Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and early evening of July 16, 2021, in a very warm, humid airmass just south of a stalled frontal boundary that was draped across northern Pennsylvania. A few of these storms produced wind damage, including a particularly tall cell that produced winds estimated by a NWS Survey Team to be 85 to 95 mph in a wet microburst near…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CTP wrote it up.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed during the afternoon and early evening of July 16, 2021, in a very warm, humid airmass just south of a stalled frontal boundary that was draped across northern Pennsylvania. A few of these storms produced wind damage, including a particularly tall cell that produced winds estimated by a NWS Survey Team to be 85 to 95 mph in a wet microburst near Haneyville in northern Clinton County. Flash flooding from heavy rains also occurred in Northumberland and Sullivan Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 12:48 PM EST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 148 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes will drift very slowly to the south tonight through the upcoming weekend as several weak waves of low pressure ride northeast along it. The very warm and humid airmass across Pennsylvania ahead of the front will help to create numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain and isolated strong wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening, and again during the same period Saturday. Drier air should push south into the northern part of the Commonwealth on Sunday, though scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are likely across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A slow moving upper trough is likely to linger over the area into much of next week, bringing a reprieve from excessive humidity and overall drier conditions. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Slow moving front focuses locally heavy afternoon and evening downpours over the NW today, where FFG values are the most lenient over central PA (over 2" per hour). Training cells will be watched closely by this evening over the NW Mountains and points east. Abundant sunshine over much of the rest of the this morning and early this afternoon has created a very warm and unstable airmass. SPC has a MRGL for SVR storms over much of the CWA through this evening, while WPC paints a SLGT Risk for excessive rainfall over the NW mtns through this evening. Heavy rain threat shifts eastward to include much of the northern half of central PA overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Flash Flood Watch issued for a large portion of north central PA tonight through Saturday evening with several rounds of heavy rainfall likely to produce excessive runoff on nearly saturated surface soil conditions. Rich moisture plume will stay draped across much of Central PA tonight and Saturday, bringing max coverage and highest intensity of convective rainfall, and raising potential flood concerns again for areas that have been very wet lately. WPC coordinating MDT Excessive Rainfall risk over the region for Saturday. A cold front will slowly cross PA through the day Saturday, bringing rounds of showers and storms across the entire area. The airmass in front of the cold front will be hot and juicy with PWs will approaching or slightly above 2". Current WPC ERO covers almost our entire CWA Saturday, so we will be monitoring this day closely for flooding concerns, especially with low FFG in NE PA. Best chance for flash flooding over the Middle to Lower Susq River Valley comes Friday afternoon and evening, and later shifts will be collaborating with our eastern neighbors on further FFA issuances. Models differ on the progression of the cold front, so the possibility of lingering showers Sunday remains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Persistent upper level troughing with a mean west-northwest flow aloft will bring a series of cold fronts through central PA next week. Timing of these fronts is uncertain with max POPs weighted toward the afternoon and evening hours. Each front will be accompanied by scattered showers and t-storms, but with much lower PWATs (available deep moisture) we expect the probability of heavy rainfall to remain low. CPC outlooks tilt the odds toward below average rainfall beyond midweek. SPC has noted that the overall speed of the flow aloft associated with the broad upper troughing is fcst to remain rather weak. The weak flow combined with lack of well-defined shortwave troughs and diffs with frontal timing favors a low predictability for severe weather. Lastly, we were keen to utilize a 50/50 weighting of NBM with the consensus multi-model blend which trends daytime temps closer to or just below seasonal averages through midweek. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Scattered SHRA and TSRA will develop across the northwest Fri late morning and afternoon, and spread east/southeast through the afternoon. Have added VCSH to everywhere except SE airfields, but most widespread activity is expected in the NW. Will wait to add VCTS or -TSRA when confidence in timing increases. VFR will prevail everywhere by Friday afternoon, with ceilings gradually lowering in the northern mountains overnight. Outlook... Sat...Restrictions possible in SHRA/TSRA Sun...Showers gradually sag southeast, reductions possible. Mon-Tue...Isolated to scattered P.M. showers/t-storms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Saturday evening for PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-045-046. && SYNOPSIS...Lambert/DeVoir NEAR TERM...Lambert/DeVoir SHORT TERM...Lambert/DeVoir LONG TERM...Steinbugl AVIATION...Gartner/Banghoff
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 149 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 PAZ019-024>028-033>036-049>053-056>059-063>066-171800- Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 149 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Locally very heavy rain of over 2 inches may in less than one hour where a few thunderstorms train over the same location. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ045-171800- Southern Clinton- 149 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Locally very heavy rain of over 2 inches may in less than one hour where a few thunderstorms train over the same location. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather. PAZ004>006-010>012-037-041-042-046-171800- Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Tioga- Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Lycoming- 149 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible Saturday afternoon and evening. Locally very heavy rain of over 2 inches may in less than one hour where a few thunderstorms train over the same location. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. PAZ017-018-171800- Clearfield-Northern Centre- 149 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are possible once again Saturday afternoon and evening. Locally very heavy rain of over 2 inches may in less than one hour where a few thunderstorms train over the same location. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
159 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021
PAZ046-051>053-161830-
Columbia PA-Southern Lycoming PA-Northumberland PA-Montour PA-
159 PM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN
LYCOMING...NORTHUMBERLAND...AND MONTOUR COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...
At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Delaware Run, moving east at 20 mph.
Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.
Locations impacted include...
Muncy, Watsontown, Montgomery, Jerseytown, Exchange, Delaware Run,
Turbotville, McEwensville and Washingtonville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 4106 7686 4107 7686 4110 7689 4111 7689
4120 7688 4121 7658 4099 7658
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 279DEG 19KT 4110 7681
EvanegoThe State College radar (KCCX), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:28 UTC.
5 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a utility pole near the intersection of Route 6 and Seneca Drive east of Port Allegheny.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree, blocking the intersection of Main Street and School Street in Roulette.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down a tree onto wires in Brady Township.
A severe thunderstorm producing winds estimated near 60 mph knocked down several large limbs near the intersection of Nichols Street and Williams Street in Clearfield.
A severe thunderstorm produced a microburst just north of Haneyville with winds estimated to be 85 to 95 mph. That path length as approximately one mile, running from Coyote Ridge Road across Chickadee Lane and Coudersport Pike (Route 44) before ending near the intersection of Zinck Fork Road and Brown Run Road. The path width was approximately 75 yards. Multiple large trees were knocked down along the path, and one fell onto an unoccupied cabin on Chickadee Lane.
Flash flooding on a small creek brought water across the road at Limestoneville Road and Church Road.
Flash flooding with water covering roads in Forks and Elkland Townships.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Pennsylvania in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Pennsylvania, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960709, 960710, 960713, 960715, 960499, 971589, 971592.