Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, May 8, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
311 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

A few light returns are evident on radar this afternoon along a
warm frontal boundary draped across the northwestern fringes of
the local area. The dryline is located across western
Kansas...and into southwestern Nebraska. So far...little if any
precipitation from the light returns is reaching the ground...but
continue to expect the radar to get more active over the next few
hours as the associated area of low pressure across southeastern
Colorado tracks east and a cold front crosses the local area late
this afternoon through evening. This front is expected to be the
focus of thunderstorm activity this evening as it rapidly tracks
southeast and largely through the local area by around midnight
tonight.

At 3 PM...SPC mesoanalysis indicates around 500 J/KG of CAPE
across south central Nebraska...increasing to near 2000 J/KG
across north central Kansas. With the best shear values across
north central Kansas and eastern fringes of the area...expect the
strongest storms to be located where these parameters
overlap...with all modes of severe weather possible...although
large hail and damaging wind gusts remain the most favored. Latest
NAM and CAMS are initiating convection a bit further
northwest than previous runs...which makes sense given the
current location of the front. As a result...expect convection to
fire up in the 5 to 7 PM time frame stretching from Dawson to
Valley county...rapidly intensifying and tracking east southeast
as it crosses the tri-cities during the early evening hours.
Again, while some hail and strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out
with this initial convection, the more widespread and better
changes for severe weather look to be just southeast of the tri-
cities and into north central Kansas this evening where the
combination of best shear and instability exist.

With the quick progression of this system...expect the chance for
thunderstorms to diminish rapidly behind the cold front...and for
any post frontal precipitation to be winding down by daybreak
Sunday. That said...Sunday still does not appear to be the nicest
day as clouds are expected to linger along with breezy north winds
and temperatures 15-25 degrees below recent days. In fact...Sunday
will mark the first day of a prolonged stretch of below normal
temperatures across the local area through at least mid week...as
a trough aloft continues across the plains with off and on again
small chances for light rain showers. Later in the week...expect
high pressure to begin to nudge across the area from the
west...with temperatures returning closer to normal and at least
the chance for a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

Windy conditions are materializing at both terminals this
afternoon as an area of low pressure continues to intensify on the
lee side of the Rockies. This area of low pressure will track
east late this afternoon/evening...with winds gradually
backing...but remaining strong with gusts to near 30 KTS...through
the overnight hours as a cold front crosses the terminals. Expect
TSRAs to develop along this front, with KGRI more favored for a
few thunderstorms this evening as the low tracks east.
Thunderstorm potential should rapidly diminish behind this
front...with MVFR CIGS setting in for the remainder of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
240 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
091945-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
240 PM CDT Sat May 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across portions of the area
this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could be severe,
mainly for areas along and south of a line extending from Alma,
to Hastings, to York, NE. The primary threats will be large hail
to around the size of golf balls and damaging winds to around 60
mph. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, especially across
north central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Areas of frost are possible Sunday night and Monday morning,
primarily for areas north of Interstate 80 and west of Highway
281.

Additional thunderstorm chances return to portions of the area
Thursday evening, and again Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Reports of damaging wind gusts, hail of any size as well as
funnel clouds or tornadoes are always appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
550 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             CARLETON                40.31N 97.68W
05/08/2021  E0.70 INCH       THAYER             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL IN CARLETON.

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
600 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             4 N LAWRENCE            40.35N 98.26W
05/08/2021  M0.25 INCH       CLAY               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&