Abundant moisture remained over New Mexico on July 17, 2021, as evident by precipitable water values in the 90th percentile. Despite an area of high pressure over the state, it was a very active day for northern and central New Mexico with widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Abundant moisture remained over New Mexico on July 17, 2021, as evident by precipitable water values in the 90th percentile. Despite an area of high pressure over the state, it was a very active day for northern and central New Mexico with widespread showers and thunderstorms. The most intense convection of the day came late in the evening as a weak disturbance rounded the high pressure and interacted with the rich moisture and instability in place. A mesoscale convective complex feature developed late in the evening across east central New Mexico and produced heavy rain, strong winds, and frequent lightning across the area. The strongest convection was over Quay County where heavy rain forced the closure of New Mexico State Road 469. Strong winds were also felt across Curry County with a 58 mph wind gust recorded in Clovis.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 4:40 PM MST, 1 hour 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Deep moisture and instability over the region has produced another widespread crop of SHRA/TSRA today. Storm motion will be slow and erratic thru this evening. Direct hits will produce MVFR cigs/vsbys in +RA along with strong winds. An organized cluster of storms will progress southward thru eastern NM late this evening with primary impacts at KTCC from 02Z to 06Z. Nocturnal SHRA/TSRA may also develop around the central high terrain aft 06Z then move southeast before tapering off around sunrise. Another widespread round of SHRA/TSRA Sunday midday through afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION...226 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021... .SYNOPSIS... An active Monsoon thunderstorm pattern will persist for the foreseeable future, favoring central and western portions of the state for daily rounds of showers and storms. Expect a relative uptick in storm coverage Sunday, then again on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue as a threat with storms each day. Daytime temperatures will remain within a couple degrees of normal, except on Tuesday and Wednesday when highs will be below normal areawide. Late next week and into next weekend, storms will begin to favor western portions of the state from the Continental Divide to the Arizona border. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... The latest satellite and radar depiction show the H5 high center along I-40 around Torrance County. The 12Z PW of 1.04" at KABQ was in the 90th percentile for mid July so the threat for locally heavy rain from slow-moving storms will continue thru tonight. Convection will organize into a large cluster over eastern NM this evening as a weak perturbation over CO shifts southeast around the upper high and interacts w/ a very moist and unstable airmass. The MCS feature will force deeper moisture farther west thru the RGV tonight w/ nocturnal storm development possible along a surface boundary approaching the central mt chain after midnight. Sunday is looking very active again as the H5 high center shifts north into CO and weak northeast-southwest steering flow sets up over northern NM. PWs are progged to approach 1.15" at KABQ by 12Z Sunday. Moist low level east to southeast flow will deepen further and interact w/ strong heating and instability to allow training cells along north-south terrain features. The threat for localized flash flooding will increase and WPC has highlighted a slight risk for excessive rainfall Sunday afternoon/evening. Forecast models are hinting at another convective cluster organizing along the central mt chain Sunday evening w/ potential for heavy rainfall to continue thru midnight. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued in the area from the central mt chain to the high plains for Sunday. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... The upper high will be strengthening and centered over the CO/UT/WY borders by late Monday, with a mid level ridge axis shifting west across our area. Drier air rotating around the upper high circulation will likely lead to a convective downtrend Monday across much of northern NM, but our southern-most zones will remain fairly active. Tuesday still looks like an uptick day as PWATs trend back up to slightly above normal and the mid level ridge axis shifts west of our area. Storm motion on Tuesday will take storms off of the central mountain chain southwest into the Rio Grande Valley during the afternoon and early evening hours. Expect more of the same Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the primary threats associated with thunderstorms Tue/Wed. Daytime temperatures are forecast to remain below normal Tue/Wed due to the uptick in convection resulting in more cloud cover and rain-cooling. The upper high is forecast to remain centered over CO from mid to late next week, but the 12Z medium range model solutions differ on an easterly wave/low moving into NM Friday into next weekend. Guyer/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... An active monsoon pattern will continue over the next 7 days with locally heavy rainfall. Tonight thru Sunday night will feature the most widespread heavy rainfall followed by a shift into far western NM Monday then back into northern and central NM Tuesday. Steering slow will become more northeast to southwest thru most of next week as the upper high center remains centered over CO. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal for mid July. Guyer && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for the following zones... NMZ212-214-215-218>226-228-229-232-233-237-239. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 341 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 NMZ201>241-181100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 341 AM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected today through the overnight. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars. Isolated locations may receive near 2 inches of rainfall. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected each day. Storm motions will be slow and rainfall could become heavy. This may lead to localized areas of flash flooding, especially over and near recent burn scars. Isolated locations may receive over 2 inches of rainfall, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. A few storms may also produce small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rain amounts and severe weather or flash flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx. 44
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 435 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 NMZ230-172300- Union County- 435 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL UNION COUNTY UNTIL 500 PM MDT... At 435 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11 miles south of Mount Dora, or 15 miles southwest of Clayton, moving south at 20 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Union County. && LAT...LON 3642 10353 3643 10331 3610 10323 3609 10356 TIME...MOT...LOC 2235Z 356DEG 19KT 3635 10342 34
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 459 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 NMZ229-232-172330- Eastern San Miguel County-Northeast Highlands- 459 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM MDT... At 459 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13 miles southwest of Trujillo, or 28 miles southeast of Las Vegas, moving north at 5 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central San Miguel County. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. && LAT...LON 3526 10472 3533 10492 3554 10488 3544 10457 TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 201DEG 5KT 3537 10479 34
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 509 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 NMZ230-231-172345- Harding County-Union County- 509 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HARDING AND CENTRAL UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT... At 508 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18 miles south of Mount Dora, or 20 miles southwest of Clayton, moving south at 15 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Harding and central Union Counties. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy building. Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches. && LAT...LON 3632 10356 3632 10334 3604 10329 3604 10362 TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 000DEG 13KT 3625 10345 34
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
519 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021
NMZ231-172345-
Harding County-
519 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HARDING COUNTY UNTIL 545
PM MDT...
At 519 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Mosquero. This storm was nearly stationary.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.
Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Harding
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
&&
LAT...LON 3573 10358 3565 10388 3570 10391 3584 10392
3590 10371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 340DEG 2KT 3581 10379
34Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 550 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 NMZ234-180015- Quay County- 550 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL QUAY COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM MDT... At 549 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles north of San Jon, or 22 miles east of Tucumcari, moving southeast at 5 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... San Jon and Bard. This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 351 and 368. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy building. && LAT...LON 3522 10347 3533 10329 3518 10310 3502 10336 TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 324DEG 5KT 3522 10334 34
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 631 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 NMZ231-180100- Harding County- 631 PM MDT Sat Jul 17 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HARDING COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM MDT... At 630 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles east of Bueyeros, or 23 miles west of Amistad. This storm was nearly stationary. Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Rosebud. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy building. && LAT...LON 3599 10363 3600 10348 3583 10343 3582 10370 TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 003DEG 3KT 3594 10357 34
The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:06 UTC.
1 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain across eastern Quay County resulted in flash flooding along New Mexico State Road 469. Local law enforcement reported that the roadway became impassable and the road was closed. There are no known impacts.
An AWOS station at the Clovis airport measured a 58 mph wind gust associated with a severe thunderstorm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960626, 960627.