Southeasterly surface winds across the east resulted in low-level moisture advection which sharpened the dryline across the eastern plains of New Mexico on May 14, 2021. With increasing daytime temperatures, a sufficient amount of instability was in place for afternoon thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Southeasterly surface winds across the east resulted in low-level moisture advection which sharpened the dryline across the eastern plains of New Mexico on May 14, 2021. With increasing daytime temperatures, a sufficient amount of instability was in place for afternoon thunderstorms. However, while surface moisture was in place across the east, a lack of mid-level moisture resulted in an environment where strong to damaging winds were the primary threat. Thunderstorms first developed across the northern and southern high terrain of New Mexico before moving eastward onto lower elevations. Thunderstorms that moved onto the plains of eastern New Mexico moved into an environment with more instability and shear which allowed them to intensify. A few of these thunderstorms produced 60 to 70 mph winds, but the hail was sub-severe. Strong downbursts were more common west of the Rio Grande Valley where a couple strong thunderstorms produced downburst winds in excess of 50 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 2:15 PM MST, 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 315 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered this evening along and south of Interstate 40 and east of Interstate 25, where isolated storms could be strong to severe with hail and damaging wind gusts. Drier air moves into western and central New Mexico over the weekend, while moisture sloshes back and forth over the east, where showers and thunderstorms will develop each day. A few of these weekend storms could be strong to severe over northeast New Mexico. Monday and Tuesday a slow moving upper low will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially to the east. High temperatures will remain near seasonal averages during the weekend but cool down a few degrees early next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... Showers and thunderstorms that have developed over the Southwest and South Central Mountains will continue to pulse as they shift east and northeast. With high dewpoint depressions, any storm will have the potential for gusty and erratic winds. Brief small hail will also be possible with the strongest storms. Across the northeast, storms are quickly shifting eastward, but due to a punch of drier air at mid levels, continue to be weak. Nonetheless, these storms, too, will have the potential for gusty and erratic winds with any outflows that develop. These storms may get stronger as they near the OK/TX borders where better boundary layer moisture exists. Once the atmosphere decouples tonight, southerly flow should replenish low level moisture across the plains as well as the Rio Grande Valley. Then on Saturday, one or more weak perturbations in the flow aloft may help spark showers and thunderstorms once again. For areas west of the Central Mountain Chain, a mix of wet and dry storms are expected with gusty winds again being the main concern. Meanwhile, a boundary draped over far northeast NM will be a focus for stronger thunderstorm development. Storms are likely to initiate on the Sangre de Cristo Mountains or the boundary itself, then shift east/southeast along the boundary during the afternoon and evening. Steep mid level lapse rates, 1000-1500J/kg MLCAPE and weak shear could yield a few severe storms, particularly across Colfax and Union counties. The storms will likely help push the boundary southward through the afternoon and evening, with storms potentially moving into Quay County during the evening hours. Additional, mainly non-severe, storms will be possible during the afternoon and evening across east central and southeast areas. However, much like today, as these storms shift eastward toward the TX border and better moisture, severe potential will increase. Depending on the amount of storms and the cold pool that develops, the outflow boundary should push westward toward the east slopes of the Central Mountain Chain Saturday night. A weak gap wind is not out of the question at KSAF or KABQ very early Sunday morning. 34 LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... Drier air makes more progress over western and central NM Sunday while a surface boundary is draped over northeast NM near the NM/CO state line, which would be a focal point for showers and storms, some of which could become strong to severe. The boundary slides farther south and west Sunday night, and sets up another round of showers and storms for Monday, some of which could be strong to severe over the northeast quarter to third of the state. Isolated and probably dry convection could develop Monday afternoon/evening over western NM as an upper low moves into eastern AZ. Otherwise, Sunday afternoon south to southwest winds could be breezy to windy over portions of west central, southwest and south central NM but don't appear to be strong enough at this time to meet wind advisory criteria. Weekend temperatures will be near normal values for mid May. Chances for showers and storms increase Monday night through Tuesday night, again especially over the east, where low level moisture will be most plentiful, as the upper low moves slowly over the region. Wednesday should be drier overall, with a ridge overhead, although there are model differences how far west low level moisture will exist over eastern NM. Trimmed Wednesday's pops down somewhat below the NBM but not as dry as the ECMWF. Model differences inspire little confidence in the Thursday/Friday forecast. We could see drier and windier weather or isolated to scattered storms over the north and east. && .FIRE WEATHER... A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across many areas today and again on Saturday will increase the potential for wildfire ignitions. Wetter storms will be found across portions of eastern New Mexico on Saturday, but still may be spotty. On Sunday, a Pacific low will dive southward into SoCal, and ahead of it, a dry slot will punch into NM. Winds will increase, though at this time, look to remain largely below critical thresholds. However, several hours of single digit humidity values can be expected along and west of the Rio Grande Valley. The Pacific low will shift across NM on Monday and Tuesday. Though a few stray showers or thunderstorms are possible across central and western areas, it appears the focus for additional storms will be across northeast New Mexico each day. Drier southwesterly flow looks to return by mid to late week, which may yield breezy conditions across western areas, but a diurnally sloshing dryline will keep precipitation possible across the east. 34 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the Southwest and South Central Mountains, with isolated development to the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Storms will continue to shift to the east or northeast through the day. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly later this afternoon across eastern NM. These winds may result in areas of BLDU and a few storms may contain hail as well. KROW and KTCC may be impacted. Storms will decrease or move out of the area by 06Z, though another round of stronger convection is possible Saturday across eastern NM. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 46 84 47 82 / 0 5 5 0 Dulce........................... 39 80 40 78 / 0 5 10 10 Cuba............................ 47 78 46 76 / 0 10 10 5 Gallup.......................... 39 81 36 78 / 0 10 10 0 El Morro........................ 39 76 36 76 / 5 20 10 0 Grants.......................... 41 79 37 80 / 5 20 10 0 Quemado......................... 45 76 41 77 / 10 20 5 0 Magdalena....................... 52 75 50 80 / 20 30 10 0 Datil........................... 46 74 43 76 / 20 20 5 0 Reserve......................... 40 82 37 81 / 10 10 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 84 45 84 / 10 10 0 0 Chama........................... 37 74 38 72 / 0 10 10 20 Los Alamos...................... 52 76 51 76 / 0 10 10 10 Pecos........................... 48 76 47 76 / 5 20 10 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 42 73 43 71 / 0 20 10 30 Red River....................... 37 65 38 65 / 0 30 20 40 Angel Fire...................... 30 67 32 67 / 5 30 20 40 Taos............................ 41 77 42 76 / 0 20 10 20 Mora............................ 42 73 42 73 / 0 30 20 20 Espanola........................ 51 82 51 82 / 0 10 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 51 77 50 77 / 5 20 10 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 47 80 47 80 / 0 10 10 5 Albuquerque Foothills........... 58 80 55 81 / 5 10 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 57 82 54 83 / 5 10 10 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 54 84 52 85 / 5 10 10 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 57 83 55 84 / 5 10 10 0 Belen........................... 55 84 53 86 / 10 10 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 54 85 52 85 / 5 10 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 52 84 50 85 / 10 10 10 0 Corrales........................ 54 85 52 85 / 5 10 10 0 Los Lunas....................... 51 84 50 85 / 10 10 10 0 Placitas........................ 55 81 53 81 / 5 10 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 55 83 54 84 / 5 10 10 0 Socorro......................... 55 84 54 88 / 20 20 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 51 77 49 76 / 5 10 10 5 Tijeras......................... 52 80 49 79 / 5 20 10 5 Edgewood........................ 48 78 46 79 / 5 20 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 44 80 43 81 / 5 20 10 5 Clines Corners.................. 47 75 46 76 / 5 20 10 5 Mountainair..................... 50 77 47 78 / 10 20 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 49 76 47 78 / 10 20 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 55 80 55 82 / 30 20 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 49 74 49 75 / 30 30 5 0 Capulin......................... 43 74 43 70 / 10 40 30 60 Raton........................... 42 76 43 75 / 5 40 20 50 Springer........................ 43 78 44 77 / 5 40 20 40 Las Vegas....................... 43 74 44 75 / 5 30 20 20 Clayton......................... 49 76 50 76 / 10 30 30 40 Roy............................. 48 77 48 76 / 5 30 30 30 Conchas......................... 55 83 54 84 / 5 30 30 10 Santa Rosa...................... 53 81 51 84 / 10 20 20 10 Tucumcari....................... 58 84 54 85 / 20 30 30 10 Clovis.......................... 54 80 54 84 / 20 30 30 10 Portales........................ 56 82 56 86 / 20 30 30 10 Fort Sumner..................... 56 83 56 87 / 20 30 20 5 Roswell......................... 58 86 56 92 / 30 30 10 5 Picacho......................... 54 80 53 85 / 30 40 5 0 Elk............................. 52 78 52 81 / 40 30 5 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 755 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 NMZ201>241-151200- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 755 AM MDT Fri May 14 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few strong or severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of eastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts and small hail will be the main concerns with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A better chance of strong to severe thunderstorms will return on Saturday across northeast and far eastern New Mexico. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be likely, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. Severe weather chances persist across northeast New Mexico on Sunday and may return Monday and Tuesday as well. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 34
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
137 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
NMZ207-208-220-241-142000-
West Central Highlands-San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-Lower
Rio Grande Valley-Southwest Mountains-
137 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SOCORRO COUNTY UNTIL
200 PM MDT...
At 136 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles north of Magdalena, or 25 miles northwest of Socorro, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Magdalena.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 115 and 116.
&&
LAT...LON 3411 10734 3422 10759 3457 10725 3435 10689
3426 10694 3416 10698 3413 10718
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 233DEG 19KT 3429 10725
15Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 206 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021 NMZ233-237>239-142030- Eastern Lincoln County-Chaves County Plains-Guadalupe County-De Baca County- 206 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN... SOUTHWESTERN DE BACA...NORTHWESTERN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM MDT... At 206 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10 miles south of Ramon, or 38 miles southeast of Vaughn, moving northeast at 20 mph. Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Ramon. This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 155 and 184. && LAT...LON 3389 10480 3402 10504 3451 10495 3436 10437 TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 217DEG 19KT 3409 10492 15
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
NMZ230-142100-
Union County-
230 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM MDT...
At 230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clayton, moving southeast at 15 mph.
Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Clayton Lake State Park and Seneca.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 421 and 429.
&&
LAT...LON 3650 10304 3632 10304 3651 10338 3670 10322
3661 10300 3650 10300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 293DEG 12KT 3653 10321
15Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
258 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
NMZ237-142130-
De Baca County-
258 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN DE BACA COUNTY UNTIL 330
PM MDT...
At 258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles south of Yeso, or 24 miles southwest of Fort Sumner, moving
east at 25 mph.
Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern De Baca
County.
This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 163 and 171.
&&
LAT...LON 3400 10416 3408 10479 3409 10479 3409 10489
3427 10488 3438 10479 3441 10411
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 285DEG 22KT 3422 10453
15Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
301 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
NMZ227-228-142130-
Far Northeast Highlands-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton
Pass-
301 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...
At 301 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Raton Crews Airport, or 13 miles south of Raton, moving east at 20
mph.
Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Raton, Sugarite, Raton Crews Airport and Sugarite Canyon State Park.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 427 and 460.
Highway 64 between Mile Markers 323 and 375.
&&
LAT...LON 3643 10401 3650 10435 3659 10472 3683 10464
3699 10449 3699 10400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 291DEG 16KT 3669 10445
15Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
311 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
NMZ231-232-234-142145-
Eastern San Miguel County-Harding County-Quay County-
311 PM MDT Fri May 14 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL...
SOUTHEASTERN HARDING AND WEST CENTRAL QUAY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT...
At 311 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Conchas, or 21 miles northwest of Tucumcari, moving
east at 20 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Tucumcari, Conchas and Conchas Lake State Park.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 323 and 336.
State Road 104 between Mile Markers 75 and 105.
&&
LAT...LON 3537 10421 3556 10398 3550 10345 3527 10357
3503 10377
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 291DEG 16KT 3540 10397
15The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:32 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A public weather station south of Belen measured 59 mph wind gusts from a dry thunderstorm and an outflow boundary.
A trained spotter near Tolar estimated 60 mph wind gusts from a severe thunderstorm that tracked through the area. The severe winds broke approximately three inch diameter branches off of a tree. Damages are estimated for tree damage.
A mesonet station near Logan measured a 60 mph wind gust from a decaying thunderstorm producing a strong downburst.
A strong thunderstorm near Texico produced nickel size hail.
An ASOS station in Roswell measured a 69 mph thunderstorm wind gust from a severe thunderstorm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 949513, 949508, 949510, 949514, 949516.