A weak wave progressing over the Great Lakes helped support convective initiation in the open warm sector across northern Michigan during the afternoon. A few of these storms produced damaging wind gusts across parts of the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A weak wave progressing over the Great Lakes helped support convective initiation in the open warm sector across northern Michigan during the afternoon. A few of these storms produced damaging wind gusts across parts of the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 9, 9:41 AM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1041 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1024 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Shortwave trough working its way slowly east across Wisconsin this morning. Brief surge of mid level dry air out ahead of this system is now exiting off to the north, with sustained deep moisture advection into northern Michigan. Primary focus for showers and thunderstorms remains upstream closer to main wave. Deep moist advection and subtle lead wave are kicking off a few light showers, especially across western sections of the area. Expect shower and storm coverage to only increase with time this afternoon as moisture advection continues and deep layer support increases with approach of that upstream wave. While increasing mixed layer cape values in excess of 1K joules/kg does support some stronger storm potential, effective shear values largely under 20 knots sure argues otherwise. Latest SPC day one convective outlook continues to place nearly all of our area in a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon and evening. Definitely wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated severe storm later this afternoon/early evening when cape values are maximized, with marginally gusty winds the primary concern via precip-loaded cores and wet microburst potential. Other issue is potential for heavy rain with such deep moisture in-place. Individual cells should remain transient. However, if cell training is realized, could definitely see some localized areas exceed an inch of rain by early this evening. && .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 Impactful weather: Warm and humid with better total coverage of showers and thunderstorms today into tonight. Severe storms are largely not expected, but one or two storms may be able to produce some decent hail and fairly gusty and erratic winds. Pattern synopsis and forecast: A slightly more amplified wavy upper air pattern early this morning, with one shortwave rotating in WI, working it's way toward nrn Michigan, while another wave was spinning over MT. At the sfc, a warm front has pushed north through nrn Michigan, with very humid air in place, as sfc dew points were in the upper half of the 60s and lower 70s, with PWATs 1.50" to 1.75", and climbing, ahead of the shortwave. Convection has waned over the last several hours, as MUCAPES/instability has diminished to well under 1000j/kg, with a lack of a focusing mechanism (front). We do have some periodic ejected weak vorticity maxima, but most all of the any renewed convection was well back into WI, directly associated with the shortwave. Additional convection continues ahead of the upstream MT shortwave, but this is not going to figure into anything regarding our weather through tonight. Another very similar day to the last few days is anticipated, although we will have a more defined upper wave traversing nrn Michigan through the day and tonight. While any convective activity is expected to remain fairly quiet heading through daybreak, we do get into some of that better DPVA/vorticity maxima by late morning into this afternoon, as the upper wave drifts through the western Great Lakes. This is going to lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms today compared to the last few days, but 0-6km effective bulk shear will remain 25kts or lower through tonight, and ML/MUCAPES may be slightly higher, in the several hundred to as much as 1250j/kg range, as diurnal heating progresses this afternoon. Still not really expecting much in the way of severe weather in this environment, but maybe one or two storms may be able to become strong enough for decent hail and fairly gusty and erratic winds. A marginal risk for severe storms has been put out for most all of nrn Michigan, but confidence is low for any truly severe storms. Convection will slowly drift eastward through the overnight hours, and the general trend will be for weakening/diminishing storms with time, due to to loss of heating and lowering overall instability. A better threat may actually be localized flooding, where a few cells would have to track over the same area for a few hours. The best chance of this will be for portions of far NE lower and a smaller portion of far NW lower, where better precipitation coverage is expected, and where 3hr FFG guidance is in the 1-50" to 2.50" range. Again, not really confident in flooding, more so ponding of water on area roadways. High temperatures will be in the 81F to 87F range for most areas, with very mild lows again tonight in the upper half of the 60s and low 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 ...Shower and thunderstorm chances through midweek... High Impact Weather Potential: A few severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday evening Pattern Synopsis: A weak upper-level disturbance will be vacating the Great Lakes to the east Tuesday morning as a much stronger shortwave treks across the northern Great Plains. This wave will make it into the arrowhead of Minnesota/far northern Lake Superior by Tuesday evening as it punches NE towards Hudson Bay. Favorable forcing aloft will drive surface pressure falls across the region into Wednesday. A warm front is expected to advance northward through the CWA Tuesday evening/overnight. Forecast/Details: A difficult convective forecast is in store for northern Michigan Tuesday night with the million dollar question being storm initiation and coverage during that time period. Very strong instability in the realm of 3,000 J/kg MUCAPE will be in place Tuesday evening/night due to steep mid-level lapse rates from an elevated mixed layer. However, this EML will help cap the environment across the region and may greatly limit or even prevent convective initiation later Tuesday given weak near-surface forcing and upper-level ascent displaced much further north away from the most favorable instability axis. This is backed by a general lack of CI/QPF evidenced across the high-res model guidance suite. That being said, any storms that do form across the region Tuesday night will have the chance of becoming severe given strong instability and 850mb/700mb winds around 30 kts aiding large hail and damaging wind gusts. Current thoughts are that storm coverage will be greatly limited across northern Michigan Tuesday night, but confidence in thunderstorm potential will increase in future forecast issuances. The better chance for severe storms may come Wednesday evening/night as a hot, moist airmass still resides over the region but better shear moves overhead as the trough sags southward across the Great Lakes. Confidence in storm coverage is also higher during this time with the potential for better forcing in place. Large hail and damaging wind gusts would once again be the primary threats with any strong storms. As alluded to above, high dewpoints in the low 70s combined with air temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will create heat indices that approach the mid 90s in some areas across northern Michigan. This will make for unpleasant conditions for strenuous outdoor activities and should be taken into consideration for mid- week plans. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now An amplified longwave trough over central Canada will work its way eastward across the continent heading into the weekend as strong ridging holds across the western CONUS. Subsidence aloft will help build surface high pressure across the northern CONUS, eventually working its way into the Great Lakes Saturday/Sunday. While timing will likely change, a front looks to sweep across the region in the Thursday/Thursday night timeframe. While yet another round of showers and storms would be possible with this frontal passage, this will help mute precip chances heading into the weekend as a cooler, drier airmass moves into northern Michigan. After a hot and humid week, high temperatures look to dip back down into the upper 70s for most over the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 700 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 A weak area of low pressure will pull a warm front with deeper moisture into the region through today and into tonight, resulting in better overall coverage of expected showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms are mostly not expected, but one or two storms around northern Michigan may be able to produce decent hail and fairly gusty and erratic winds, along with locally heavy rainfall totals and reductions in VSBY. Showers and storms are likely to slowly work eastward through tonight, while MVFR/possible IFR CIGS develop in their wake. The pressure gradient has tightened, resulting in some lower end southerly LLWS overhead, which will end shortly after daybreak. this may also lead to slightly gusty winds at times today. && .MARINE... Issued at 411 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 A weak area of low pressure will pull a warm front with deeper moisture into the region by later today and through tonight, resulting in better overall coverage of expected showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms are mostly not expected, but one or two storms around northern Michigan may be able to produce some decent hail and fairly gusty and erratic winds. The front is likely to linger around the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will bring back additional chances for showers and storms, mainly Tuesday night, where a few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds are possible. The neutral to slightly stable overlake conditions will keep winds largely under advisory criteria today into this evening. Lighter and more variable winds are anticipated Tuesday into Tuesday night. Gusty and erratic winds are however, always possible in and around thunderstorms. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && UPDATE...MB NEAR TERM...SMD SHORT TERM...DJC LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...SMD MARINE...SMD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1043 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-101200- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 1043 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across northern Michigan this afternoon and tonight. While the chance for severe storms is rather small, a few storms may be able to produce some decent hail and fairly gusty erratic winds. Locally heavy rainfall totals are possible, mainly in northern lower Michigan. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There will be additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Wednesday night. There is a chance for a few storms to be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-101200- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 1043 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Through tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across northern Michigan this afternoon and tonight. While the chance for severe storms is rather small, a few storms may be able to produce some decent hail and fairly gusty erratic winds this afternoon and early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There will be additional thunderstorm chances Tuesday through Wednesday night. There is a chance for a few storms to be severe, with damaging winds and large hail being the primary threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 89 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:59 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Tree and utility line damage reported by Gladwin county EM.
Approximately 15-20 trees blown down or significantly damaged. Three falling trees damaged a house, garage, and shed. Utility lines and an underground gas line were also damaged.
Delayed report from mping.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 981582, 981591, 981595.