Tornado and Damaging Winds in Michigan, August 11, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
215 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Busy morning with the mop up from last night's convection, and
preparing for this afternoon's convection.

The main concern will be the initial convection, as several of the
models (mainly CAMs)show that there will be an early bout of
convection that spike up in the heat of the day, sometime after
18z, and by the way we are one of several offices sending up a
special balloon for 18z. The MLCAPEs at 18z around 2100 J/kg on
the GFS and sfc-6km shear of 48 knots, will be expecting storms to
kick off. The cold front itself, may kick off more storms to
watch, currently in W Upper/NW Wisconsin, early in the evening,
but think that the first round will be the main severe storm
round. So the timing will between 2pm and midnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Impactful weather: One more day of showers and thunderstorms. The
thunderstorms are expected to pack a bigger punch this go around.
There is an enhanced severe threat for much of nrn lower, with just
a marginal threat across eastern upper Michigan. The primary threats
will be for damaging winds and large hail, and a tornado or two is
not out of the question for areas south of M-32 in nrn lower.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

An even more amplified upper air pattern early this morning, as a
strong well defined shortwave trough is digging SE through the nrn
Plains and SC Canada, while upper ridging was seen on both coasts of
the country. A weaker shortwave, yet closed off circulation was
still rotating NE through nrn lower Michiagn attm, with some
residual DPVA and deformation on it's N/NW flank, resulting in
decaying light showers. Most of the instability is gone, with no
further thunderstorms over the last hour or so, but a strike or two
can still occur, with instability still in the several hundred to
around 1000j/kg, but diminishing. The upstream well defined
shortwave is not making ant headlines attm, as it is not working
with much instability or deeper moisture. There were a couple of
bands of showers however, but no thunderstorms. Still very muggy in
nrn Michigan, with warm/mild temperatures and sfc dew points largely
in the in upper half of the 60s.

Remnant scattered light showers will continue to work eastward and
out of the region heading through daybreak, while the pressure
gradient tightens in advance of the approaching more defined upper
level shortwave from srn Canada. May see some gusty SW winds develop
by late morning into the afternoon hours, while the air mass remains
very moist and increasingly unstable cruising through daytime/diurnal
heating. The increasing confluent/convergent low level flow
associated with a cold front associated with the upper wave, will
combine with some deep layer forcing (although weakening as the
entire wave tries to shallow out some), to spark off additional
showers and thunderstorms, maybe even some isolated activity as
early as early/mid afternoon. The main show will be during the later
afternoon and especially this evening, as the cold front comes
closer to nrn Michigan. Peak heating and increased low to mid level
flow will result in LLJ/theta-e convergence ramping up, along with
ML/MUCAPES climbing into the 1200-2200j/kg range, while 0-6km
effective bulk shear increases (finally) to 35 to 40kts. Both of
these parameters are larger than the last several days, suggesting a
much better effort toward storm organization/initial supercells then
MCS/possible QLCS type convective evolution, and ultimately
increased severe weather potential. Wet-bulb zero heights do come
down due to lowering mid level heights from the incoming shortwave,
but most of the instability/CAPE is not focused more so in that hail
growth zone.

Overall thought here, is for the potential for isolated discrete
cells/supercells by mid afternoon out ahead of the main swath of
showers and storms that fire along/just ahead of the cold font (no
apparent capping in place while diurnal heating is progressing).
These discrete cells may be able to spawn a tornado or two, which
may morph into bowing segments and some QLCS type convective
evolution, which would continue some tornado/mainly damaging wind
threat through the evening. The tornado threat also being suggested
by increase 0-3km helicities of greater than 200 m2/s2 this
afternoon into the evening. The primary threat will be damaging
winds, to a slightly lesser extent large hail, and then the one or
two tornados potentially out there. The best chance for seeing
severe storms, will be in nrn lower, and especially along and south
of M-32, where the greatest risk will reside (enhanced), and where a
tornado has the best chance of developing. Pretty much all of the
convection is expected to exit east of the region by daybreak
Thursday.

Once the convection plows through, skies are actually expected to
clear/partially clear, as drier air sweeps into nrn Michigan.

Primary severe threat will be for damaging winds and large hail, and
a couple of tornados are not out of the question in portions of nrn
lower, mainly along/south of M-32.

High temperatures will largely be in the 80F to 86F range again for
most areas, with very mild lows again pretty deep into the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Still monitoring severe storm potential for tonight...

High impact weather potential: Much of the area remains in a slight
risk for severe thunderstorms tonight. "IF" storms do develop, some
will be capable of producing damaging winds and large hail.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Fast paced and energetic pattern continues across the northern Conus
and Great Lakes region. Last nights rain producing shortwave trough
exiting into Georgian Bay, with shortwave ridge axis following in
its wake...build right across northern Michigan this afternoon. Next
wave of interest slicing east/northeast into far western Ontario and
northern Minnesota, with its attendant surface reflection running a
bit to the north of main mid level impulse. Post wave subsidence and
introduction of rising mid level heights has largely ended the
showers from earlier, with even the overcast from earlier scouring
out as low level mixing increases.

All eyes directed on "what" should occur upstream late this
afternoon and early evening, with strong instability gradient and
mid level lapse plume overtopped by development of weakish low level
jet. Expect deep convection to fire along this gradient (active
weather needs gradients), with at least some convective allowing
guidance lockstep with conceptual models that this initiation will
occur across southwest Wisconsin/northeast Iowa...with this
convection than following best gradients southeast into southwest
lower Michigan and points southwest with time tonight. However,
still plenty of instability to be had further north closer to
primary mid level support, with at least some evidence this area too
may see convective initiation this evening...with this activity
having much more favorable propagation vectors to reach our area
later tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Main focus remains centered on potential for shower and
thunderstorms again tonight. Thunderstorm intensity and potential
for localized areas of heavy rain will also need to be addressed.

Details:

As they usually are up in this neck of the woods, another exceedingly
difficult convective forecast tonight. Now, with that said...and
given to what was talked about above...do believe the most organized
storms and best severe weather potential will remain to our
southwest tonight as expected southwest Wisconsin convection follows
axis of greatest instability gradient (that whole gradient thing
again). However, also feel additional may indeed fire further north,
with these storms riding northern extent of instability plume and
elevated lapse rates east into our area overnight (albeit both
steadily decaying with time). Will definitely keep just chancy type
wording for now. Southwest third of the area remains under slight
risk wording for severe weather, with marginal risk wording
elsewhere. Do think any severe storms will be the exception rather
than the rule, with gusty winds and large hail being the primary
severe weather concern.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

Friday night through Tuesday:

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

A pleasant weekend expected as large area of Canadian originated
high pressure works its way slowly across the region. This will
bring near to a bit above normal temperatures, but more importantly,
much drier conditions under what should be mostly clear/sunny skies.
Surface high pressure looks to remain in control of our weather
right into the beginning of next work week...increasingly supported
by building of mid/upper level ridge axis across the northern Great
Lakes into southern Canada. Will continue the dry theme set forth
this upcoming weekend. Simple airmass modification and some
semblance of weak return flow supports highs averaging a few degrees
above long term normals....with readings generally in the lower 80s
both Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

At the moment, a deck of stratocu has been spreading across the
forecast area. However, showers are beginning to percolate with
some beginning to have lightning with them. There is a back edge
to the stratocu, and VFR conditions for the CIGs are expected
again, until the main area of thunderstorms gets going over the
region. The timing for the thunderstorm line looks to be between
20z to 03z today, with CIGs and VSBYs will lower to MVFR at times
as the showers and thunderstorms pass through the region. With the
ENHANCED risk today winds are the main threat, with Hail second,
and tornadoes third.

 AFter the storms finish, probably sometime between 03z and 05z
tonight, the sky will generally clear, and with the drying
expected behind the cold front, CIGs and VSBYs should pop back to
VFR, and remain that way through 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

A cold front will cross nrn Michigan late this afternoon and mainly
through this evening into the overnight hours. A very warm and humid
air mass will remain in place, with the pressure gradient tightening
up enough ahead of the front, to result in possible low end advisory
SW wind gusts for mainly Lake Michigan (despite slightly stable
overlake conditions). A few strong showers and thunderstorms are
possible as early as mid afternoon, but will more so be common this
evening into the overnight hours with the front. Severe storms are
more than possible, rather some expected. The primary threats will
be for damaging winds and to a slightly lesser extent, large hail.
Most all of this convection will have departed Lake Michigan and
Whitefish Bay/St. Mary's during the overnight hours, and by daybreak
Thursday for Lake Huron nearshore waters. Drier air filters in and
there will be a much lesser chance for any additional convection
Thursday and Thursday night. There will be another chance for some
sporadic low end, and more westerly, advisory gusts however.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-
     342-344.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ345-346.
LS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JL
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1127 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-121530-
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-
Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix-
1127 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and
Northern Lower Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and tonight. Some storms are expected to be severe, mainly from
mid to late afternoon through midnight, and more so in northern
lower Michigan. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats, and to a lesser degree, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord

Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-121530-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-
1127 AM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan
nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and tonight. Some storms are expected to be severe, mainly from mid
to late afternoon through midnight across much of Lakes Michigan
and Huron. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online:   weather.gov/gaylord

Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter:  twitter.com/nwsgaylord

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1159 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALGER                   44.12N 84.12W
08/11/2021                   ARENAC             MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DELAYED REPORT. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES
            DOWN THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY. ROOF BLOWN OFF OF A BARN AS
            WELL.

&&

TIM.LOCKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1158 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW GAYLORD           45.02N 84.68W
08/10/2021  M54 MPH          OTSEGO             MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KGLR GAYLORD - OTSEGO COUNTY
            AIRPORT.

0453 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SSW GAYLORD           45.02N 84.68W
08/11/2021  M1.05 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KGLR GAYLORD - OTSEGO COUNTY
            AIRPORT.

0548 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NW WATERS             44.91N 84.72W
08/11/2021  M1.68 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION DW5664 GAYLORDNWS; GAYLORD.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NNE OTSEGO LAKE STATE 44.96N 84.68W
08/11/2021  M1.23 INCH       OTSEGO             MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-OT-17 GAYLORD 4.1 S.

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PRESCOTT                44.19N 83.93W
08/11/2021                   OGEMAW             MI   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
            SKIDWAY/PRESCOTT AREA OF COUNTY.

1200 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 W VOGEL CENTER        44.19N 85.13W
08/11/2021  M49 MPH          MISSAUKEE          MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MIMCB 3.7 W VOGEL CENTER
            (MAWN).

1014 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E PARKDALE            44.27N 86.25W
08/10/2021  M46 MPH          MANISTEE           MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KMBL MANISTEE - BLACKER
            AIRPORT.

1017 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EMPIRE                  44.81N 86.06W
08/10/2021                   LEELANAU           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN COUNTYWIDE BETWEEN
            APPROXIMATELY 1017 PM AND 1040 PM.

1045 PM     HAIL             2 SW GREILICKVILLE      44.78N 85.68W
08/10/2021  E0.75 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FROM TV 7/4.

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NE BINGHAM            44.88N 85.68W
08/10/2021  M59 MPH          LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MINWM 0.8 NE BINGHAM (MAWN).

1220 AM     FLASH FLOOD      EMPIRE                  44.81N 86.06W
08/11/2021                   LEELANAU           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER UP TO 6 INCHES DEEP FLOWING OVER SOME
            ROADS AROUND EMPIRE.

1221 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 WSW FOUCH             44.81N 85.76W
08/11/2021                   LEELANAU           MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER RUSHING OVER THE ROAD ROUGHLY 6 INCHES
            DEEP AT THE INTERSECTION OF GALLIVAN AND
            ALPINE ROADS. FROM TV 7/4.

0545 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SUTTONS BAY             44.98N 85.65W
08/11/2021  M1.45 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW1418 SUTTONS BAY.

0548 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S SUTTONS BAY         44.96N 85.65W
08/11/2021  M1.80 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION FW9533 SUTTONS BAY.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W OMENA               45.06N 85.65W
08/11/2021  M2.13 INCH       LEELANAU           MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-LL-1 NORTHPORT 5.0 SSW.

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KALKASKA                44.73N 85.18W
08/10/2021                   KALKASKA           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE OVER
            NORTHERN HALF OF COUNTY BETWEEN
            APPROXIMATELY 1055 PM AND 1125 PM.

1037 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW TRAVERSE CITY      44.72N 85.65W
08/10/2021                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN ACROSS HARTMAN ROAD NEAR US-31.
            FROM TV 7/4.

1040 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRAVERSE CITY           44.75N 85.60W
08/10/2021                   GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   911 CALL CENTER

            WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE
            COUNTYWIDE BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 1030 PM AND
            1100 PM.

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N BATES               44.82N 85.44W
08/10/2021  M58 MPH          GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MIWMT WILLIAMSBURG.

1100 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SE TRAVERSE CITY      44.73N 85.57W
08/10/2021  M49 MPH          GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KTVC TRAVERSE CITY - CHERRY
            CAPITAL AIRPORT.

0453 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE TRAVERSE CITY      44.73N 85.57W
08/11/2021  M1.64 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KTVC TRAVERSE CITY - CHERRY
            CAPITAL AIRPORT.

0611 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW TRAVERSE CITY     44.76N 85.64W
08/11/2021  M2.15 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION TCMM4 TRAVERSE CITY
            MUNSON.

0645 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE KINGSLEY          44.60N 85.48W
08/11/2021  M1.11 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-21 KINGSLEY 2.7 ENE.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW BATES             44.75N 85.52W
08/11/2021  M2.06 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-1 TRAVERSE CITY 4.1
            E.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 WSW BATES             44.73N 85.51W
08/11/2021  M1.93 INCH       GRAND TRAVERSE     MI   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION TCEM4 TRAVERSE CITY
            4.7 ESE.

1130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     FREDERIC                44.79N 84.73W
08/10/2021                   CRAWFORD           MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

0412 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW HARTWICK PINES ST 44.72N 84.71W
08/11/2021  M1.00 INCH       CRAWFORD           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION GYGM4 GRAYLING.

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE ELBERTA           44.63N 86.20W
08/10/2021  M46 MPH          BENZIE             MI   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KFKS FRANKFORT - DOW MEMORIAL
            FIELD.

1027 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAKE ANN                44.73N 85.84W
08/10/2021                   BENZIE             MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN.

0508 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 S EMPIRE              44.76N 86.06W
08/11/2021  M1.79 INCH       BENZIE             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION SBDM4 BEAR.

0501 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW ALGER             44.13N 84.12W
08/11/2021  M1.36 INCH       ARENAC             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION AGRM4 ALGER.

0100 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE ALDEN             44.90N 85.21W
08/11/2021                   ANTRIM             MI   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            *** 1 INJ ***
            ALDEN HIGHWAY COMPLETELY WASHED OUT NEAR
            COMFORT RD. TWO VEHICLES FELL INTO ROAD WASH
            OUT CAUSING INJURY TO 1 PERSON. MULTIPLE
            OTHER ROAD SECTIONS HAVE BEEN WASHED
            THROUGHOUT COUNTY.

0132 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S BELLAIRE            44.93N 85.21W
08/11/2021                   ANTRIM             MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER OVER M-88 IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       BELLAIRE                44.98N 85.21W
08/11/2021  M4.60 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            12 HOUR TOTAL. MOST RAIN FELL WITHIN A 2 TO
            3 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MANCELONA               44.90N 85.06W
08/11/2021  M3.10 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            12 HOUR TOTAL. MOST RAIN FELL WITHIN A 2 TO
            3 HOUR PERIOD DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
            OF 8/10/21.

1230 AM     TSTM WND GST     11 NW WILDERNESS STATE  45.84N 85.14W
08/11/2021  M52 MPH          LMZ362             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WSLM4 13 SSW BREVORT.

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW FRANKFORT          44.63N 86.25W
08/10/2021  M58 MPH          LMZ346             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION XFLT FRANKFORT LIGHT.

0220 AM     TSTM WND GST     46 ESE OSCODA           44.28N 82.42W
08/11/2021  M49 MPH          LHZ363             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 45008 27 NE PORT HOPE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
155 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SSW LAKE BELLAIRE     44.93N 85.25W
08/11/2021  M5.71 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 SE CENTRAL LAKE       45.06N 85.25W
08/11/2021  M3.50 INCH       ANTRIM             MI   EMERGENCY MNGR

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
259 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

MIZ095-111930-
Western Mackinac MI-
259 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Mackinac County through 330 PM EDT...

At 258 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gilchrist, or 13 miles south of Newberry, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Western Mackinac County, including the following locations...
Garfield Township.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4600 8511 4601 8516 4601 8523 4605 8533
      4604 8538 4605 8541 4604 8544 4605 8550
      4623 8556 4625 8527 4625 8511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 258DEG 72KT 4616 8542

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
318 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

MIZ086>088-095>097-112000-
Western Chippewa MI-Southeast Chippewa MI-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island MI-Eastern Mackinac MI-
Western Mackinac MI-Central Chippewa MI-
318 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Chippewa and
central Mackinac Counties through 400 PM EDT...

At 317 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bay Mills to near Epoufette. Movement was
east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Sault Ste. Marie and Dafter around 325 PM EDT.
  Moran and Allenville around 335 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Evergreen Shores,
Cedarville and Hessel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4653 8412 4641 8415 4619 8407 4607 8414
      4592 8448 4594 8449 4591 8456 4592 8467
      4588 8457 4581 8473 4592 8497 4598 8505
      4601 8518 4608 8535 4648 8458 4645 8447
      4651 8438 4649 8427 4653 8421
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 286DEG 55KT 4647 8450 4611 8518

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH