridge will hold strong through early next week. This will lead to
generally dry and stable air mass at mid-levels trapping the
moisture in the low levels. Under this pattern, organized
convection will be limited or even suppressed due to the
presence of the inversion cap. On Friday, a front will stall far
north of the islands, while allowing fragments of moisture to
stream westward over the forecast area. During the weekend and
early next week, migratory highs swinging north of the area will
keep the shallow clusters of clouds and showers streaming across
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. This low-level moisture
will be carried by the trade winds favoring the light passing
showers over the windward areas from time to time. The exact
timing of these passing showers is difficult to forecast
especially this far out in the forecast. Western Puerto Rico will
likely experience shallow afternoon convection each afternoon due
to the sea breeze convergence followed by clearing during the
evening and overnight.
&&
.AVIATION...
A patch of clouds will create SCT-BKN skies btwn FL025-FL080.
Expect VFR conditions with a few trade wind SHRA/-SHRA moving
across terminals at times. SHRA/-SHRA will continue across the
Cordillera Central creating mountain obscuration thru 09/22z.
Expect ENE-E winds at 10-15 kts with sea breeze variations thru
09/23z, becoming calm to light and vrb, and returning from the E
at 10-15kt after 10/13z.
&&
.MARINE...
Seas of up to 6 feet are possible overnight tonight in the offshore
Atlantic waters tonight as a northwesterly swell makes its way into
the region. This is supported by observations, as there are 6 to 8
foot seas at Buoy 41046 there, which suggests seas of 5 to 6 feet
overnight tonight.
However, model guidance suggests seas of up to 7 feet being possible
in the offshore Atlantic waters by as early as late tomorrow
night/early Thursday morning. Presently, available observations
don't really support this - though this could just be due to the
geographical limitations in available observations. Looking farther
afield, Buoy 41049 has seas of 8 to 10 feet at 10 to 11 seconds.
Wave direction there is westerly to west-northwesterly, so not all
of this energy is directed this way. Even if it was, that still
suggests seas of 6 feet or less overnight tomorrow night. I
certainly would not rule out the potential for hazardous conditions,
though, especially as we move through the day on Thursday. Model
guidance shows conditions not getting much worse than marginally
hazardous in the next few days. Because of this, I have held off on
issuing a Small Craft Advisory for the time being. However,
interested parties should stay alert for the potential for hazardous
conditions and any changes to the forecast for the rest of this
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 77 87 / 30 20 70 30
STT 76 87 77 86 / 40 30 50 40
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for North
Central-Northeast-Northwest-San Juan and Vicinity-Southeast.
High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
Thursday night for Culebra-Mayaguez and Vicinity.
VI...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday morning through late
Thursday night for St.Thomas...St. John...and Adjacent
Islands.
AM...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....CRS
PUBLIC DESK...GL/GRSPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo. Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 413 AM AST martes 9 de noviembre de 2021 AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-100815- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste- Este Interior-Norte Central-Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad- Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra- Vieques-Las aguas costeras cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y Caribe- 413 AM AST martes 9 de noviembre de 2021 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para Puerto Rico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Atlantico. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Oleaje...Mares picados por oleaje de hasta 6 pies se esperan a traves de las aguas locales mar afuera del Atlantico esta noche. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas para las playas al norte de Puerto Rico y Culebra comenzando esta noche. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes... Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas continuara hasta el lunes para las playas del norte de Puerto Rico incluyendo Culebra. Advertencias para los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas se pudieran necesitar desde el miercoles en la noche hasta el jueves en la noche por oleaje de hasta 7 pies en las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre inundaciones, oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales. AMZ715-725-VIZ001-002-100815- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas del Atlantico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 413 AM AST martes 9 de noviembre de 2021 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses y las aguas costeras adyacentes. .Dia Uno...Hoy y esta noche .Oleaje...Mares picados por oleaje de hasta 6 pies se esperan a traves de las aguas locales mar afuera del Atlantico esta noche. .Corrientes Marinas...Existe un riesgo moderados de corrientes marinas para las playas del noroeste de St. Tomas comenzando esta noche. .Dias dos hasta el siete...miercoles a lunes... Un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas se espera desde el miercoles hasta el viernes para las playas del noroeste de St. Tomas. Advertencias para los operadores de embarcaciones pequenas se pudieran necesitar desde el miercoles en la noche hasta el jueves en la noche por oleaje de hasta 7 pies en las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... No se espera activacion amplia de observadores. Favor de reportar cualquier informacion sobre vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan mientras siguen las indicaciones de las autoridades locales y estatales.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 43-year-old male and a 46-year-old male swimming along Courtyard by Marriot Hotel in Balneario Carolina drowned in a rip current.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, San Juan and Vicinity | 2021-11-09 | 43 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, San Juan and Vicinity | 2021-11-09 | 46 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 993071.