Training showers and storms developed along a stalled surface boundary, that was diabatically reinforced by widespread early day convection and resultant overcast skies. This coupled with a passing mid level disturbances allowed for multiple hours of heavy rain over Wayne County in central North Carolina, which resulted in several reports of flash flooding.
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The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
Training showers and storms developed along a stalled surface boundary, that was diabatically reinforced by widespread early day convection and resultant overcast skies. This coupled with a passing mid level disturbances allowed for multiple hours of heavy rain over Wayne County in central North Carolina, which resulted in several reports of flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 3:17 PM EST, 2 hours 3 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 417 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal wave will track northeastward along a quasi-stationary front over sern VA and the Chesapeake Bay through early tonight, while a trailing cold front will settle southeastward through eastern NC. A weak meso-high will follow and settle across NC and VA tonight and early Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 410 PM Saturday... A shortwave trough centered over ern KY/TN will pivot ewd across the wrn and cntl Carolinas tonight, with associated renewed forcing for ascent over cntl NC between 00-06Z Sunday. That forcing will arrive in the wake of the MCVs now lifting across ern VA and the DelMarVA vicinity and following mesoscale subsidence situated over cntl NC. A 1015 mb frontal wave centered near KAKQ at 20Z will track slowly newd sern VA, the Chesapeake Bay, and the DelMarva, then offshore tonight. A trailing cold front --diabatically-reinforced by widespread early day convection/overcast-- was analyzed from that low swd to near KECG, swwd to KDPL, then wwd across the srn Coastal Plain, Sandhills, and srn Piedmont. While the front is generally expected to move to near the NC coast tonight, the trailing portion across srn NC may become quasi-stationary across srn NC/nrn SC. Widely scattered deep convective development may yet occur along the front over srn NC front during the next several hours, as late day diurnal heating occurs in the generally west to east clearing regime spreading across the state, and also as the aforementioned larger scale forcing for ascent edges ewd and closer. Similarly-forced Appalachian-lee trough and terrain-induced convection now over wrn NC may drift into the far wrn and srn NC Piedmont while weakening through ~02Z. The main story will otherwise be the development of widespread fog and low overcast in the residually-stable airmass, in a meso-high to the north of the aforementioned front, overnight. Areas of dense fog are likely; and a Dense Fog Advisory may ultimately be needed. This threat will be messaged in the HWO for now. Radiationally-cooled lows are expected to be in the mid-upr 60s, to around 70 across the srn Coastal Plain and Sandhills. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM Sunday... A shortwave trough centered over the Carolinas Sunday morning will lift newd to the middle Atlantic coast through the evening, with following shortwave ridging and height rises that will overspread cntl NC through Mon. A mid level cold pool accompanying that trough, around -10 to 11C at 500 mb according to both 12Z RAOB data over the OH Valley and model forecasts over cntl/nern NC at 12Z Sunday, will likewise lift newd and away from cntl NC through 00Z Mon. At the surface, a meso-high will be in place across much of VA and NC in the morning, to the northwest of a front that will have stalled near the NC coast. That front will arc nwwd into an Appalachian-lee trough that will strengthen with diurnal heating-- heating which will be initially slowed by widespread low overcast and fog-- over the Piedmont. Although surface winds will remain light throughout the region, weak convergence will occur along both the frontal segment and the lee trough, along with differential heating along the former. That convergence, in addition to the lingering/waning presence of the aforementioned cold pool aloft, may prove sufficient for the development of a few isolated cells from the srn NC Coastal Plain nwwd across the srn middle Atlantic Piedmont, the latter of which may drift ewd across cntl VA, but probably north of cntl NC according to most model guidance, overnight. It will otherwise be a partly sunny, seasonably hot day, with high temperatures generally 86-91, then mostly clear with lows 66 to 71 overnight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 330 PM Saturday... Mon and Tue: Weak ridging with height rises and corresponding subsidence in the mid-levels will be in place Mon afternoon and evening. Overall dry conditions are forecast but can't rule out a few isolated storms over portions of central NC. On Tue, a mid-level shortwave centered over the Great Lakes will send a weak trough axis across the Appalachians. This, along with any potential sea-breeze, would be the primary focus for any aftn/eve storms. Temperatures both days will top out near the low 90s. By Wed and Thu, surface high pressure over the western Atlantic will remain in place, with southerly flow continuing to bring in dewpoints in the low to middle 70s. The mid-level flow during this time frame will become more westerly. A few shortwaves embedded in the flow, as evident in the GFS/ECMWF, will track across the Ohio Valley. At the surface, the Piedmont trough will strengthen. This will continue to favor increasing chances of aftn/eve storms. Temperatures will hover once again in the lower 90s, with some heat indices near 100, especially across the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. By Fri and Sat, the 12Z GFS/ECMWF, as well as the GEFS/NAEFS ensembles, are showing a deep trough moving southeast out of Canada and into the northeast US. Low-level southwest flow will pump in continued warmth at 850 mb, and precipitable water values are forecast to be at or above 2 inches. At the surface, a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley, leading to our highest chances for shower/storms. The front currently is forecast to linger over the area Sun, which could lead to a potential heavy rainfall threat if this were to materialize. Temperatures should favor a slight cooling trend with increasing clouds, but remain warm and muggy through the remainder of the period. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Saturday... Areas of mostly MVFR ceilings, in the wake of earlier widespread convection, overcast, and stability, will gradually lift and scatter from west to east across cntl NC this afternoon. While showers and storms in the vicinity of RWI and FAY will linger for another hour or two, as a cold front moves sewd into ern and sern NC, dry weather is otherwise expected through the TAF period. The aforementioned lifting and scattering of earlier low clouds, and general clearing through early tonight, will favor the redevelopment of widespread low overcast and fog overnight into Sunday morning across e-cntl NC and VA, with the associated lowest ceilings and visibility restrictions likely to result at RDU and RWI. Associated low level moisture will disperse between 13-15Z Sunday, with following VFR conditions on Sunday. Outlook: Patchy fog and low stratus will be possible each morning next week, especially at FAY, as will isolated to widely scattered afternoon-evening showers/storms. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...MWS LONG TERM...Kren AVIATION...MWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 428 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-075>078-086-088-089-082030- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee- Harnett-Wayne-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 428 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Areas of dense fog are expected to develop tonight and continue into Saturday morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083>085-082030- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-Richmond- Scotland- 428 PM EDT Sat Aug 7 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:17 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding was reported along Highway 111 near Van Smith Road.
Several streets were reported flooded near Dudley.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 983718, 983719.