The Bull Complex wildfire continued through September. Warm and dry conditions gradually gave way to cooler and wetter weather in the second half of the month.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
The Bull Complex wildfire continued through September. Warm and dry conditions gradually gave way to cooler and wetter weather in the second half of the month.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 8:48 PM PST, 3 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Portland OR
948 PM PDT Tue Aug 31 2021
.SYNOPSIS...A broad upper level trough will be the main weather
feature through Wednesday, which will result in below-normal
daytime temperatures. High pressure returns Thursday and moves
over the forecast area Friday, which will cause a brief warming
trend for the region. A weak frontal system brushes the area
Saturday night and Sunday and could result in some precipitation
for some areas. The start of next week has high pressure
returning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...Just a short update this
evening: The mention of haze was expanded west into the Willamette
Valley and Coast Range in agreement with the HRRR's
vertically-integrated smoke forecast, which may be overdone. It will
depend on whether elevated smoke from the fires to our north migrates
far enough south to get pulled westward into the area by easterly low
to mid-level flow Wednesday night into Thursday.
The upper level trough, which has been the dominant synoptic feature
over the past 24 hours, will continue to slowly meander eastward
tonight. Wednesday, both global and high resolution models have a
ridge of high pressure starting to build across the Pacific NW. This
will be the start of a warming trend which will continue through
Friday. Temperatures will creep into the mid to upper 70s
inland and into the low to mid 60s along the Coast. Thursday and
Friday will see daytime highs into the low to mid 80s Thursday,
then continue into the mid to upper 80s on Friday. The coast
will see a similar trend with daytime highs in the mid to upper
60s on Thursday and Friday.
Also, on Wednesday, as the upper level trough moves eastward
the surface wind profile becomes more northerly and the pressure
gradient tightens up. This could result in some gusty winds
manifesting within the central and southern portions of the
Willamette Valley. This along with lower RH values could lead
into some fire weather concerns for southern locations within
our CWA. /42/Bumgardner
&&
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...The upper ridge
shifts into the northern Rockies Friday night and Saturday, as
another broad upper level trough in the northeast Pacific
approaches the region. The current operational runs of the GFS,
ECMWF and Canadian have a weak cold front which is associated
with a weak surface low, brushing southwest Washington and far
northwest Oregon Saturday night and Sunday. While all three
models have this surface feature, there is a noticeable
difference in the overall upper atmospheric pattern. The GFS and
ECWMF have a more zonal upper level pattern for the region,
while the Canadian has a more well defined upper level trough.
Although, the models are showing differences, the models as well
as the NBM guidance are showing a 20%-30% chance for
precipitation, for areas along the coast and the majority of
the northern portions of the CWA. While PoPs have remained
steady through the past few model runs, QPF has also remained
very low, with most areas seeing around 0.01 to 0.05" total
accumulation through the weekend. Labor Day, the forecast
becomes extremely muddled. Models are showing similar patterns,
as they have an upper level high developing across the Great
Basin, while an upper level low travel northward along the
California Coast. This pattern will likely result in warm
temperatures returning, but there remains a lot of uncertainty
as to how exactly these two systems will orient themselves
across the CWA through the start of next week. Given that
uncertainty have chosen to deviate very little from the NBM. /42
&&
.AVIATION...Skies finally cleared over much of the Willamette
Valley late this afternoon and evening, though some cloudiness
lingers over portions of the Cascades. Low-level northerly flow
should keep skies mostly clear, with VFR expected for much of the
forecast area through Wednesday. The 00z HREF continues to
suggest some stratus will develop around KAST overnight, but this
may be a tall order as winds turn more northeasterly in the
boundary layer. Will keep marine stratus out of KAST in the 06z
TAFs, but will hint at some shallow radiation fog around
sunrise. Areas of fog will be possible in wind-sheltered valleys
later tonight into early Wed, but the air mass (and ground)
appear to be too dry for fog in most areas east of the Coast
Range. Aside from any early morning fog, skies should be mostly
clear Wednesday. North winds will become a bit gusty in the
afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kt possible along the coast and
Willamette Valley.
For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather
information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR should prevail through Wednesday, with
mainly clear skies. Patchy fog is possible near the Cascade
foothills, but should remain too far away to impact KPDX
operations. North winds increase to 10-15 kt Wed afternoon, with
gusts as high as 25 kt possible. Weagle
&&
.MARINE...High pressure remains well offshore, with lower
pressure well inland and long the north California coast. This
will maintain somewhat weaker northwesterly winds for the coastal
waters, with 10 to 15 kt. Seas still holding 4 to 6 ft.
High pressure offshore will build on Thu, and hold into Sat. At
same time, will see thermal trough along far south Oregon coast
strengthen, bringing bit stronger north to south pressure
gradients. As result, will see northerly winds pick up again,
with 20 to 25 kt winds on the waters south of Cascade Head in
the afternoons/evenings. So have issued a Small Craft Advisory
for the coastal waters south of Cascade Head starting Wed
afternoon through Thu evening. These winds may also reach into
the zones to the north but confidence is low at this time. Seas
remain 3 to 6 ft. Higher seas could be locally steep and choppy,
thanks to the seas being more dominated by wind-driven waves.
/mh /Rockey
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Thursday
for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out
60 NM.
&&1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Bull Complex wildfire continued into September with around 25 thousand acres burned at the end of the month. Fire suppression efforts were turned over to a local team at the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 978496.