Two to three and half inches of rain lead to flooding across much of northern Wayne County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
Two to three and half inches of rain lead to flooding across much of northern Wayne County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 8:42 AM EST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 .UPDATE... High end moisture content in place across the southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, as 12z dtx sounding checked in with a 5 C dew pt at 700 MB, with 7 C at KILX. Persistent 850 MB shear axis hanging around the I-94/I-96 corridor through the day draws concern for flooding, as lack of instability is the main reason to give pause. However, if capes are able to get into the 500-1000 J/kg range, then we may have some problems, as the latest RAP does attempt to push us into that range, VIA sbcapes. This is based on surface dew pts around 70 degrees with surface temps rising into the low to mid 70s. Have been agonizing with a flood watch decision, as round 2 with the location of the deformation this evening/tonight is still uncertain, and latest trends suggest heavy rainfall and more vigorous rainfall rates will be southeast of the area. This seems reasonable based on the latest water vapor imagery which shows strong upper wave back near Kansas city, with another upper wave dropping southeast through southern Minnesota, and these features/digging trough axis should help focus heavy showers and thunderstorms along the southern Ohio Valley, as good 850 MB Theta-E ridge (sw-ne orientated) lines up down there later today/this evening and gets into northern Ohio, making for a real close call, before the forcing/PV advection slides east Saturday morning. For us....Expectations are for total rainfall of 1-3 inches in and around the I-94 corridor, which will likely cause some urban and small stream type flooding. North of M-59, no significant rainfall is anticipated. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 AVIATION... A stalled front will extend across northern Indiana and Ohio today. An upper level wave will lift into Se Mi later today and drive a region of rain north of the front and into metro Detroit. The lead edge of the mid level forcing and moist plume has already driven showers into metro Detroit. They will become more widespread and persistent this afternoon as the large scale ascent increases. The lead edge of the showers will trend northward late this morning and afternoon, possibly making it to FNT by early/mid afternoon. Rain chances then decrease markedly toward MBS. Persistent rain and low level moisture advection will support steadily lowering ceiling heights during the morning and afternoon, especially south of FNT. For DTW...While showers will be widespread across the airspace today and tonight, the better instability reservoir and thus better thunderstorm chances will be south of the Mi/Oh state line. The degree of boundary layer moistening today will support predominate MVFR based ceilings. Nocturnal cooling this evening is however expected to result in the development of more predominate IFR conditions. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for ceiling 5000 ft or less today and tonight. * Low for thunderstorms today and tonight. PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 402 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 DISCUSSION... Today into tonight will be wet and seasonably cool for the southern half of the forecast area. Stalled front lies just south of the border early this morning as high pressure remains centered over northern lower Michigan. The front will edge northward slightly today into the southern counties as a mid level trough over the western Great Lakes sharpens slightly as it slowly swings through the area. Showers will increase in coverage today as fgen increases combined with right entrance region of upper jet, advancing wave and overriding of the front. Main threat today into tonight will be pockets of heavy rain (refer to hydro section) as deep moisture with pws around 1.8 inches will remain until trough axis swings through late tonight. Thunderstorm activity will be limited as surface instability north of the front will be very little and mid level lapse rates poor due to deep moisture. Best location for thunderstorms will be along and south of the surface front mainly down in the corner 4 counties. Looks as though shower activity will make it to about the I69 corridor with a fair amount of sunshine north into the Saginaw Valley and Thumb where drier air and subsidence will reside. This will allow temperatures there to climb into the mid 70s while the rest of the area will reach only the low 70s with cooler easterly flow and showers. Exception is mid to upper 70s near the Ohio Border where this area will make it into the warm sector behind the front. Showers and thunderstorms will slowly end from west to east by Saturday morning as the whole system pushes to the east. High pressure to the north will expand across the western Great Lakes over the weekend bringing dry conditions and clearer skies that will likely last through mid next week. Temperatures will also moderate back into the 80s starting Sunday. MARINE... Lighter winds expected today, with gusts topping out around 15 kts in a northeasterly flow regime. The main focus through tonight will be heavy rain potential across the southern marine zones as low pressure advances eastward along a stalled frontal boundary currently situated over the Ohio Valley. Rain chances begin to diminish by Saturday morning, although an uptick in wind gusts to 15- 20 kts will occur through the afternoon hours in response to a tightened pressure gradient on the back side of the low. These higher end gusts to 20 kts will likely be felt across Saginaw Bay as the northeasterly component of the flow aligns with its longer fetch. Light sustained winds of 5-10 kts will keep wave heights at bay through the weekend despite the prolonged onshore flow. High pressure to then build into the region Sunday, with drier conditions and northerly flow continuing through the early work week. HYDROLOGY... Numerous showers and possible thunderstorms will occur today into tonight, mainly along and south of I69. Showers will be light to moderate with pockets of heavy showers or thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts through Saturday morning will likely range from a tenth along the I69 corridor to about a half an inch along the M59 corridor. The heaviest rainfall amounts are expected south of the M59 corridor where up to 2 inches will be possible with even higher amounts if training of the heaviest showers occurs. Though this will be over about a 24 hr period, rainfall intensity in some of the showers or thunderstorms could cause urban and small stream flooding. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. Lake Huron...NONE. Lake St Clair...NONE. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...NONE. && UPDATE.......sf AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...DRC MARINE.......MV HYDROLOGY....DRC You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 434 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-170845- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- 434 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No significant weather expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-170845- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 434 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No significant weather expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-170845- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 434 AM EDT Fri Jul 16 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Occasional showers and thunderstorms are expected today and tonight. Thunderstorms are not expected to be severe but some storms could produce wind gusts to 40mph and heavy rainfall that may lead to minor flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday No significant weather expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. DRC
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
State Police and MDOT reported flooding on both lanes of I-94 and I-75. MODT also reported flooding across all lanes in both directions of M-39, and some of the lanes of SB I-75 after 7 mile, and EB I-96 at Grand River. Finally, some flooding observed on SB lanes of M-10 at M-8.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 974690.