Gusty winds and dry conditions fueled a wildfire on South Mountain near the York County-Cumberland County line to the west of Dillsburg on Sunday, March 14, 2021. Fire fighters believe the fire was started accidentally at Camp Tuckahoe.
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The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Gusty winds and dry conditions fueled a wildfire on South Mountain near the York County-Cumberland County line to the west of Dillsburg on Sunday, March 14, 2021. Fire fighters believe the fire was started accidentally at Camp Tuckahoe.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 14, 11:30 AM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1230 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will sweep south across Pennsylvania today, then Canadian high pressure will build into the region later today and Monday. A weakening southern stream shortwave will lift out of the Mississippi Valley into Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday. A more significant southern stream shortwave is likely to lift into the region during the second half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... SFC cold front has cleared south of the Mason/Dixon line with very little in the ways of clouds thanks to very dry sfc dewpoint air in the teens to around 20F and strong/deep-layer subsidence beneath the right exit region of a 170Kt jet over KROC at midday. Deepening cold advection this afternoon and evening will transport some bkn-ocnly ovc strato cu from the Lower Glakes with temps in the cloud layer falling into the favorable DGZ of -12 to -18C. This will bring some flurries or even a brief snow shower across the Ncent Mtns and locations east of KIPT, while the Middle Susq Valley could see some sprinkles from the thin and relatively high-based cloud layer. Elsewhere, high res models support a mainly sunny day. Deep mixing in forecast soundings support increasingly gusty northwest winds behind the front with near seasonable temperatures this afternoon. Bufkit indicates frequent gusts to around 30kts are likely by afternoon. See the fire weather section below for details on the fire weather watch. A few locations across the Northern mtns and Susq Valley could see a 35-40kt gust this afternoon during the period of strongest low-mid level cold advection and deepest vertical mixing. Slowly diminishing winds (late) and clear skies should allow temperatures to fall 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals tonight, as high pressure ridge noses into Pa from the Grt Lks. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... Monday looks mainly sunny and cool with much lighter winds, as surface ridge builds over Pennsylvania. A weakening southern stream shortwave is progged to approach from the Mississippi Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Latest guidance indicates the best chance of precipitation will come late Monday night into Tuesday morning, as weakening low level jet and modest isentropic lift works across the region. Model soundings look cold enough to support a wintry mix. However, precipitation should be spotty and very light. Waning large scale forcing is expected by Tuesday PM. However, a moist southeast flow is likely to result in lingering stratus and patchy drizzle into Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Evening Update...Raised PoPs some on Thurs, esp S, with better/continued agreement of guidance. Prev... Another system for Thursday. New EC shows that system may now be forced more to the east than northeast. This would keep it colder here but less QPF. Colder air to work in late next week, as system moves off the coast. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Good/VFR flying conditions will prevail through the this afternoon with the only issue being gusty winds. All locations will see winds ramping up this afternoon to 15-20 KTS with gusts to 30-35Kts lasting through the the early evening. Outlook... Mon...No sig wx expected. Breezy W/NW wind. Tue...Widespread reductions in -sn to -ra. Wed...No sig wx. Thu...Reductions possible in rain. && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through this evening for the area south of I-80 and east of I-99. Mostly sunny, windy and dry conditions will result in an elevated threat of wildfire spread later today. Frequent gusts over 30 mph are expected this afternoon, along with relative humidity falling to between 20-25 percent in the warning area. Dry conditions are also expected Monday. However, winds will be much lighter. && .CLIMATE... Daylight saving time (EST->EDT) began early today. remember to Spring forward and set those clocks, everyone! The first day of astronomical spring will be on Saturday, March 20th with the equinox to occur at 5:37 AM EDT. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ026>028- 034>036-049>053-056-057-059-063>066. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Dangelo/Martin AVIATION...Lambert/RXR/Tyburski FIRE WEATHER...Lambert CLIMATE...Lambert
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 1203 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-037-041-042-045-046-058- 151615- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield- Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming- Schuylkill- 1203 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ026>028-034>036-049>053-056-057-059-063>066-151615- Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder- Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland- Adams-York-Lancaster- 1203 PM EDT Sun Mar 14 2021 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Red Flag Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
Gusty winds (40mph) and dry conditions fueled a wildfire on South Mountain near the York County-Cumberland County line to the west of Dillsburg on Sunday, March 14, 2021. Fire fighters believe the fire was started accidentally at Camp Tuckahoe.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 940258.