Low pressure crossed through the region on March 18th accompanied by a cold front at the surface. Peaks of sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon allowed the atmosphere to become unstable and develop severe thunderstorms as the frontal boundary trekked through the state.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.
Low pressure crossed through the region on March 18th accompanied by a cold front at the surface. Peaks of sunshine during the late morning and early afternoon allowed the atmosphere to become unstable and develop severe thunderstorms as the frontal boundary trekked through the state. Gusty winds within strong storms led to a small tree being blown down in Carter County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 18, 12:35 PM EST, 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 135 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Strong low pressure system brings thunderstorm chances today with a cold front tonight. High pressure then prevails most of Friday, through the weekend, and into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1152 AM Thursday... Low pressure, evident on satellite near the lower Ohio River Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley regions...with a slow moving/nearly stationary frontal boundary stretched east across southern IN/OH, with an occluded front to the south across central KY/TN regions. Dry slot has mostly taken hold across CWA, with breaks in the cloud cover also starting to take hold, particularly near Ohio River vcnty and west into Kentucky. In area to west, and across our western zones, where breaks in the clouds have occurred, cape has been increasing, with spc mesoanalysis page suggesting 500-1000 J/KG. In addition, an area of convection is starting to form across eastern KY as the atmosphere destabilizes. Still looking at the possibility for strong to severe storms...particularly this afternoon, as the low progresses east/se. Mid level lapse rates will steepen across the area, along with strong shear developing, on the order of 40 to 60kts...and already evident on spc mesoanalysis page, with the potential for any convection to become organized. Large hail will be a possibility, especially with low freezing levels around 8000-9000 feet, along with the potential for strong gusty winds to reach the surface owing to mid level dry air. A brief weak tornado also cannot be completely ruled out. In addition, any storms are capable of heavy downpours, and with rather wet conditions in place, isolated water issues cannot be completely ruled out. The low will pull off to the east of the area late tonight and early Friday. Gusty winds will also develop later this afternoon, and linger into the overnight hours, keeping temperatures from falling too much. Cooler, and dry on Friday behind system. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Thursday... Back edge of precip (possibly with a brief spitting of snow) should quickly exit the area to the southeast Friday morning with the vast majority of the daytime hours being dry. Pretty strong pressure gradient force will remain in place through the first half of the day before relaxing some in the afternoon. This will result in continued cold air advection in the morning with a biting north wind, along with temps holding steady- state until closer to late morning. Cooler high temps will then prevail for Friday afternoon with high temps struggling to reach 50 degrees for the lowlands. Surface high pressure then becomes established across the CWA for the weekend. With clear skies both weekend days/nights, weaker wind fields, and a dry airmass in place...we should see some pretty good diurnal thermal ranges. Cold nights with mild afternoons. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 235 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure shifts well east of the area early next work week with warmer south flow developing in its wake. H5 s/w ridge axis is prog to shift east/overhead on Monday with continued dry (and warmer) conditions occurring. Gradual moisture return is set to occur Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next spring storm system. A few showers may occur by the middle of next week, but a messy synoptic pattern and model disagreement promotes leaning towards low POPs for now. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 125 PM Thursday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop across much of the lowlands. Any storm is capable of brief heavy downpours, gusty winds over 50 mph, and large hail. Expect brief MVFR/IFR conditions with any storm/shower. Bulk of convection will wane by 01-03Z, but sct showers will continue to be a possibility through at least 09-12Z. In addition, widespread MVFR and local IFR conditions will develop across the area, particularly after 23Z, except for across the mountains where local/areas of LIFR is expected particularly after 04Z including at site KBKW. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected to take hold from north to south after 09Z. In addition, gusty winds can be expected outside of convection. Winds south to southwesterly will gradually veer to a more northerly direction towards and after 00Z. Gusts up to 26 kts at times outside of convection, particularly with passage of a front, after 03-06Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing storms and associated flight restrictions could vary from TAFs. Low ceilings overnight may lift to VFR quicker on Friday than currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L H H M M H H L H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... Widespread IFR conditions are not expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && SYNOPSIS...SL/JZ NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...SL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston WV 507 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011- 013>020-024>034-039-040-515>526-190915- Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington- Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Dickenson-Buchanan-Wayne- Cabell-Mason-Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha- Roane-Wirt-Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Clay-Braxton- Gilmer-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour- Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-Northwest Fayette- Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas- Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas- Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph- 507 AM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast Ohio, southwest Virginia and much of West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms could become strong to severe and as a result, there is a Slight Risk of severe weather in effect for nearly the entire region. A Slight Risk of severe weather indicates that isolated to scattered severe storms may occur. Locally damaging winds and large hail around 1 inch in diameter will be the primary severe weather threats, although a brief tornado may also occur. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Charleston WV 1234 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 KYZ105-WVZ005-006-013-014-181715- Lawrence-Lincoln-Wayne-Cabell-Putnam- 1234 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE... CABELL...SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL WAYNE COUNTIES... At 1233 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Fort Gay, or over Louisa, moving northeast at 40 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail are possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Louisa, Wayne, Hamlin, Beech Fork State Park, Yatesville Lake State Park, Hurricane, Barboursville, Milton, Fort Gay, Ona, Culloden, East Lynn Lake, Centerville, West Hamlin, Lavalette, Branchland, Salt Rock, Pea Ridge, Fallsburg and East Lynn. This includes Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 17 and 32. LAT...LON 3817 8271 3854 8214 3832 8194 3802 8258 TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 234DEG 33KT 3814 8257 JP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
124 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021
WVZ006>008-013-014-181800-
Jackson-Mason-Lincoln-Cabell-Putnam-
124 PM EDT Thu Mar 18 2021
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MASON...
EASTERN CABELL...PUTNAM...NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND CENTRAL JACKSON
COUNTIES...
At 123 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Buffalo to 7 miles southeast of
Barboursville. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.
Locations impacted include...
Ripley, Winfield, Hamlin, Hurricane, Milton, Eleanor, Buffalo, Ona,
Culloden, Teays Valley, West Hamlin, Bancroft, Leon, Given,
Southside, Salt Rock, Grimms Landing, Evans and Fraziers Bottom.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 77 in West Virginia between mile markers 133 and 139.
Interstate 64 in West Virginia between mile markers 23 and 42.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.
LAT...LON 3830 8229 3831 8228 3831 8229 3876 8203
3888 8162 3840 8189 3839 8190 3837 8190
3831 8194 3822 8227 3823 8227 3823 8229
3825 8231 3827 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 230DEG 29KT 3860 8205 3832 8223
12The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:53 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A small tree was blown down along with several large limbs along New Castle Lane.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 947078.