A storm system over southeast New Mexico combined with an abundant amount of atmospheric moisture resulted in numerous thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico on August 12, 2021. Thunderstorms formed early in the afternoon across the high terrain, and steering flow tracked thunderstorms in a southerly to southwesterly direction.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A storm system over southeast New Mexico combined with an abundant amount of atmospheric moisture resulted in numerous thunderstorms across eastern New Mexico on August 12, 2021. Thunderstorms formed early in the afternoon across the high terrain, and steering flow tracked thunderstorms in a southerly to southwesterly direction. Steering flow was fast enough to limit a widespread flooding threat, but one particular thunderstorm near Fort Sumner produced very heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of two to three inches near Fort Sumner and Taiban in De Baca County resulted in flash flooding in the area. Meanwhile, a decaying thunderstorm near Clayton produced a brief strong downburst that resulted in a 59 mph gust.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 12, 2:21 PM MST, 11 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 321 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Storm chances will continue to increase through Saturday, mainly south of Interstate 40 and east of Interstate 25. Areas of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible, with amounts of 2-3 inches total. Temperatures will drop closer to seasonal averages for mid-August starting tomorrow. The forecast generally trends drier Sunday and Monday, but storm coverage ramps up again by mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... Showers and storms are more numerous this afternoon compared to 24 hours ago, thanks to increasing moisture and a weak upper circulation stretched from south central to northeast NM. Models have analyzed this feature farther north than yesterday, and cells have been developing even over far northeast NM. Consequently, the focus for heavy rainfall has also stretched farther north, and the Flash Flood Watch area from 3 pm this afternoon to 6 am Friday also does, pretty much in agreement with the WPC ERO Day 1 Slight risk area. There is potential for heavy rain to persist overnight tonight in the watch area, if the NAM12, HREF, HRRR, etc are right. Although confidence is relatively low, went ahead and put some patchy fog in the weather grids for late tonight and early Friday morning from the east slopes of the central mountain chain to the TX border, given the wet environment. Expect the Flash Flood Watch will be adjusted in area and/or time for Friday and Friday night at some point as forecast models tend to move the upper low slowly south and westward as the upper high center expands into Colorado. The far northwest corner of the state will be least likely to see rain in the short term. High temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees cooler central and east on Friday, pushing them farther below normal as compared to today. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... Locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding continues on Saturday, mainly along and south of Interstate 40. The upper-level high will be located over the Great Basin, with the low somewhere across southern New Mexico, acting as the lift to keep precipitation going. Some locations will average around 1-2" between Saturday and Sunday, with locally higher amounts possible due to upslope flow and slow storm motions. It is likely that the Flash Flood Watch issued through Friday will be extended through the Saturday period. As of right now, the WPC ERO Day 3 outlook has a slight risk outlined for the far southern portion of the forecast area. Temperatures stay near to below across much of the forecast area, with the exception of above normal temperatures across the northern portion of the state on Saturday. On Sunday, the upper-level low slides back to the south and west, as the high builds over the Great Basin. PWAT's drop near or below the 1" range Sunday and Monday. 12z models generally have the high over New Mexico by Tuesday, before a longwave trough drops down from the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF has this trough further south than previous model runs; this could mean precipitation chances continuing well into the latter portion of next week. 99/31 && .FIRE WEATHER... Cell motion tonight will be slowly to the southwest over central and western New Mexico while in the east central part of the state, cells will move from north to south. Locally heavy rainfall which could lead to flash flooding is possible over portions of south central and eastern New Mexico, but any cell will be capable of heavy rain. The far northwest corner of the state is least likely to see rain tonight. An upper low/trough stretched from south central to northeast New Mexico will move slowly to the south and west late this week and early next week. This will result in a wet period with scattered to numerous showers and storms, some of which will produce heavy rain, especially along and south of I-40. There may be a brief downtick in the number of showers and storms Sunday and Monday, but if it occurs it may not last. Forecast models for mid to late next week seem to keep a tap of monsoon moisture flowing over at least part of New Mexico. The higher and good to excellent ventilation rates will favor northern New Mexico Friday and Saturday. 99 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE A weak upper low/trough over se and east central NM will lead to sct-nmrs showers and tstms, especially along and south of I-40 and east of I-25. Storm motion will be to the sw around 10-15 kts over nrn and wrn NM but will be more erratic over south central and east central NM. Brief mt obscurations with MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are possible in the stronger storms. Showers and tstms to persist aft 03Z, especially east of the central mountain chain where terrain will become obscured in sct MVFR to IFR cigs/vsybs in br and rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 64 93 63 91 / 10 20 20 20 Dulce........................... 53 87 49 87 / 20 40 30 40 Cuba............................ 58 80 53 80 / 30 40 30 30 Gallup.......................... 59 87 58 86 / 20 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 55 81 55 79 / 40 40 30 30 Grants.......................... 57 82 57 81 / 40 40 30 30 Quemado......................... 56 79 56 78 / 60 60 50 50 Magdalena....................... 58 77 57 73 / 70 70 60 60 Datil........................... 54 75 55 72 / 70 70 50 60 Reserve......................... 56 80 58 80 / 70 80 60 70 Glenwood........................ 61 82 63 82 / 60 80 70 80 Chama........................... 52 80 46 80 / 20 40 40 40 Los Alamos...................... 60 79 54 77 / 30 50 40 40 Pecos........................... 57 73 53 75 / 60 70 40 50 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 77 46 80 / 20 50 30 40 Red River....................... 45 67 42 72 / 30 50 30 40 Angel Fire...................... 43 69 42 72 / 40 60 40 40 Taos............................ 51 80 49 82 / 30 50 20 30 Mora............................ 53 69 49 73 / 50 70 40 40 Espanola........................ 57 86 56 85 / 20 40 30 30 Santa Fe........................ 60 78 55 78 / 50 60 30 40 Santa Fe Airport................ 58 81 55 81 / 40 50 30 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 65 80 61 81 / 50 50 40 30 Albuquerque Heights............. 65 81 63 83 / 40 50 40 30 Albuquerque Valley.............. 63 84 64 84 / 40 50 40 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 65 83 62 83 / 40 40 30 30 Belen........................... 65 84 63 84 / 50 50 50 40 Bernalillo...................... 64 85 61 86 / 40 50 30 30 Bosque Farms.................... 63 83 63 83 / 50 50 40 30 Corrales........................ 64 84 62 85 / 40 50 30 30 Los Lunas....................... 63 84 63 84 / 50 50 40 30 Placitas........................ 63 82 59 80 / 40 50 30 30 Rio Rancho...................... 65 83 61 85 / 40 40 30 30 Socorro......................... 64 84 63 81 / 60 60 60 50 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 60 75 56 75 / 50 60 40 40 Tijeras......................... 62 77 58 78 / 50 60 40 40 Edgewood........................ 59 75 56 77 / 50 60 40 40 Moriarty/Estancia............... 57 74 56 76 / 50 60 40 40 Clines Corners.................. 56 69 53 73 / 70 70 50 40 Mountainair..................... 58 74 56 74 / 70 70 60 50 Gran Quivira.................... 58 73 56 72 / 70 80 70 50 Carrizozo....................... 62 74 59 75 / 70 80 70 60 Ruidoso......................... 56 65 53 64 / 80 90 70 70 Capulin......................... 55 74 52 78 / 40 50 20 20 Raton........................... 53 79 52 82 / 30 50 20 20 Springer........................ 55 77 53 81 / 40 50 30 20 Las Vegas....................... 55 69 53 74 / 60 70 40 40 Clayton......................... 62 79 60 82 / 40 40 20 20 Roy............................. 58 71 54 78 / 60 60 40 20 Conchas......................... 64 77 61 83 / 70 60 50 30 Santa Rosa...................... 65 75 61 79 / 70 70 60 40 Tucumcari....................... 67 80 63 81 / 70 60 40 30 Clovis.......................... 66 77 61 74 / 70 60 60 50 Portales........................ 67 79 62 75 / 70 60 60 50 Fort Sumner..................... 67 75 63 76 / 80 70 60 40 Roswell......................... 68 78 68 77 / 70 70 60 50 Picacho......................... 63 71 60 75 / 70 80 70 60 Elk............................. 59 67 56 71 / 70 80 70 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones... NMZ223>226-229-231>240. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 315 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 NMZ201>241-131100- Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands- Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains- West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains- San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama- Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains- East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley- Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area- Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area- Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood- Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands- Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains- Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass- Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County- Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County- Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County- Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County- San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands- 315 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central New Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor. Flash flooding may occur, especially over recent burn scars, areas of complex terrain, and within urban drainages. Storm motions will very slow and erratic. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday and Saturday mainly along and south of the I-40 corridor. Flash flooding may occur, especially in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall, over burn scars, complex terrain, urban drainages, and low lying areas. Rises in creeks and streams may occur across southern portions of the area in response to several days of widespread heavy rainfall. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected Sunday and Monday with locally heavy rainfall still possible. Another uptick in storm coverage may occur Tuesday and Wednesday with potential for more flash flooding across the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637. Guyer
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1225 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
NMZ234-121900-
Quay County-
1225 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN QUAY
COUNTY THROUGH 100 PM MDT...
At 1225 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Nara Visa, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nara Visa.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3536 10316 3546 10338 3574 10331 3566 10304
3552 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 208DEG 16KT 3549 10325
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
40Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
103 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
NMZ234-121930-
Quay County-
103 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN QUAY
COUNTY THROUGH 130 PM MDT...
At 102 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Nara Visa, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nara Visa.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Heavy rains will cause water to pond on roads and in low spots. Fast
running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.
&&
LAT...LON 3544 10315 3553 10334 3574 10324 3574 10317
3567 10304 3553 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 212DEG 10KT 3555 10320
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
40Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
140 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
NMZ235-236-122015-
Roosevelt County-Curry County-
140 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CURRY COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM MDT...
At 139 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles west of Portales, moving northeast at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Floyd, Oasis State Park and Saint Vrain.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 370 and 375.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3409 10348 3419 10366 3445 10350 3432 10326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 212DEG 9KT 3421 10353
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
40Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
322 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
NMZ232>238-122145-
Eastern San Miguel County-Chaves County Plains-Guadalupe
County-Roosevelt County-Curry County-Quay County-De Baca County-
322 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN ROOSEVELT,
SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL, EASTERN DE BACA, NORTHEASTERN CHAVES,
SOUTHWESTERN QUAY, SOUTHWESTERN CURRY AND EAST CENTRAL GUADALUPE
COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...
At 321 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Tucumcari to 6 miles north of Tolar to
near Elida. Movement was west at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Tucumcari, Fort Sumner, Quay, Elida, House, Ragland, Tolar, Montoya,
Kenna and Taiban.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 306 and 344.
Highway 60 between Mile Markers 325 and 359.
State Road 104 near Mile Marker 105.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3368 10393 3445 10430 3519 10415 3520 10351
3454 10374 3385 10348
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 073DEG 11KT 3515 10372 3455 10393 3391 10363
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
327 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
NMZ231-122200-
Harding County-
327 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL HARDING
COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM MDT...
At 327 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles south of Bueyeros, or 19 miles east of Mosquero. This storm was
nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Harding County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3586 10369 3583 10348 3563 10348 3569 10380
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 013DEG 3KT 3578 10361
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
329 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
NMZ228-231-122200-
Far Northeast Highlands-Harding County-
329 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN HARDING
AND EAST CENTRAL MORA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM MDT...
At 329 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mills, or 24 miles east of Wagon Mound, moving southwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mills.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3621 10425 3604 10417 3590 10443 3615 10456
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 066DEG 10KT 3610 10430
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPHThe Amarillo radar (KAMA), 188 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:31 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
An ASOS station in Clayton recorded a 59 mph thunderstorm wind gust.
Heavy rain with totals of two to three inches within an hour produced flash flooding along New Mexico State Highway 272. A trained spotter reported that the highway near Fort Sumner was impassable due to water over the roadway. Damages are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 966005, 966007.