Extreme drought (D3) over much of Boyd County and Severe drought (D2) over northern Holt County. Little change from previous week.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LBF wrote it up.
Extreme drought (D3) over much of Boyd County and Severe drought (D2) over northern Holt County. Little change from previous week.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS North Platte, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 5:34 PM CST, 6 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 634 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 The forecast area currently sits under the influence of a expansive upper level ridge axis which encompasses much of the contiguous forty- eight. Topping the ridge is a train of weak shortwaves that have been targeting the north central Rockies and portions of the northern plains with convection today. At 850, increasing southerly flow will be seen this evening and overnight, but veer slightly easterly toward dawn. AT the surface, a cold front is noted east off the High Plains and into the Dakotas. The front will be the primary driver of our sensible weather /including convection/ over the next 36 hours. The immediate concern lies with the next wave that is sparking convection across western and south central South Dakota. The latest CAMS do suggest some of this activity spilling south into northern Nebraska. Relatively high PWATs /nearing 1.50"/ and increasing CAPE upwards of 2500 j/kg would suggest robust updrafts with heavy rain potential, but shear is greatly challenged. Would expect slow moving, pulsey multi-cellular type storms, though cannot rule out a marginally severe hailer or wind threat as the effective shear increases as the evening wears on. The front slides south this evening and overnight and is expected over eastern portions of the CWA by mid-afternoon Tuesday. The pre- frontal airmass will be hot and unstable with upwards of up to several thousand joules of CAPE, leading to concerns about strong to severe storms capable of gusty wind and marginally severe hail, but once again, effective shear is less than ideal for widespread organized convection. Would expect another multi-cellular type storms that are pulsey in nature. Pops maybe too high for this event and need to be lowered on the eventual outcome of the frontal boundary. Something else that should be monitored Tuesday afternoon is the nonsupercell tornado potential and while the threat is not overly impressive, again depending on the location of the front, an argument can be made with the enhanced stretching potential, slow moving boundaries and relatively light winds along and ahead of the boundaries. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 Chances for precipitation drop off on Wednesday as the cold front exits to the southeast and upper level instability diminishes. A warm front will move into the area on Thursday, bringing surface temperatures into the 90s. POPs are expected to return on Thursday night into Friday as a surface low moves across Nebraska. At the same time, an upper level low will move into the northern mountain states to the northwest of Nebraska. Between surface moisture with dew points in the 60s, the surface low, and the instability ahead of the upper level low, thunderstorms appear possible. Over the weekend, storm chances recede again and temperatures will be in the 80s, which is below normal for mid July. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 For southern terminals, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. VFR is expected for northern terminals at least til early morning tomorrow. Currently, KVTN is seeing some VCTS, but most of the activity seems to be staying just north in South Dakota. Storms are also occurring in the Nebraska Panhandle, but confidence is low that it will stay together long enough to affect KLBF. Overnight, a front will move through and cause a wind shift to be generally from the north. There is another chance for showers and storms tomorrow afternoon, around 18Z or so for both terminals. Thinking the better chances will be for southwest to central Nebraska but will update as new obs and model runs populate. Last item to note, northern terminals tomorrow morning will experience some low CIGs, potentially dipping into IFR levels. This should only last a few hours before CIGs raise. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ007-010. && SHORT TERM...Jacobs LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Sinclair
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service North Platte NE 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-062100- Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden- Grant-Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson- Logan-Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier- Western Cherry- 348 PM CDT Mon Jul 5 2021 /248 PM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north central Nebraska. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for portions of north central Nebraska through early this evening. Please refer to this product for more information. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon across northern Nebraska. A few storms may be strong with hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall the main concerns. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. Scattered thunderstorms become possible early Tuesday morning across the eastern Panhandle, translating east into much of western and north central Nebraska through the daytime. A few storms may be strong with the area of greatest concern southeast of an Ogallala to Ainsworth line. Isolated hail and gusty winds in addition to locally heavy rain are the main concerns. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday. At this time, the threat for widespread severe weather is low during this period. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS. && Get your weather, hydrological, and climate information at http://www.weather.gov/northplatte
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
721 PM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021
NEZ004-060200-
Sheridan NE-
721 PM MDT Mon Jul 5 2021
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY UNTIL
800 PM MDT...
At 720 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
extending from near Pine Ridge to 12 miles south of Hay Springs.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Gordon, Rushville, Hay Springs, Clinton, Intersection of Highway 87
and Craven Creek Road, Lone Butte, Intersection of Highway 87 and
Larabee Road, Highway 27 crossing the Niobrara River, Mount Maria,
Highway 250 crossing the Niobrara River, Walgren Lake State
Recreation Area, Hoover Lake, and Pine Ridge.
LAT...LON 4300 10209 4278 10208 4243 10224 4242 10275
4244 10275 4244 10277 4254 10278 4299 10258
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 244DEG 31KT 4301 10252 4251 10274
SnivelyThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme drought (D3) for central and eastern Boyd Co. Severe drought (D2) over far western. Little change from previous week.
Severe drought (D2) over northern Holt County (roughly along and north of Hwy 20). Moderate drought (D1) over southern portions. Little change from previous week.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 963343, 963344.