Hail and Damaging Winds in Montana, June 9, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
319 PM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread across north
central and southwest Montana this afternoon through late
evening Some storms could become severe across north central
Montana, producing strong and gusty outflow winds, large hail. On
Thursday, a Pacific cool front moves through the region,
producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms. It
turns drier and warmer over the weekend, with near record high
temperatures possible early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Friday...Once again, an unsettled southwesterly
flow aloft with an embedded disturbance will prevail across
western and central Montana late this afternoon through this
evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop between
4 PM and 6 PM MDT and some storms are expected to become severe
with strong outflow winds, large hail, and a small risk for an
isolated tornado. Strong to severe storms are expected to
diminish by late evening, but showers and a few thunderstorms cold
continue overnight and into Thursday morning. On Thursday, a
Pacific cool front will move through the region by afternoon.
Expect gusty west winds to develop behind the front. There will
continue to be a chance for thunderstorms along the front as well,
with a marginal risk of severe storms over the eastern portions
of the region during the late afternoon and evening. Afternoon
temperatures on Thursday will be well below normal over the
western portions of the area, and near normal elsewhere. Friday
morning low temperatures will be near freezing in some locations,
especially across southwestern Montana. Mostly dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures are expected on Friday.

Saturday through Wednesday...Expect mostly dry conditions, along
with a significant warming trend from Saturday through Tuesday.
The peak of the next heat wave looks to occur on Tuesday, with
afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in many areas. At
this time, probability information indicates most areas should
remain below 100 degrees. On Wednesday, a Pacific cool front will
move through the region, resulting in windy conditions developing.
Fire concerns could start to increase by this time next week.
Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
1140 AM MDT Wed Jun 9 2021 (09/18Z TAF period)

Main concern today is the thunderstorm potential this afternoon over
North Central MT. There is the potential for strong thunderstorms
with a wind/hail threat over much of North Central MT. Most of the
strong storms will develop around 2Z today and continue through
later this evening, with the potential for strong winds, moderate to
large hail, and a very small potential for Tornadoes (mainly over an
area surrounding KGTF, KHVR, and KCTB). Scattered showers with some
embedded thunderstorms will likely carry into the overnight period
as well. VFR conditions will prevail otherwise, however, under any
showers or thunderstorms, MVFR to IFR conditions are likely.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  50  66  41  71 /  50  70  30   0
CTB  45  58  40  66 /  80  80  10   0
HLN  52  71  40  74 /  30  90  20   0
BZN  49  75  35  71 /  10  70  40   0
WYS  43  60  27  61 /  10  60  40   0
DLN  49  65  32  67 /  10 100  30   0
HVR  54  74  46  72 /  60  50  40   0
LWT  50  77  40  69 /  30  60  70   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls