A warm front was lifting north of the state during the afternoon of the 19th, with high pressure located east of the state. The result was warm and moist return southeast flow across the state.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A warm front was lifting north of the state during the afternoon of the 19th, with high pressure located east of the state. The result was warm and moist return southeast flow across the state. Showers and thunderstorms developed just east of the state in the higher terrain by mid-afternoon, and gained enough strength that they were able to push northwest and over the mountains into southeast Kentucky. The strongest storm in this line/cluster moved in Harlan County, resulting in a strong wind gust that knocked down a tree. The line of storms continue to progress northwestward through eastern Kentucky during the early evening hours, eventually losing strength.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 3:37 PM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 437 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2021 Latest analysis shows a frontal boundary to our north across central OH/IN, surface high pressure over eastern Canada, and another frontal boundary stretching from central Canada down through the northern plains. At the upper levels, there is general ridging over the eastern US and Canada, an upper level low over the deep south and a trough over the NW US. As we move through the overnight and into tomorrow, several pieces of energy will advect north from the upper low in the deep south towards the upper Great Lakes, while the front to our north is expected to wash out by later this evening. A surface low along the front in the northern plains will slowly drift E/NE overnight and through Monday, with a cold front dragging behind which will approach portions of the OH valley by Tuesday morning as the trough in the NW US advances east and reaches the northern plains by Tuesday morning. The surface high currently over eastern Canada will settle over New England on Monday before advancing to the Canadian Maritimes overnight into Tuesday morning. Locally, moisture continues to advect into the area from the south, although the highest PWAT's continue to be west of the area, and that will be the focus for the highest rainfall totals over the next day or so. PWAT values over the western half of the forecast area will still increase to around 1.6 inches this afternoon into evening, and this is where the highest Pops will be, although scattered showers/storms are possible just about anywhere in eastern KY. Monday for the most part will be a repeat of today, with the highest Pops along and west of I-75 but slight chances of showers/storms will continue across the entire area. As whats left of the upper low in the deep south slowly moves east and the trough across the northern plains moves east, the main precip axis will shift further east overnight into Tuesday morning. Temps will be mild this evening with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Despite the mid and high clouds remaining over the area, some patchy river valley fog is likely to form in the typical locations. High temps on Monday will be in the upper 70s across the western half of the area where higher chances of rain are, to lower 80s across far eastern KY where there's a better chance of some areas staying dry for most of the day. Low temps Monday night will be a bit cooler but still above normal, ranging from the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 437 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2021 Mild late September weather will linger through Tuesday. Thereafter, fall chill arrives with an aptly-timed seasonably strong cold front on Wednesday -- the first day of Autumn 2021. A soaking rainfall is expected to accompany the frontal passage while cool weather follows for the remainder of the week. Model agreement is good to fair with regard to the upper levels through about Thursday. The latest 12z model suites shows an upper level trough, currently over the Northern Rockies, shifting eastward to over the Mississippi Valley and closing off into a cutoff of low by early Wednesday morning. This low will further deepen as it drifts east to northeast across the Ohio or Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and Wednesday night before turning northward toward the Great Lakes on Thursday. At the surface, the aforementioned trough will be preceded by a cold front, our primary forecast problem during extended period. At this point the models are still struggling to pin down the timing of the cold front, the resulting interaction with moisture from the remnants of Nicholas, and anticipated cyclogenesis along the boundary. Past model runs had been trending more progressive the boundary, yet the 12z runs of the GFS and ECMWF have slowed the front considerably. To further complicate matters, the front could stall as it presses up against the Appalachians while a wave of low pressure develops and rides along the boundary. This could favor a swath of heavy rainfall in close proximity to the track of the surface low. For the time being, the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian and the ensembles suggest that heaviest rainfall will occur mostly north and east of our forecast area. However, the NAM12 solution is notably further south with the cyclogenesis over the southern and central Appalachians -- a potentially wetter situation for eastern Kentucky. The forecast remains aligned with the majority model/ensemble solution but later shifts will need to monitor any definitive trends toward a heavier rainfall event for eastern Kentucky. Another trough and cold front may follow for next weekend but the models are offering widely varying solutions. 12z Tuesday -- 12z Thursday... Shower activity may diminish for a time Tuesday morning diminishing. Otherwise, look for plentiful cloud cover and limited sunshine during the afternoon as PWATs increase to between 1.6 and 1.8 inches. A resurgence in the shower and storm activity is expected during the afternoon, but the more widespread rainfall should hold off until Tuesday night and Wednesday when the front/ potential wave of low pressure pass through the region. Given the high PWATs (in excess of the 90th percentile relative to climo), a marginally deep warm layer, and a weak skinny CAPE profile, conditions will be favorable for heavy rainfall on Tuesday into Wednesday. The current forecast calls for a widespread 1-2 inches from 12z Tuesday through 00z Thursday, but locally higher amounts are probable if cell training occurs. Temperatures on Tuesday remain quite mild, reaching into the mid 70s to near 80. On Wednesday, the cold front will lead to a non- diurnal temperature trend as temperatures hold steady or rise slightly in the morning before falling slowly. The steadier rainfall is expected to taper off by early to mid Wednesday evening, leaving behind spotty light showers and a raw northwest breeze for Wednesday night. Temperatures should fall back into the mid 40s to lower 50s over night amidst ongoing CAA. 12z Thursday -- Sunday... The coolest air of the season thus far will be overhead by Thursday morning as 850 mb temps drop back into the 3-5C range. The cold NW upslope flow and plentiful moisture in the 925-850 mb layer should result in stratus or broken strato-cu lingering for much of day. Temperatures will be well below normal, struggling to warm much above the lower 60s in most valley locations and likely remaining in the 50s over the higher ridges. Temperatures could be touch warmer west of I-75 where slightly drier air will allow for greater amounts of sunshine. Clearing should finally arrive Thursday evening and night as the air mass finally dries out and heights rise. Plentiful sunshine is expected to round out our week on Friday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another cold front drops toward the Ohio Valley next weekend. At this point, the system looks to be mostly dry and weak but may bring a reinforcing shot of cooler air. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2021 Still some lingering SCT MVFR ceilings near SME but otherwise VFR to start the 18Z TAF period. SCT convection possible this afternoon which may result in brief flight restrictions. Winds will be E/SE around 5 kts or less. High clouds will remain overnight but some patchy valley fog is still expected to develop overnight towards Monday morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 344 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-202245- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 344 PM EDT Sun Sep 19 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance of thunderstorms at times Monday through Wednesday. A cold front approaches on Tuesday and crosses eastern Kentucky late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Some storms ahead and along the cold front could produce locally heavy rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. CMF/GEERTSON
The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 73 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:52 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was reported having been knocked down by a strong thunderstorm wind gust near the intersection of Upper Elcomb Drive and Farley Street in the community of Elcomb near Harlan.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987354.