A nearly stationary corridor of thunderstorms developed from central Kentucky to northwest Tennessee, including Christian and Todd Counties. These storms resulted in excessive rainfall amounts over places that received heavy rain during the early morning severe storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A nearly stationary corridor of thunderstorms developed from central Kentucky to northwest Tennessee, including Christian and Todd Counties. These storms resulted in excessive rainfall amounts over places that received heavy rain during the early morning severe storms. The storms occurred in a narrow axis of instability along a southeastward moving cold front.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 4, 5:37 PM CST, 1 hour 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Updated for 00Z aviation forecast discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 Starting to get a few healthy showers going along the cold front over the Pennyrile from Providence toward Calhoun. The latest HRRR is not indicating anything terribly robust, but does have some scattered cells along and ahead of the front through 01Z when it should be through the entire region. Individual cells should move east and it may be a struggle to get lightning, let alone severe. We will keep an eye on it. More widespread showers and possibly a few brief storms are expected to spread east across the region as the upper trough moves through this evening. Most of this activity should be done by 06Z. Wednesday will be dry, but the models continue to bring a swath of QPF southeast through the region with another upper impulse Thursday afternoon. The instability signal seems to be increasing, so we will maintain the small chances of thunderstorms as well. This activity should be east of the region by or shortly after 00Z Friday, and Thursday night should be dry throughout the region. Once the cold front passes this afternoon/evening, temperatures will be below normal through the short term period. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 A full latitude trough will be centered to our east Friday, but an impulse diving down its backside could bring a few showers through the EVV Tri State through the day. It would be very scant QPF, and the NBM has not caught on to it, but it does show up in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, so we will need to keep an eye on this possibility. Warm advection showers will begin to lift north across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois late Friday night and then blossom over northern and western portions of the area Saturday. There is no consensus on whether it will push north of the area Saturday night allowing us to dry out a bit, but we will keep PoPs through the period. West Kentucky will definitely be the driest Saturday and Saturday night. The models begin to diverge Sunday into next week, but there is a decent signal that an upper-level disturbance will push eastward across the region Sunday into Sunday night. How strong it will be and how effective it will be in drying us out is in question. We will have healthy PoPs Sunday and Sunday night, but will also keep chance PoPs going Monday and Tuesday just in case the front stalls out not far south of the region, as in the GFS. && .AVIATION... Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 MVFR ceilings are commonplace across most of the terminals at the time of this writing. Scattered showers will continue this evening as a cold front progresses southeast. Thunderstorms should be isolated and are not included in the forecast. The showers will end from west to east through the late evening and overnight hours. IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys may develop in the heavier showers. MVFR cigs may linger after the rain for a bit, but satellite shows this band of clouds making good eastward progression, so will continue with optimistic clearing btwn 08-10Z. Lingering low level moisture may result in the development of a sct to possibly MVFR deck in the morning or afternoon. North winds will be strongest this evening at KCGI and KPAH where a few gusts over 20kts will be possible. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...CW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 400 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-051000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 400 PM CDT Tue May 4 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A few thunderstorms are possible through early evening over west Kentucky. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to some additional flooding concerns where heavy rain fell overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday A few thunderstorms are possible across the region Thursday afternoon. Severe storms are not expected. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday night will bring a chance of heavy rainfall to the region. Severe storms are not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DRS
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
526 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0338 AM TORNADO 3 SW CRUTCHFIELD 36.54N 88.97W
05/04/2021 FULTON KY NWS STORM SURVEY
EF-2 TORNADO WITH PEAK WINDS OF 125 MPH
STRUCK FULTON COUNTY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
ONE HOME WAS DESTROYED WITH ITS ROOF REMOVED
AND SOME EXTERIOR WALLS KNOCKED DOWN.
MULTIPLE OUTBUILDINGS COLLAPSED. MULTIPLE
LARGE TREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED. THE
TORNADO BEGAN 5.2 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
FULTON AND ENDED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US
HIGHWAY 51 AND HIGHWAY 94.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 PM CDT TUE MAY 4 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0329 AM TORNADO 4 NW OAKTON 36.71N 89.11W
05/04/2021 HICKMAN KY NWS STORM SURVEY
AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH ESTIMATED PEAK WINDS OF
105 MPH STRUCK HICKMAN COUNTY, KY, EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. MULTIPLE TREES WERE
SNAPPED. MANY TREE BRANCHES AND SOME ENTIRE
TREE FELL ONTO SEVERAL HOMES, WHICH
INFLICTED DAMAGE. THE TORNADO BEGAN AT 3:29
AM 7 MILES WEST OF CLINTON, KY, AND ENDED AT
3:38 AM JUST NORTHEAST OF CLINTON, KY.
&&
DWSThe Ft Campbell radar (KHPX), 24 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:03 UTC.
3 flood, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Vehicles were stalled out in downtown Hopkinsville, as shown in a photo posted on social media.
The Little River went above flood stage in response to two rounds of heavy rain. The moderate river flooding caused widespread inundation of low-lying fields and cropland. There was considerable flooding of a few streets in Hopkinsville. At the Hopkinsville river gage at the by-pass, the crest was around 1.5 feet lower than the major flood of July, 2016. At the river gage at U.S. Highway 68 east of the city, the crest was about two feet lower than the major July, 2016 flood.
There were multiple reports of flash flooding on many state and county roads, including some main roads.
Moderate flooding occurred on the Green River, following two rounds of thunderstorms on the 4th. At the Paradise river gage, the river crested at 387.4 feet on the night of the 7th. Flood stage is 380 feet. There was considerable flooding of low-lying fields and woodlands.
Minor flooding occurred on the Green River following the heavy rain on the 4th. Some low-lying woods and fields near the river were flooded.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 953993, 955593, 953994, 955598, 955600.