Showers and thunderstorms developed well ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon of May 26, 2021. Discrete storms developed over the central mountains, likely aided by a lee-side trough, and these cells eventually congealed into a line that crossed the Lower Susquehanna Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed well ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon of May 26, 2021. Discrete storms developed over the central mountains, likely aided by a lee-side trough, and these cells eventually congealed into a line that crossed the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Well behind this line, another line of storms formed just ahead of the approaching front. Wind damage was the primary weather hazard throughout this event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 26, 12:13 PM EST, 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 113 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and muggy today with scattered severe storms possible during the afternoon and evening. Pleasant and dry weather conditions are expected on Thursday before a widespread soaking rainfall brings much cooler temperatures Friday into Saturday. Look for gradually improving conditions through the remainder of the Memorial Day weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... 1PM/17Z: Severe thunderstorm watch #205 issued for the entire CWA valid until 8PM. A continued/gradual uptick in convective coverage and intensity is expected through the afternoon. The primary thunderstorm hazard remains locally damaging winds. Previous Discussion Issued: 1052 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 1445Z/1045AM: Minor changes to near term grids with low clouds burning off across the LSV and temps quickly rising toward 80F. SPC lowered the prob of 1" diameter hail from 15% to 5% with the 13Z D1 SWO update. Otherwise, still anticipating gradual uptick in convection into early/mid afternoon with multicell clusters capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts. Previous Discussion Issued: 509 AM EDT Wed May 26 2021 A dry morning is in store for most or all of Central and Eastern PA, ith just a few isolated and brief showers drifting northeast across the region. Temps will start out in the 60 to 65F range and will crest this afternoon in the U70s to L80s (Mtns) and mid to upper 80s in the Central and Southern Valleys. Mostly clear skies and light wind prior to 06Z helped to develop an area of low clouds and some patchy dense fog across the South Central Mtns. These clouds will mix out between 12-14Z, and be followed by a mid and high cloud deck into the early afternoon hours. As a tongue of higher, deep-layer moisture moves in from the Ohio Valley later this morning through this afternoon. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop, and move east across the Alleghenies toward the noon hour. This convection will increase in intensity and coverage as it moves east across the Central Ridge and Valley region of the state this afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could become severe with hail and brief, localized strong downburst wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph possible. Latest 26/00Z HREF supports increasing convection beneath the favorable right entrance region of a 90 kt upper level jet located over southern Ontario and Quebec. Convection- allowing guidance supports mostly discrete convection, as the strongest low level convergence remains over the Grt Lks with surface cold front and possibly over eastern Pa with pre-frontal trough. However, backing deep layer shear vectors may transition the event into line segments with some possible broken-s radar signatures associated with localized strong wind gusts where the shear can become nearly orthogonal with the line segments. SPC has expanded the SLGT risk to cover all of PA for this afternoon and early evening. Model soundings indicate mixing will result in falling surface dewpoints in the afternoon across much of the area, so anticipate CAPE only in the 500-1000 range for much of the region. The exception could be over the eastern counties, where there is enhanced southerly flow/moisture advection ahead of pre-frontal trough. A cold front will march southeast across the state late today and tonight, ushering in drier and notable cooler air. && .SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A much drier and comfortably cooler airmass will move into the state later tonight and Thursday as a large area of sfc high pressure (1031 MB) situated just north of Lake Superior builds south and over the region late tonight through Thursday. Afternoon high temps on Thursday will only be around 70F across the Northern Mtns of the state and will likely top the 80F mark across the Lower Susq Valley. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A potent upper air disturbance dropping southeast from the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday will help to organize and slowly strengthen an area of surface low pressure, that will move across Southwestern PA then the Virginias Friday and Friday night. These weather features will team up to bring a widespread, chilly and soaking rainfall Friday afternoon and night. Latest GEFS and ECENS currently supports a widespread 0.5 to 1.5 inch rainfall. which is generally welcome news as much of the area has been dry recently. Cool conditions appear likely Saturday with lingering showers possible, as deep upper level trough passes over the state. The bulk of model guidance supports drier and not quite as cool conditions Sunday, as upper trough slowly shifts east of Pa. However, there is still some model spread here with the slower operational GFS indicating at least a small chance of showers Sunday. Latest EURO has also slowed down the eastward shift of the upper trough, so took temps down some on Sunday. All medium range guidance indicates dry and warmer conditions early next week, as surface high drifts off of the Mid Atlantic coast. A weak, moisture- starved shortwave pressing south into the area could possibly bring a few showers by Tuesday. ECENS and GEFS plumes support POPs in the slight chance category. && .AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low ceilings and fog at southern airfields will clear up in the morning hours after sunrise and return to VFR. Wind gusts pick up by midday at all airfields. Showers and thunderstorms are likely in the afternoon and evening hours, which will bring intermittent local reductions to MVFR. Conditions will return to VFR in the nighttime hours on Wednesday as storms diminish. Outlook... Thursday...generally VFR. Friday...Conditions becoming poor with widespread showers. Saturday...Improving conditions. Still a chance of showers. Sunday...VFR conditions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Travis AVIATION...Martin/Gutierrez
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 104 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-271715- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin- Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming- Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour- Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 104 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 205 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Severe Thunderstorm Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. MRS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1238 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021
PAZ024-033-261730-
Somerset PA-Cambria PA-
1238 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...
At 1236 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 6 miles northwest of Belsano to near Ligonier to
6 miles west of Seven Springs. Movement was east at 30 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Somerset, Westmont, Windber, Ebensburg, Belmont,
Nanty-Glo, Portage, Northern Cambria, Geistown, Southmont, Patton,
Cresson, Gallitzin, Friedens, Vinco, Loretto, Boswell, Dale and East
Conemaugh.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4011 7922 4012 7917 4041 7897 4064 7884
4063 7844 4056 7847 4051 7854 4037 7856
4035 7860 4031 7864 4023 7866 4006 7876
3998 7877 4005 7928
TIME...MOT...LOC 1636Z 261DEG 28KT 4060 7896 4026 7919 4006 7943
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
200 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021
PAZ028-056-261845-
Perry PA-Juniata PA-
200 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF PERRY AND JUNIATA
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM EDT...
At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Richfield to near Mexico to Spruce Hill. Movement
was east at 35 mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Newport, Mcalisterville, Spruce Hill, Richfield, Mexico, New Buffalo,
Walnut, Liverpool, Mifflintown, Port Royal, Thompsontown,
Millerstown, Mifflin and East Salem.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4048 7761 4051 7761 4056 7753 4058 7738
4069 7728 4068 7716 4069 7712 4068 7709
4068 7704 4064 7700 4065 7694 4059 7696
4057 7699 4046 7695 4043 7700
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 258DEG 29KT 4067 7711 4053 7728 4048 7747
ColbertSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 207 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 PAZ035-036-261830- Fulton PA-Franklin PA- 207 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FULTON AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT... At 207 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near McConnellsburg, moving east at 30 mph. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph are possible. Locations impacted include... Chambersburg, Greencastle, St. Thomas, Mercersburg, McConnellsburg, Marion, Fort Loudon, Big Cove Tannery, Williamson and Upton. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations and available television stations for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3981 7807 3994 7809 4004 7770 3980 7763 TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 260DEG 25KT 3988 7799 Travis
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
211 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021
PAZ019-026-027-261900-
Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
211 PM EDT Wed May 26 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...
AND SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...
At 211 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
State College, moving east at 40 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
State College, Lewistown, Park Forest Village, Woodward, Boalsburg,
Pleasant Gap, Lemont, Burnham, Belleville, Houserville, Pine Grove
Mills, Milroy, Highland Park, Centre Hall, Yeagertown, Millheim,
Ramblewood, Reedsville, Aaronsburg and Juniata Terrace.
LAT...LON 4080 7799 4098 7741 4087 7733 4085 7736
4070 7735 4069 7730 4062 7749 4060 7750
4050 7794
TIME...MOT...LOC 1811Z 252DEG 34KT 4077 7785
ColbertThe State College radar (KCCX), 19 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:12 UTC.
28 thunderstorm wind, 2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in parts of State College Borough and Ferguson Township, including on Penn State's Old Main lawn.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires near Liverpool.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down and snapped numerous trees near Unityville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires on Light Street in Susquehanna Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in the Reedsville area.
A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-sized hail in Benton.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires near Millerstown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and knocked down a barn just north of Berrysburg off of Route 225.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires near New Buffalo.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees near the intersection of Route 147 and Seiders Road in Halifax Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto Rock Road near Natures Road to the east of Pine Grove.
A sub-severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 50 mph knocked down a large tree onto a home in the 600 block of South 29th Street in Paxtang.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and produced pea-sized hail near the intersection of Millerstown Road and Black Horse Tavern Road just southwest of Gettysburg.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires onto Swift Run Road to the west of New Oxford.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires along Route 72 north of Jonestown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in Cooke Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees along Bracken Street in Mundys Corner.
A severe thunderstorm produced a wind gust of 58 mph that was measured by an RWIS mesonet site located 3 miles north-northeast of Garrett along Route 219.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees onto Old Route 22 near Healy Road.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in the Hollidaysburg area.
A sub-severe thunderstorm produced nickel-sized hail just north of Columbia.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down numerous large trees in Long's Park and blew a trailer out of a parking lot and onto Harrisburg Pike across from Long's Park.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires between Mifflintown and McAlisterville.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees and wires in Thompsontown.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph uprooted or snapped several trees along Kline Hollow Road to the north of Liverpool.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down trees in Middlesex and Sliver Spring Townships.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down large branches onto Specktown Road near Gratz.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees and damaged outbuildings west of Valley View.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down numerous trees in Hegins Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down multiple trees in Auburn.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 951735, 951736, 951739, 951738, 951740, 951732, 951737, 951741, 951742, 951743, 951744, 951745, 951749, 951751, 951746, 951753, 951755, 951775, 951757, 951758, 951733, 951760, 951767, 951768, 951769, 951770, 951771, 951772, 951773, 951774.