Damaging Wind in Nevada, May 16, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1150 AM PDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will bring scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the region today and Monday, mainly across
Eastern California and Southern Nevada. A few storms may produce
gusty and erratic winds. Temperatures will climb through mid week
before cooling off again by the end of the week along with a
return of gusty winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Tuesday night.

As of 1130 AM, convection is starting to fire across the Nevada
Test site and higher elevation ridges of Inyo and Esmeralda
counties. CAPE values across this region range from the 250-750
j/kg range, and this instability is projected to spread eastward
through the afternoon. The current forecast remains on track for
isolated showers and thunderstorm activity across most of Southern
NEvada and Inyo county this afternoon and evening. Deep inverted
V soundings and some mid level dry air will encourage some locally
strong downdrafts with gusts up to 50 mph possible.

The upper low drifts overhead tonight and into the four corners
region on Monday, shower activity will tend to diminish with the
loss of daytime heating tonight, but will regenerate Monday
afternoon, favoring Lincoln and Mohave counties. Given the
unstable northerly flow in place tomorrow, A few isolated showers
may drift southward off the higher terrain and into Clark County
in the afternoon and evenings as well.

Shortwave ridging will tend to build in on Tuesday allowing for
an appreciable upward bump in temperatures. A couple lingering
terrain driven showers will remain possible in Lincoln county, but
things will tend to dry out Tuesday onward.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

An increasing southwest flow aloft is forecast on Wednesday as a
strong low pressure system moves to the Pacific Northwest. Across
our area on Wednesday, breezy conditions are possible along with
well above normal temperatures. The low pressure system is forecast
to move over the western states Thursday through Friday and possibly
into Saturday. This system is expected to bring increasing winds
which could be strong enough to warrant wind headlines in the later
part of the week. The track takes the system north of our area where
the better chances of showers will be. Moisture is more limited
further south across our area and only a slight chance for showers
is forecast and mainly across south central Nevada. The system
will bring in cooler air with well below normal temperatures
forecast on Friday and Saturday.

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.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty south-southwest winds will prevail
this afternoon, with gusts 20-22 kts expected and clear skies. Mid-
to-late afternoon, uncertainty enters the forecast regarding
vicinity showers. If showers and thunderstorms form over the Spring
Mountains, there is a strong signal of gusty northwest winds coming
down the mountain and impacting the terminal with ceilings down to
8000 ft from 23Z to 01Z. The strength of the southwesterly winds
for the remainder of the evening will be weaker than forecast if
the northwest winds come to fruition. Winds will be diurnal,
generally below 8 kts overnight and Monday morning before another
southwesterly push Monday afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty south-southwest winds expected across the area,
with KDAG trending more westerly. The Las Vegas Valley sites may
experience a push of northwesterly gusts due to storm formation on
the Spring Mountains as well as a ceiling drop to 8000 ft. There
is evidence that this NW push reaches down to KIFP in the early
evening, but low confidence. Vicinity showers expected to impact
KBIH which could cause erratic gusty winds from their direction,
likely favoring either due north or due south as the storms pass
over the Owens Valley. Otherwise, gusts and isolated shower
formation diminish after sunset, becoming diurnal overnight.
Southwest winds return Monday afternoon.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Scattered thunderstorms and gusty
winds are expected today and Monday. Spotters are encouraged to
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard
operating procedures.

&&

SHORT TERM...Outler
LONG TERM...Salmen
AVIATION...Varian

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