Scattered thunderstorms developed over western North Carolina throughout the afternoon into the evening. Some of the storms produced brief strong to severe wind gusts.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed over western North Carolina throughout the afternoon into the evening. Some of the storms produced brief strong to severe wind gusts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 15, 1:17 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
217 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface front will remain nearly stationary across the area
for the next few days. The remnants of Fred is expected to move
north from the Gulf coast to the Tennessee River Valley Monday night
into mid week. Expect cooler than normal temperatures into mid week.
Abundant tropical moisture will continue across the region through
much of the week leading to areas of heavy rainfall and isolated
strong thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 pm: Deep convection, almost exclusively in the form of
showers, has finally bubbled up over the past hour or so, especially
across western NC. Coverage remains mostly isolated, but with slow
destabilization expected to continue, coverage and intensity of the
activity should continue to gradually increase through the afternoon
into the evening. Instability will remain somewhat muted (sbCAPE
generally around 2000 J/kg or less) due to the limited insolation
and warm/moist profiles. Therefore, the severe storm threat
continues to appear limited, but probably non-zero. The larger
concern will remain localized excessive rainfall/possible flash
flooding, primarily this evening, when storm coverage and intensity
is expected to be at its peak.
The moist conditions along with development of a 15-20 kt southerly
flow just above the surface should allow convection to persist
through much of the overnight, although coverage and intensity of
activity and the excessive rainfall potential should steadily
diminish with time. Chances will be highest near the southern
escarpment of the Blue Ridge where upslope lift should be maximized.
Much of Monday should be quite similar to today, with abundant/thick
morning cloud cover slowing insolation and diurnal destabilization.
As such, convection (again, mostly showers), should remain isolated
to widely scattered through mid-afternoon-ish. After that, guidance
generally agrees in lifting a weak mid-level vort max toward the
area within the southerly flow aloft. Additionally, there will be a
bit of an increase in upper divergence late in the day, as an upper
jet max gets its act together a bit more from the TN Valley into the
Great Lakes. Low level flow will also begin to back during this
time, establishing more of a pure upslope regime. While all these
sources of lift will be quite weak, continued high PWATs (around 2")
and moderate instability should allow for development of numerous
showers and storms by early Monday evening. The severe storm threat
will remain limited, but the potential for locally excessive
rainfall and flash flooding will again increase toward the end of
the forecast period. Tonight's min temps will be right around climo,
while Monday's maxes will again be cooler-than-normal...possibly
even a degree or so cooler than today.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: Tropical Storm Fred will be in the
process of making landfall at the start of the short term period
over the FL Panhandle. Model guidance continues to wash away the
low-level center of circulation once Fred surges into the Deep
South during the day Tuesday. With the tropical airmass already
in place, the remnants of Fred will only add to the environment
and PWAT values will surge to near-record values for this time
of year. With a southerly component persistently pumping into the
region, strong WAA will follow and recent trends actually keep the
frontal boundary from dipping fully into the CFWA as previously
thought. Profiles continue to support the idea of hydro issues,
especially when considering all of the rain that as fell or will
fall prior to Tuesday. This includes: a very deep cloud layer,
skinny CAPE, and deep layer saturation through the atmospheric
column. whatever mid-level circulation that is still left from Fred
will likely push into the mountains Tuesday afternoon/evening and
provide a focus of heavy rain across the CFWA, but highlighting
the Blue ridge Escarpment in its path for the heaviest rainfall
amounts, which will increase the landslide threat over the high
country. Model guidance show a wedge-like pattern over the area,
which could enhance the overall rain threat, but the main driver
in terms of a lifting mechanism will be from the frontal boundary
and orographic lift. Hence why the Escarpment will be the area of
concern Tuesday since the highest PWAT values will occur then and
the aforementioned lifting mechanisms will be maximized. Expect
more widespread coverage for flash flooding along the Escarpment
and in locations that receive multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. PoPs will be in the likely/categorical range for
much of the CFWA Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Most of what is left of Fred will push out of the region by
Wednesday as the pattern slowly begins to evolve back into a
typical summertime regime. The airmass will not change much as deep
tropical moisture lingers over the CFWA during the middle part of
the week and still produces the threat for hydro issues. The one
good thing about Wednesday is that the activity will become more
diurnally driven rather than steady precip throughout the daytime
and nighttime periods as we will witness on Tuesday, especially
outside of the mountains. Either way, a very wet pattern will be
in store for the short-term period and will likely cause flash
flooding in portions of the CFWA, especially in poorly drained and
urban areas. High temperatures will run below normal during the
short-term with lots of precip expected and enhanced cloud cover,
but lows will be at or slightly above normal due to extensive
cloud cover.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday: The sub-tropical ridge that has been
hanging out over the western Atlantic for a while now will gradually
flatten out and allow the flow aloft to become more zonal by the end
of the week. Model guidance are in better consensus today compared
to yesterday regarding the overall synoptic pattern. This would
suggest that the typical summertime regime will be back in full
force by the upcoming weekend with the usual diurnal convection
trends expected to enter back into the forecast. One difference
is that the models do spit out a few potent shortwaves that would
enhance PoPs to greater than climatology. With the tropical airmass
stubbornly in place through the end of the work week, hydro issues
will persist into at least the first half of the medium range and
could stretch into the second half of the extended if this persists
throughout the week. Global models are showing an upper ridge
building over the southeastern CONUS by the end of the upcoming
weekend, but not fully confident in this change since it is 6+
days out. Temperatures will be below normal through the middle
part of the week, but returning to normal values by the end of
the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs linger this afternoon at KHKY and
the upstate SC terminals. These should lift to VFR by around 20Z.
Otherwise, deep convection is bubbling within a moderately unstable
air mass. Coverage remains isolated at this time, and the more
modest instability (compared with the past couple of days) should
result in just a gradual uptick in intensity and coverage through
the afternoon. As such, we feel comfortable with VCSH/VCTS at most
sites until 21 or 22Z, w/ 4-hour tempos for TSRA thereafter. (Based
on radar trends, tempos begin an hour or two earlier at KHKY and
KAVL). Convective chances will linger through the overnight, but
coverage is forecast to be such that no TAF mention appears
warranted after 06Z or so, at least for now. Cigs are again expected
to lower late tonight into early Monday, with IFR, perhaps LIFR
conditions likely at most sites by sunrise or so. Cigs should then
remain restricted until at least noon or so. Restricted visibility is
also expected, mainly in the mtn valleys, but periods of MVFR are
also possible in other areas.
Outlook: Coverage of mainly afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms is expected to remain rather high through mid-week,
with Tue looking like the most active day. A gradual downward trend
in diurnal convection is expected during the latter half of the
week. Widespread low stratus and areas of fog are expected each
morning through at least mid-week.
Confidence Table...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT High 100% High 92% High 81% Med 74%
KGSP High 90% High 85% Med 71% High 84%
KAVL High 94% Med 70% High 89% High 93%
KHKY High 94% High 85% Med 75% High 82%
KGMU High 90% High 80% Med 68% High 90%
KAND High 91% High 96% Med 70% Med 79%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables are available at
the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDLHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 520 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065- 068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-160930- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander- Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba- Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania- Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC- Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke- McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains- Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains- Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee- Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York- Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood- 520 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia this afternoon and linger into the evening. A few of these storms could become quite strong and produce large hail, heavy rainfall, and damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of tropical storm Fred will interact with an old front and the mountains to produce periodic heavy rainfall through the middle part of the week. The flood threat will steadily increase on Monday as showers and thunderstorms wet the soil. At this time, the greatest potential for excessive rain appears to be Tuesday and Tuesday night as a remnant circulation from Fred moves northward to the west of the region. This could result in a flash flooding threat, especially in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. SBK/PM
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0450 PM LIGHTNING 6 SSW SANDY SPRINGS 34.53N 82.80W
08/14/2021 ANDERSON SC BROADCAST MEDIA
BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED LIGHTNING STRIKE THAT CAUSED A
BOAT TO CATCH ON FIRE AT PORTMAN MARINA ON LAKE HARTWELL.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1044 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0345 PM TSTM WND DMG 5 W ABBEVILLE 34.19N 82.47W
08/14/2021 ABBEVILLE SC 911 CALL CENTER
A FEW TREES BLOWN DOWN IN THE COUNTY. NO AREA WITH A
CONCENTRATION OF TREES DOWN. THE POINT WAS UNDER WHERE
THE STRONGEST STORM CORE OCCURRED.
&&
OUTLAWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1129 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 SW HARMONY 35.94N 80.80W
08/14/2021 IREDELL NC FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN THE HARMONY AND TURNERSBURG AREA.
FIRE DEPARTMENT CREW SPENT HOURS CUTTING UP TREES TO GET
THEM OUT OF THE ROADWAY.
&&
OUTLAWPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM HAIL 5 SSW LENOIR 35.84N 81.57W
08/14/2021 E0.88 INCH CALDWELL NC PUBLIC
NICKEL SIZED HAIL NEAR GAMEWELL.
&&
OUTLAWSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
258 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
NCZ502-504-151930-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
258 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Caldwell
and southeastern Burke Counties through 330 PM EDT...
At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southeast of Morganton, or 4 miles south of Drexel, moving
north at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese, Gamewell,
Hudson, Icard, Cajah's Mountain and Drexel.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3587 8134 3561 8150 3560 8171 3589 8174
3590 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 175DEG 15KT 3569 8163
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HGSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
NCZ048-152000-
Madison NC-
329 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Madison
County through 400 PM EDT...
At 329 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marshall, moving northwest at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Marshall, Mars Hill, Hot Springs, Allenstand and Walnut.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3601 8261 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
3596 8259 3581 8252 3573 8272 3594 8290
3595 8287 3595 8285 3592 8282 3593 8281
3597 8278 3599 8279 3600 8277 3606 8263
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 153DEG 23KT 3584 8267
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
HGThe Knoxville radar (KMRX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:38 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
County comms reported at least a couple of trees blown down in the central part of the county.
Law enforcement reported multiple trees blown down across Kannapolis.
Public reported a tree blown down on a house on Harrington St.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 982256, 982257, 982258.