As an area of high pressure built to the east of New Mexico, southerly flow brought higher amounts of atmospheric moisture into the state on August 22, 2021. Meanwhile, a weak embedded disturbance over south central New Mexico also aided in thunderstorm development.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
As an area of high pressure built to the east of New Mexico, southerly flow brought higher amounts of atmospheric moisture into the state on August 22, 2021. Meanwhile, a weak embedded disturbance over south central New Mexico also aided in thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms initially developed over the higher terrain areas of northern and central New Mexico with steering flow moving them in a northeasterly direction. As the atmosphere destabilized during the afternoon hours, thunderstorms intensified. These thunderstorms were generally sub-severe, and a saturated atmosphere led to locally heavy rainfall as the primary threat. However, a stronger thunderstorm near Santa Rosa produced a brief severe thunderstorm wind.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 22, 4:57 PM MST, 1 hour 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 557 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue for several hours after sunset before gradually dissipating. KGUP is the mostly likely TAF site to be impacted by a brief shower or thunderstorm. MVFR ceilings/visibility along with gusty downburst winds can be expected from the stronger cells. Another, more anemic, round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is forecast Monday afternoon with the favored area for convection between the Rio Grande Valley and the Continental Divide. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...244 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021... .SYNOPSIS... After several dry days in a row, moisture is back and will result in improving coverage of showers and storms through the work week and especially into the weekend. Much of northwest New Mexico will remain dry through mid week, but by the weekend good chances for showers and storms are expected across most of northern and central New Mexico. Slow storm motion will lead to locally heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flash flooding, especially from Friday through the weekend. Daytime highs will be above normal areawide through mid week, then trend down closer to normal as increased moisture brings added cloud cover and rain cooling. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)... An upper level perturbation is currently lifting northeastward over the forecast area, located near or just slightly north of Lincoln county as of this writing. Warm-moist air advection preceded this feature and today’s crop of thunderstorms initiated considerably earlier than yesterday’s with more efficient rainfall happening in the vicinity of the shortwave aloft. Most central to south central zones will remain favored for convection with locally heavy rainfall through the evening, and while cells will propagate northeastward the rain probabilities will fall off fairly quickly east of the central mountain chain with just an isolated threat toward the eastern NM and west TX border. High pressure aloft over the ARKLATEX region will begin to elongate on a west east axis on Monday. Still, a southwest-northeast oriented plume of moisture should linger over NM with PWATs reaching a 1.0 to 1.2 inch range in this corridor. This will fuel another round of storms Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible, mostly in southwestern, south central and surrounding zones. Temperatures will generally be seasonable, but readings will climb several degrees above in the northeast plains where relatively drier downsloping breezes will prevail amid a weak lee-side surface trough. 52 LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... Pressure heights will continue an uptrend Tuesday to near 593dam at 500mb as the upper high to the east extends a ridge axis over the state. A fairly dry airmass across the northern NM will keep that area convection free, but areas along/south of I-40 will see a daytime heating triggered round Tuesday afternoon. Slow storm motion on Tuesday will lead to some locally heavy rainfall, but coverage of deeper convection with sustained updrafts will be isolated at best. Highs on Tuesday will be above normal areawide. Wednesday is looking similar overall, but moisture is forecast to creep further north Tuesday night setting the stage for improved coverage of storms by Wednesday afternoon across northern NM. The ridge will weaken from mid to late week as the upper high moves further east/northeast away from NM and a broad trough takes shape across the Pacific NW and northern Rockies, allowing more Gulf moisture to stream north into NM. This development will lead to increasing PWATs with an uptrend in storm coverage and a downtrend in daytime highs back closer to normal. Steering flow will be light from Friday through the weekend, leading to slower storm motion and increasing the threat for flash flooding. 52/11 && .FIRE WEATHER... The best wetting rainfall potential will stretch from southwestern to central zones today and Monday, gradually tapering off toward the northern zones. Showers and storms will remain absent over the northwest plateau, and this will be where overnight RH recoveries will be lower (generally reaching 50 to 60 percent) while other remaining areas observing excellent recoveries tonight and Monday night. Into Tuesday and Wednesday a reduction in the number of storms is expected due to the less than ideal orientation of the ridge axis over NM. Still, isolated to scattered storms will be possible from the southwestern mountains to the central zones on Tuesday, expanding to the northern mountains on Wednesday. Prevailing breezes will remain light and any wind concerns will be relegated to local thunderstorm outflows. As high pressure weakens late in the week and into the weekend, storms and wetting rainfall potential will tend favor the southwestern and northern mountains of NM, potentially undergoing a slow day-by-day increase and expansion. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for the following zones... NMZ208-226-239-241. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 309 AM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 NMZ201>241-231100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 309 AM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The potential for locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding increases this afternoon and tonight, especially for locales generally along and east of the Continental Divide and stretching to the Pecos Valley. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Showers and storms will be fewer in number and areal coverage Monday through Wednesday, remaining focused over mainly the northern and western high terrain. Showers and storms are forecast to increase a bit by Friday and Saturday, and will expand in areal coverage into the eastern plains. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and impacts such as flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. You can also submit storm reports and photos on our Facebook page or via Twitter using the hashtag nmwx.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
NMZ208-241-222200-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-Southwest Mountains-
329 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL SOCORRO
AND EAST CENTRAL CATRON COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...
At 329 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles southwest of National Radio Astronomy Observatory, or 19 miles
south of Datil, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
National Radio Astronomy Observatory.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 84 and 94.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3372 10782 3406 10786 3419 10757 3377 10745
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 239DEG 13KT 3388 10774
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
414 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
NMZ208-241-222245-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-Southwest Mountains-
414 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL SOCORRO
COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM MDT...
At 413 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of National Radio Astronomy Observatory, or 24 miles east
of Datil, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Magdalena.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 93 and 117.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3393 10752 3410 10758 3423 10722 3398 10707
TIME...MOT...LOC 2213Z 254DEG 13KT 3403 10743
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
447 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
NMZ208-220-241-222315-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-Lower Rio Grande
Valley-Southwest Mountains-
447 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOCORRO
COUNTY THROUGH 515 PM MDT...
At 447 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles south of Magdalena, or 22 miles west of Socorro, moving
southeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Magdalena.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 105 and 114, and
between Mile Markers 118 and 128.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3391 10744 3414 10735 3411 10699 3372 10718
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 302DEG 11KT 3399 10729
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
500 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
NMZ232-233-222330-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
500 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL AND NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM MDT...
At 500 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Colonias, or 20 miles northwest of Santa Rosa, moving northeast at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Colonias.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3513 10459 3510 10489 3525 10496 3532 10480
3532 10479 3533 10479 3538 10468
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 246DEG 12KT 3521 10485
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
529 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
NMZ232-233-230000-
Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
529 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL AND NORTH CENTRAL GUADALUPE COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM MDT...
At 529 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Colonias, or 20 miles north of Santa Rosa, moving
east at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central San
Miguel and north central Guadalupe Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3514 10451 3511 10484 3530 10489 3533 10481
3532 10479 3533 10479 3540 10459
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 255DEG 11KT 3522 10478
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
544 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
NMZ236-238-230015-
Chaves County Plains-Roosevelt County-
544 PM MDT Sun Aug 22 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ROOSEVELT AND NORTHEASTERN CHAVES COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM MDT...
At 544 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Kenna, or 33 miles northwest of Tatum, moving
northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of south central
Roosevelt and northeastern Chaves Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3366 10345 3357 10367 3357 10368 3368 10373
3379 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 232DEG 10KT 3367 10361
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CAThe Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:42 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
An AWOS station in Santa Rosa measured a 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 969825.