Damaging Wind in Nevada, August 4, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
214 PM PDT Wed Aug 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures expected today and tomorrow.
Isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms
also expected both days as well, especially across northern Nevada.
Winds will also become gusty tomorrow. Dry and cooler for Friday

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.SHORT TERM...This afternoon through Friday evening

Ridge axis over the state begins to shift east as trough
approaches NorCal. Expect very warm to hot conditions again today
with highs in the 90s to low 100s; hottest in Humboldt county.
More high based showers/storms expected this afternoon/evening as
a ribbon of 600- 500mb moisture (PWAT 0.60"-0.80"+) and weak
instability (CAPE 200- 400 J/kg) continues to slowly drift under
the ridge into eastern NV today. Based on amount of convective
returns yesterday and CAM trends for today, have increased PoPs
across much of northeast/central NV. While most of the activity
looks to be dry, a heavier shower can't be ruled under stronger
updrafts as storm motions will be slow. On Thursday, flow aloft
becomes more southwest as ridge shifts east into UT and compact
shortwave pushes across NorCal into northern NV, dragging front
across with it. The residual moisture and instability will still
linger across Elko county and a more showers/storms possible.
Better forcing aloft and increasing shear values could result in
some better organized stronger storms, mainly over northern NV. A
few showers/storms can't be rules out across Humboldt county as
the upper low works across later in the day. EC EFI Wind Speed and
Gust showing values of 0.7-0.9 and NAEFS 700mb winds showing 2-3+
standardized anomalies. Along with good model agreement in timing
and location of shortwave, have high confidence for elevated
winds. Expect winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35+ mph as stronger
winds aloft readily mix down. Highs generally in the 90s. Cooler
and dry behind the front on Friday as the upper low/trough pass to
the east and the flow aloft becomes northwest. Some breezy winds
linger for Elko county as the gradient remains a bit tighter there
in proximity to the departing wave. Refreshing highs in the 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through next Wednesday...

A dry period with little or no precipitation, including
thunderstorms, are expected through this period. Northern half of
Nevada will be on the southern fringe of the westerly flow. A low
amplitude trough along the Pacific Northwest will moves across
the northern tier states early next week. This pattern favors dry
stable air across much of the Great Basin as the monsoonal plume
stays suppressed or east of our region.  By next Tuesday or
Wednesday, isolated storms may occur over the central NV mountains
but only a small number of ensemble solutions show this solution.
With respect to temperatures, seasonably hot with valleys in the
upper 80s to mid 90s.

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.AVIATION...Brief showers and thunderstorms will be in the
vicinity of KEKO and KELY until 03Z this evening (sunset). After
the diurnal driven convection ends, no impactful weather is
expected until Thursday afternoon when gusty winds exceeding
G25KTS become common after 19Z.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Mix of mostly dry and a few wet storms today as
elevated moisture and instability lingers under high pressure.
Activity will be high based, lending towards dry, but slow moving,
lending towards wet. Most lightning was in cloud yesterday, but
there was some cloud to ground. Expect that potential to continue
today and expecting LALs of 2 generally. On Thursday southwesterly
winds will increase as a shortwave pushes into northwest NV, with
some areas seeing winds and RHs approaching critical levels. Even
though HDW index likely being between 75-95th percentile, with
recent rain and cooler weather, much of the region does not have
critical fuels. only Humboldt county (fire zone 437) is currently
critical and have issued a RFW for Thursday. Will have to monitor
438 and 424 for possible RFW as the fuels there approach critical.
Cooler and dry for Friday with some breezy winds lingering for
Elko county.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Thursday for Humboldt
County-Quinn-Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander
County-W Elko County, N Eureka and Lander Counties N of I80.

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