Heavy rain brought flooding to portions of eastern Centre and Northeast Mifflin county on September 23rd. 50 inches of rain.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Heavy rain brought flooding to portions of eastern Centre and Northeast Mifflin county on September 23rd.
The National Weather Service State College reported that the area around Aaronsburg, Spring Mills, and Alfarata in eastern Centre and northeastern Mifflin Counties received between 5-5.50 inches of rain.
Flooding and road closures were reported in State College, Bellefonte, Park Forest Village, Woodward, Boalsburg, Pleasant Gap, Stormstown, Lemont, Zion, Belleville, Houserville, Mill Hall, Pine Grove Mills, Milesburg, and Coburn and on Elk Creek and Penn’s Creek.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 4:53 AM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 553 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A slow-moving cold front will push through eastern Pennsylvania today. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Friday, then another cold front is likely sweep southeast across the state late Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Atmospheric river preceding a deep upper level trough is transporting an anomalous plume of tropical moisture into central Pa early this morning. The focus this morning will be along and just ahead of slow-moving cold front, where marginal instability will combine with pwats near 2 inches to produce torrential downpours and possible flooding. The latest HRRR, as well as the 00Z HREF, continue to support a fairly widespread 2-3 inches of rain across the eastern half of the forecast area this morning into early afternoon, with local amounts to around 4 inches in a narrow corridor from Tioga County south through Adams County. This amount of rain is likely to cause flooding based on latest 3hr FFG guidance. Rapid runoff and fast-rising streams/creeks/tribs are a concern along with urban flash flood threat. Latest guidance indicates the front and associated ribbon of heaviest rain will push through the Susq Valley later this morning, then exit the eastern edge of the forecast area by around 18Z. However, lighter post-frontal rain associated with fgen forcing beneath right entrance of upper jet streak should resulting in lingering lighter rain for a few hours after fropa. Latest guidance support the possibility of embedded thunder with convection across the eastern half of the forecast area this morning. Overall the severe weather threat appears low due to limited surface based instability. However, can't rule out severe weather, or even a brief tornado, across the extreme southeast corner of the forecast area late this morning. Latest RAP indicates capes near 1000 J/kg across parts of Lancaster County around 15Z with strong 0-1km and deep layer shear. The arrival of much drier air should result in breaking clouds late this morning across the western half of the forecast area. Model RH time sections indicate downsloping flow will yield mostly sunny skies in the ridge/valley region by early afternoon and across the Susq Valley by late in the day. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Any lingering showers are expected to exit the eastern edge of the forecast area by this evening. High pressure and associated low-pwat air mass will build into the region tonight and Friday, bringing fair and cool conditions. The air mass crossing Lk Erie is cold enough to generate lake effect rain showers. However, a southwest flow in the boundary layer will keep that activity north of the forecast area. Mostly clear skies, light wind and wet ground will likely promote patchy valley fog toward dawn Friday. Cool temps aloft should result in a fair amount of cumulus/stratocu across the northwest mountains Friday, while mostly sunny skies prevail elsewhere. Mixing down model 850mb temps yields expected highs ranging from the low 60s across the northern mountains, to around 70F across the Lower Susq Valley. A digging upper trough and associated cold front are progged to push into the northwest part of Pa late Saturday. Latest guidance indicates the best chance of measurable showers from this moisture-starved front will be across the northwest mountains late Saturday. Sunshine and warm advection ahead of the front should result in a slightly milder Saturday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Although timing differences are certainly evident, fast moving short-wave energy moving through the cyclonic flow pattern aloft over the northeastern U.S. may lead to at least scattered showers by early next week, especially over the Alleghenies and northern mountains. Compared to our overall warm temperatures the last week or two, readings should cool back towards seasonal values for late September, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s, and lows in the 40s to mid 50s. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Anomalously high PWAT air spreading over the region this evening, bringing persistent showers to central/eastern portions of CWA. A cold front slowly pushing into central PA (located east of a line from KBFD/KFIG/KJST at 02z) focusing a more robust area of steady/heavier rain that will continue to work east into the highest PWAT air. MVFR to IFR restrictions will impact much of central PA this evening and through the overnight into Thu morning. Latest GLAMP focuses the IFR conditions over the northern third of region, including BFD/UNV/IPT, with MVFR working eastward from JST/AOO into the lower Susq around midnight. Drier air will move in behind the cold front, bringing potential improving conditions toward sunrise for JST/AOO, before conditions gradually improve further north and east as the rain pulls away. Outlook... Thu...Restrictions in RA/TSRA. CFROPA. Fri...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR cu. Sat...SHRA possible NW. Sun...SHRA possible N. Mon...No sig wx. && .CLIMATE... Autumn has begun. The Fall Equinox 2021 occurred at 3:20 PM (1920 UTC) on Wednesday, September 22. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for PAZ028-037-041-042- 046-049>053-056>059-063>066. Flash Flood Watch until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ005-006- 010>012-017>019-025>027-034>036-045. && SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...RXR/Travis AVIATION...RXR/Travis CLIMATE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 PAZ028-037-041-046-049-050-056-063-064-241015- Juniata-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams- 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004-010-017-024-025-033>035-241015- Warren-Elk-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ005-006-011-012-018-019-026-027-036-045-241015- McKean-Potter-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Franklin-Southern Clinton- 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ042-051>053-057>059-065-066-241015- Sullivan-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- York-Lancaster- 613 AM EDT Thu Sep 23 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible in a few spots through late this morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread flooding was reported across the region from heavy rain. Centre County declared a disaster emergency for the Penns Valley area.
Heavy rainfall brought flooding around the Penns and Elk Creek areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 995033, 995034.