Pockets of flooding occurred in the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Rainfall rates increased the night of the 17th into early on the 18th as a mid level shortwave trough pushed southeastward into the Plains states and interacted with a warm front lifting |northward across the Ohio River Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Pockets of flooding occurred in the Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri. Rainfall rates increased the night of the 17th into early on the 18th as a mid level shortwave trough pushed southeastward into the Plains states and interacted with a warm front lifting |northward across the Ohio River Valley. A southwesterly 850 mb low level jet ramped up to 40 to 45 knots, and precipitable water values were very high for this time of year. General rainfall amounts averaged around 3 inches in 24 hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 5:05 AM CST, 4 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 505 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 257 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 We will go ahead and cancel the Flood Watch. HiRes guidance shows better axis of QPF will set up southeast of the Watch through the early to mid morning hours. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night) Issued at 140 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to progress east across the CWFA this morning. Locally heavy rain remains a concern. However we do not have any reports of water issues at this time. Now that the upper trof out west is pushing this way, we see progression with the convection that should preclude any flooding concerns. We cannot rule out isolated issues. We may be canceling the watch early. As surface low pressure continues across the Ohio Valley up to the Northeast U.S. a cold front will push south and east of the region, with strong high pressure building in. This will result in dry and cool conditions tonight through Monday night. There will be a dry cold frontal passage late Monday, with nil moisture to work with. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 140 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 Quiet weather will continue Tuesday through Friday, as the overall airmass will be fairly dry in a quasi zonal mid tropospheric flow pattern. Temperatures will be slightly above average for this time of year. The NBM has a slight chance of rain in by Friday. Confidence in this happening is very low at this time. && .AVIATION... Issued at 505 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 A cold front will continue to move across the area early this morning shifting SSW winds to the NW 10 to 15 kts with some gusts over 20 kts. A wide range of cigs will become predominantly IFR behind the front. Some improvement is expected this afternoon and tonight as the drier air works in. Rain chances this morning will diminish from west to east as the day wears on. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 300 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 300 AM CST Sat Dec 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding occurred on the St. Francis River. Low-lying fields, woods, and river access sites were underwater.
Emergency management officials reported some lesser travelled roads were impassable, mainly access roads to camping areas. Low water crossings on these roads were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 996340, 996327.