What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 1:28 PM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 1:28 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
228 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
As an upper level disturbance moves off the East Coast tonight,
drier high pressure builds into the area Sunday. This will bring
the return of typical summertime weather across the region through
the start of the week. Moisture and the chances for showers and
thunderstorms return for the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 228 PM: Scattered/numerous showers and storms have
developed over the mtns/foothills this afternoon, as predicted,
as a mid/upper trof axis moves overhead. The environment has
sfc-based CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg, which will be
sufficient to fuel additional storms. Shear is modest at best,
but probably enough to afford some weak organization into the
late afternoon, especially if some outflows can consolidate off
the higher terrain. The mesoanalysis shows just enough dCAPE
above 800 J/kg to make the storms interesting, so a few
strong/severe outflow winds will not be ruled out. Chances will
diminish this evening diurnally and as a shortwave axis passes
east. Precipitable water has not tailed off as quick as
expected, and storm motion vectors are fairly short, so we can't
rule out additional excessive rainfall.
After the upper trof passes later this evening, sky should clear
and wind should go light/variable as high pressure settles over
the mtns, setting up a good potential for fog development in the
pre-dawn hours, particularly where rain falls this afternoon. Low
temps will be about a category below normal. Sunday should be a
fairly quiet day with weak high pressure hanging around. High temps
will be right around normal for early August. In the absence of
anything to actively discourage convection, we should see widely
scattered showers over the mtns and foothills in the afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Saturday...Upper ridging dominates across the FA
thru the short term as an h5 trof approaches yet attenuates across
ern TN by Tue. With a classic Atl sfc ridge config, winds will align
generally sw/ly thru the period and maintain high td/s and allow
for weak temp adv within the BL. This will generate low-end sbCAPE
values arnd 1000 J/kg breaking a mlvl cap each afternoon wihin very
weak column flow. Thus, expect diurnally driven pulse and outflow
driven storms each afternoon, a few a which may briefly become quite
strong. Max and min temps will remain arnd normal each day.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...The ext range continues to show good
confidence in the overall pattern. Expect subTrop ridging to
dominate with any sigfnt upper waves remaining well north of the FA.
This will continue normal summertime wx over the region with similar
fcsts for each day. Little column flow along with skinny sbCAPE
depicted by the models, will lead to non/organized thunderstorms
each afternoon with increasing PWATS as a weak sfc front settles in
from the NW. With slow moving or perhaps anchored storms, there may
be some localized hydro issues, mainly confined to the mtns where
the better chance of deep convec is likely. Surface td/s will remain
high and along with temps at or a little abv normal, expect muggy
conds each day.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere...Prevailing VFR outside of thunderstorms
through the evening hours. First concern is thunderstorm activity
associated with an upper trof. Storms already developed over the
mtns will affect KAVL first, then will move east of the Blue Ridge
during the late afternoon/early evening. Will employ a TEMPO to
handle the associated restrictions. The storms should end by 01Z at
the latest. Clearing sky this evening, combined with light winds,
will set up a fog scenario in the pre-dawn hours tonight. Visibility
will probably drop lowest in places that experience rainfall late
today. For the time being, prevailing MVFR visibility will be used
as a placeholder starting from 06Z to 08Z. We will eventually add
a TEMPO group at some locations for possible IFR/LIFR conditions
as confidence increases. The fog should burn off quickly Sunday
morning, after which only scattered low clouds are expected with
a light wind. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon, but
the chances are too low to mention at this time.
Outlook: Diurnal shower/thunderstorm activity will return for
the first part of next week. Fog and low stratus will be possible
each morning, particularly over the mtn valleys and areas primed
by rainfall from the previous evening.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 99% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 94% High 100%
KAVL High 100% High 100% Med 71% High 88%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 95% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PMHazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 4:14 AM EST, 9 hours 41 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
514 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
080915-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
514 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Piedmont of North and South
Carolina, plus a portion of northeast Georgia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Isolated to scattered showers will occur this morning near a weak
area of low pressure over the region. Ample moisture will allow
these showers to produce locally heavy rainfall. The low will move
out of the area later today. Scattered thunderstorms also will
develop, mainly in the afternoon. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
possible with any of these storms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-080915-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
514 AM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop today, with the greatest
coverage being in the afternoon. Any of these storms will be capable
of cloud-to-ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
Wimberley
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 7, 1:03 PM EST, 52 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
203 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
NCZ052-064-065-SCZ002-003-071845-
Transylvania NC-Haywood NC-Henderson NC-Pickens Mountains SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-
203 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Transylvania,
central Henderson, southeastern Haywood, northwestern Greenville and
northeastern Pickens Counties through 245 PM EDT...
At 203 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brevard, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Hendersonville, Brevard, Flat Rock, Etowah, Slater-Marietta, Mountain
Home, Laurel Park, Rosman, Graveyard Fields and Looking Glass.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3522 8296 3522 8294 3526 8292 3530 8293
3536 8290 3538 8235 3499 8247 3498 8252
3497 8255 3517 8298
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 281DEG 18KT 3522 8278
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 1:06 PM EST, 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
206 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
NCZ503>506-071845-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
206 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern McDowell and
southwestern Burke Counties through 245 PM EDT...
At 205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Marion, or 6 miles northwest of Lake James, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Marion, Glen Alpine, Lake James State Park, Table Rock,
Lake James, B.R. Parkway-Little Switzerland To Linville, Nebo,
Ashford and Woodlawn.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3579 8161 3558 8181 3557 8183 3554 8185
3554 8187 3578 8214 3585 8208 3586 8204
3588 8202 3588 8201 3587 8200 3589 8198
3591 8198
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 300DEG 16KT 3580 8198
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 1:14 PM EST, 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
214 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
NCZ053-065-505>510-071900-
Buncombe NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-
Polk Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Eastern Polk NC-
214 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
McDowell, northwestern Rutherford, northeastern Henderson, north
central Polk and southeastern Buncombe Counties through 300 PM EDT...
At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles northeast of Hendersonville, or near Chimney Rock State Park,
moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave,
Shingle Hollow, Green Hill, Mill Spring, Gerton, Thermal City and
Lake Adger.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3547 8239 3563 8227 3554 8191 3526 8214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 300DEG 16KT 3550 8224
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 1:20 PM EST, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
220 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
GAZ018-026-028-SCZ001-004-010-071900-
Hart GA-Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Greater Oconee SC-Anderson SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
220 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Franklin, eastern Stephens, northwestern Hart, west central Anderson
and southern Oconee Counties through 300 PM EDT...
At 219 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Toccoa, or 5 miles west of Westminster, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Seneca, Walhalla, Westminster, Lavonia, Gumlog, Avalon, Tugaloo State
Park, Martin, Bowersville and Pendleton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3437 8307 3467 8336 3480 8317 3467 8285
3465 8284 3465 8283 3464 8283 3463 8285
3462 8285 3465 8281 3464 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 309DEG 16KT 3466 8319
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 1:47 PM EST, 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
247 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
NCZ068-501>506-508-071930-
McDowell Mountains NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
247 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of McDowell,
northeastern Rutherford, southern Caldwell, northwestern Cleveland
and Burke Counties through 330 PM EDT...
At 246 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Marion, or over Lake James State Park, moving
southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and up to penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese,
Gamewell, Hudson, Icard and Cajah's Mountain.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3586 8134 3582 8134 3533 8176 3562 8221
3597 8184 3596 8181 3598 8179
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 307DEG 16KT 3573 8190
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPTSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 1:55 PM EST, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
NCZ065-509-510-SCZ003-006-007-071945-
Henderson NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
255 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Henderson, southern Polk, northeastern Greenville and northwestern
Spartanburg Counties through 345 PM EDT...
At 255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles west of Columbus, or near Saluda, moving southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Flat Rock, Landrum, Inman, Tryon, Campobello, Saluda, Lake
Bowen, Tigerville and Lyman.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3521 8197 3519 8197 3518 8194 3492 8217
3520 8251 3538 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 307DEG 15KT 3523 8230
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
JPT