NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 27, 8:32 AM EST, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 27, 8:32 AM EST, 3 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
932 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A cold front
approaches from the north and west later today. It passes south
through the region tonight through Saturday, then becomes
stationary over the Mid-Atlantic. Another area of high pressure
builds in from the north and parks over the Canadian Maritimes.
That front lifts north as a warm front Sunday night, and then
another cold front passes through the region Monday night. The
remnant low of what is currently Tropical Storm Ida may affect
the region by the middle of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9:30 AM Update...
Little change to the forecast this morning and will reevaluate PoPs
for the midday update once morning satellite trends become a little
more established and 12z hi res guidance arrives. Some truly
impressive dew point/RH values so far this morning, with more in the
way of mid to upper 70s (locally 80) dew points than we just about
ever see in this area. Hard to imagine we will not see at least
locally significant hydro impacts by late afternoon/evening as
convection blossoms. Previous discussion follows...
A rather interesting meteorological setup exists today for the
Mid-Atlantic region. A large-scale midlevel ridge initially
centered in the western Atlantic will retrogress slowly to the
Carolina coast by 12z Saturday as it aligns with transient
ridging in southeast Canada, which will promote a southward push
of a cold front in place across the Northeast. Meanwhile, a
convectively-augmented vort max will migrate slowly clockwise
on the northern periphery of the ridge, generally from the
eastern Ohio Valley and central Appalachians this morning to the
northern Mid-Atlantic coast by Saturday morning. Large-scale
lift in advance of the meandering vort max will likely prove
sufficient to generate scattered to numerous storms during the
afternoon in our CWA via diurnal destabilization.
Although there is subtle synoptic forcing as addressed above, as
well as a slowly sagging frontal boundary from the Northeast,
subsynoptic lifting mechanisms will be rather weak and/or chaotic
today. These include orographic lift, sea/bay breezes, differential
heating, etc. As a result, convection-allowing models are
unsurprisingly variable in today's convective evolution. There
are, however, some similar characteristics among the guidance:
(1) greater coverage versus previous days, (2) some semblance of
convective propagation southward and westward, in association
with ambient instability and (weak) low-level trajectories, (3)
slow storm motions via weak tropospheric winds, and (4) multiple
rounds of convection, with the evening/overnight rounds tied
more closely to the larger-scale vort max. The greatest
variability with the convective simulations is with the
coverage/location of the overnight storms, with some models
effectively stabilizing a large portion of the northern Mid-
Atlantic from the daytime storms (becoming the effective front
alluded to earlier). Others are more aggressive in maintaining
convection or developing new storms in close proximity to the
vort max. Current thinking is that both scenarios will likely
play out to some degree. Given the convectively-enhanced nature
of the vort max (potentially exhibiting some warm-core
characteristics via MCV-related processes and attendant
thermodynamic profiles), it would not be surprising to see more
widespread convection during the afternoon/evening become more
closely aligned with the track of the mid-/low-level circulation
during the overnight hours, with potential enhancement via the
southward-shifting frontal boundary. The result is that storm
chances will likely persist well into the overnight hours, but
confidence is not particularly high on where these storms will
be/track. Think this will be determined to some degree by the
evolution of the daytime convection. The bottom line here is
that the forecast through tonight becomes more uncertain with
time, with chances for storms apparent but occurrence, locations,
and coverage not obvious at this time.
There is higher confidence in the potential impacts of any
storms, however. With weak tropospheric flow, high (2+ inch)
PWs, and peak preconvective CAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, slow-
moving pulse-like storms producing torrential downpours and
isolated microbursts are expected. Convection will likely be
disorganized, with individual cells lasting around an hour or
less and regeneration tied to the production and propagation of
outflow boundaries. Training storms are likely in this regime,
so localized flash flooding is certainly a possibility. No
changes to the flash flood watch were made this morning.
Before convection occurs, it will become quite hot and humid
once again, with temperatures and dew points likely quite
similar to those seen yesterday. Made no changes to the heat
advisory.
Finally, temperatures tonight will likely remain warm, with
muggy conditions continuing. Patchy fog is probable once again,
though this will be modulated by coverage and movement of
convection. There will likely be infiltration of lower stratus
as onshore flow develops poleward of the effective front,
augmented by any predecessor convection. This will also tend to
promote subtly increased cooling in northern portions of the
CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front continues to work its way south through the region
during the day Saturday. Weak low pressure will hover over
Delmarva, and showers and thunderstorms will likely continue
throughout the day. There will be abundant low level moisture
with dew points in the 70s and resulting PWATs will be over 2
inches. Instability shifts south, and SB CAPE values will be
1500-2000 J/kg, mainly over southern New Jersey, the Delaware
Valley, and Delmarva. 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will be less than
20 kt, so although some damaging winds are possible, the main
threat continues to be for flooding. Storm motion of storms that
develop will be slow. FFG remains low, especially given how
much rain has fallen over the last week or so. Flood Watch
remains in effect through Saturday.
Although dew points remain high, the cold front will continue
to pass south through the region, and showers and thunderstorms
will result in cooler temperatures on Saturday. Highs will be in
the 70s and 80s, with temperatures possibly approaching 90 in
southern Delmarva.
Convection tapers off Saturday night as the cold front sags
south of the region. Patchy fog possible given the abundant low
level moisture over the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled conditions on tap for most of the week. Stationary front
remains south of the region on Sunday, but it begins to lift back
north as a warm front late Sunday and Sunday night. A mid-level
ridge will be near the area, but some weak shortwave energy will
pass through the region. Not expecting widespread convection Sunday,
but cannot rule out scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
The warm front lifts north through the region Monday morning, and
highs warm backup to the upper 80s to around 90 along with surface
dew points in the mid 70s.
A cold front approaches and passes through the region late Monday
and Monday night. More widespread showers and thunderstorms develop
with its passage, and given the abundant low level moisture over
the area, another round of heavy rain and flooding is possible.
By the middle of next week, what is currently Tropical Storm Ida
should be a Tropical Depression somewhere over the Gulf Coast or
Tennessee Valley, and will make a run at the Mid-Atlantic.
Tropical moisture associated with it lifts towards the area and
may bring another round of showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain to the region sometime late Tuesday through Wednesday. It
depends on its track, and it is quite uncertain right now, as it
could pass well south of the region.
Another cold front may pass through the region towards the end
of next week with a cooler and dryer airmass.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through this morning...Morning fog has mostly lifted but reduced
CIGs and VSBYs may continue to affect MIV and ACY through near 15z.
VFR thereafter. Light and variable winds. Moderate confidence.
This afternoon...Greater coverage of convection is expected
this afternoon, with impacts probable at most of the terminals
during the 18z to 00z time window. Storms will be capable of
frequent lightning, torrential downpours, and strong/erratic
wind gusts. Pinpointing exact timing terminal to terminal is
impossible at this point, but given the expected coverage, a
rather broad window of TS mention in the TAFs seems appropriate
currently. Will hopefully be able to narrow down the timing in
subsequent TAF updates. Winds generally light and variable
outside of storms, with local sea/bay breeze effects likely at
ILG/ACY. Low confidence on timing the impacts to the terminals.
Tonight...Chances for showers/storms continue through the
overnight, though precise timing/location are unknown at this
stage. CIGs will likely worsen gradually overnight, with sub-VFR
conditions becoming more likely at most sites after 06z. Light
and variable winds, though there may be a tendency for winds to
become primarily northeasterly late. Low confidence.
Outlook...
Saturday through Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions in
SHRA/TSRA. Rain may be heavy at times. Fog likely to develop at
night. E-NE winds less than 10 kt. Moderate confidence.
Sunday through Sunday night...Mostly VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA
will result in localized sub-VFR conditions. Fog possible
Sunday night. E winds less than 10 kt, becoming SE, then S
Sunday night. Moderate confidence.
Monday through Monday night...Generally VFR. Afternoon and
evening SHRA/TSRA will result in localized restrictions. SW
winds less than 10 kt, becoming NW Monday night. Moderate
confidence.
Tuesday...Generally VFR. Scattered afternoon and evening
SHRA/TSRA possible. NW winds less than 10 kt, then LGT/VRB
Monday night. Moderate confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions are expected through tonight. Winds
will generally be south or southwest from 5 to 15 kt through
this evening, becoming more easterly tonight. Seas primarily
below 3 feet.
There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon through
tonight, with erratic winds and locally higher waves possible.
Outlook...
Saturday through Saturday night...SCA conditions possible,
mainly along the NJ ocean waters, with E winds gusting to 25 kt
and seas building to 5 ft. Generally sub-SCA over DE ocean
waters and DE Bay. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Sunday through Tuesday...Generally sub-SCA conditions. Several
wind shifts likely. Showers and thunderstorms likely through the
period.
Rip Currents...
There is a LOW risk of rip currents today. Onshore flow is
expected to occur on Saturday, which may increase the risk of
dangerous rip currents somewhat. For now, have maintained a low
risk for Saturday, but subsequent forecasts may require raising
the threat level, especially if onshore flow is stronger than
currently forecast.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ070-071-
102>106.
Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late
Saturday night for PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NJZ008>010-
012>015-017>020-026-027.
Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late
Saturday night for NJZ007>010-012>022-026-027.
DE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for DEZ001.
Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through late
Saturday night for DEZ001.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...CMS/O'Brien
Short Term...MPS
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...CMS/MPS/O'Brien
Marine...CMS/MPS