A large cluster of severe storms developed over southeast Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon and evening hours. After sunset, these storms became more linear and quickly advanced southward with a strong outflow gust front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A large cluster of severe storms developed over southeast Indiana and Ohio during the afternoon and evening hours. After sunset, these storms became more linear and quickly advanced southward with a strong outflow gust front. This gust front and trailing line of storms produced a swath of minor wind damage as they plowed into northeast Kentucky during the mid-to-late evening hours but rapidly weakened after dropping south of the Mountain Parkway. No weather observing stations in the Jackson forecast area measured severe wind gusts; however, a 67 mph gust was recorded at the Fleming Mason Airport just north of the Fleming County line.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 7:15 PM EST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 815 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021 23Z sfc analysis shows low pressure and a quasi-stationary west to east oriented front to the north with a cluster of strong to severe storms working southeast through southern Indiana and southwestern Ohio. A healthy pressure gradient exists between the low to the north and higher pressure to the south. This is supporting southwest winds through the area running at 10 to 20 mph north to the 5 mph or less in the south. Under mostly sunny skies temperatures climbed into the mid and upper 80s for much of the area and have only slightly cooled with 80 t0 85 degree readings most common across eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, dewpoints are also rather high with upper 60s north to the the mid 60s south. The newer CAMs guidance and radar trends suggest that the storms to the northwest could impact northern parts of the area later this evening - likely fading out as they drop too far south. However, instability and shear are relatively high for locations along and north of the Mountain Parkway - along with high PW air. Have updated the grids to add in higher PoPs and more of a storm threat north while also including the latest obs and trends for the sky cover/T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. A zone and SAF update will be issued shortly to incorporate these forecast adjustments. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 515 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021 Late this afternoon, an upper level ridge was centered over northern AZ/Four Corners region with an upper level ridge centered near the Bahamas while an upper level trough trough moving across the Ontario and the Great Lakes region. Further south a low/ potential tropical cyclone was in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is leading to west to northwest flow aloft across the midwest and Great Lakes as well as the OH Valley region. At the surface, the region is in the warm sector of an area of low pressure tracking across the southern Great Lakes region with sfc high pressure centered over the southern Appalachians. Locally, despite warm temperatures and increasing moisture, the low level flow across the southeastern portions of the area has a downslope component off the higher terrain of SW VA and northeast TN while the highest dewpoints and greatest instability is across the western and northwestern portions of the area. However, the the earlier convection/outflow having become diffuse and fizzled there are currently no triggers and only shallow to a bit of moderate cumulus is across the region. Much stronger convection is located north of the OH River in OH where instability and shear are much greater. This evening and tonight, 500 mb height falls are anticipated as a series of shortwave troughs or perhaps MCVS from upstream convection move across the OH Valley region. At the surface, the frontal zone should become quasi stationary well north of the area across the southern Great Lakes vicinity. There is uncertainty in the evolution of convection this evening over the OH Valley region, but convective allowing models generally develop one or more clusters or MCSs and then track them to the east southeast or southeast and into the Appalachian region late this evening into the overnight hours. This convection will probably be weakening as it does so, with the areas north of the Mountain Parkway and near the WV border likely having the greater chances for convection and the southwester locations the least. Some of this could be strong with gusty winds or small hail across northern locations where instability and shear should be greatest though it tapers off with southward extent into the region. Some training is not out of the question if an outflow can become nearly parallel to west northwest flow aloft. Saturday and Saturday night, passing disturbances and or convection that moves into the region overnight may linger into Saturday morning mainly across northern locations. The sfc frontal zone should remain well north of the OH River during this timeframe as well. The consensus of the guidance suggests that activity lingering into Saturday morning should wane toward midday, though additional development may occur across the south during peak heating. Another disturbance in west northwest flow should move across the lower OH Valley region Saturday evening into Saturday night when chances for convection may peak across the north. During this time, the low in the Gulf should move into the deep south, but moisture from that system is currently expected to remain south and east of the southern Appalachians. Temperatures will be above normal during the short term period with lows tonight and Saturday night in the mid to upper 60s while highs on Saturday should average in the mid to upper 80s. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 535 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021 A very warm pattern will prevail on Sunday and Monday along with the threat for a showers and thunderstorms. The rainfall threat on Sunday will be rather isolated with the more widespread activity occurring Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning with a strong cold front. A noticeably cooler and drier Canadian air mass will build across the area from later Tuesday through Thursday. Warming temperatures and rising humidity levels return for later in the week, courtesy a warm front. The models are generally in good agreement on the overall pattern, although some differences do arise from about Wednesday onward. Diving into the details, look for a cold front, initially located near/north of the Ohio River on Sunday morning, to retreat back to the north, taking any spotty showers or storms with it. Meanwhile, a tropical system is projected to pass from the from AL/GA to over SC/NC by 00z Monday. This trajectory should keep eastern KY mainly dry and downsloped, outside of a possible stray shower/storm near the VA border. Otherwise, Sunday will be partly to mostly sunny with above normal temperatures between 85 and 90 degrees. Mainly quiescent weather will continue Sunday night with mild lows in the mid 60s to around 70. Well to our northwest, an unseasonably deep upper level trough will be amplifying over north central US on Sunday, dropping southeast and enveloping nearly all of the eastern CONUS by Wednesday. An associated surface low will rapidly deepen and lift from the Central Plains to northern Quebec, sweeping a strong cold front across the Commonwealth late Monday/Monday night. GFS soundings show effective shear values increasing to between 30 and 35 knots while MLCAPE values reach 1200-1800 J/kg -- sufficient for organized convection. Ahead of the front, temperatures will again be very warm, reaching 85 to 90 degrees. While some spotty showers or storms are possible earlier, the primary window for convection appears to be 18z Monday - 9z Tuesday. Behind the front, chilly Canadian high pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Tuesday. A drying, N/NW flow will send 850 mb temps tumbling into the 8-12C range by 00z Wednesday. This will translate to highs only in the low to mid 70s for most locations on Tuesday and in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Low temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s, valley to ridges, can be expected both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. A few mid 40s are possible in the coldest sheltered valleys either night. Additional moderation into the lower to mid 80s is expected on Thursday. The latest 12z ECMWF does show a weak upper level disturbance bringing some light QPF on Wednesday, but this is not supported by other models at this point. Therefore, once any lingering showers depart to the east Tuesday morning, dry weather is expected through Thursday. The next warm front approaches Thursday night or Friday, but there is plenty of model disagreement on the details. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT FRI JUN 18 2021 VFR conditions will prevail during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period. Winds will be generally out of the southwest through the night - sustained at near 10 kts across the west and northwest with gusts up to 20 kts near and north of I-64 to start the period. Look for these winds to slacken through about 03Z before an area of thunderstorms will probably approach from the north and start to affect the JKL aviation forecast area, particularly our more northern locations. Additional strong convection could impact the area towards dawn if the latest mesoscale models are correct. Winds will then pick up from the southwest during the day Saturday at around 10 kts along with scattered convection. Only locations directly impacted by any of these storms are expected to see conditions drop to MVFR or lower - too uncertain for inclusion in the prevailing TAF FM groups at this time. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...GEERTSON AVIATION...JP/GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 925 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 KYZ050-058>060-104-106>112-119-120-200430- Montgomery-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 925 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible late this evening and tonight, especially north of the Mountain Parkway. Some of the these could produce strong wind gusts, locally heavy rain, and small hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible on Saturday, mainly in the morning. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Saturday evening through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any storm damage or hail through the night. KYZ044-051-052-200430- Fleming-Bath-Rowan- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Owingsville, and Morehead 925 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281 IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this evening and into the first part of tonight. Some of the these could produce damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and large hail. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible on Saturday, mainly in the morning. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Saturday evening through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any storm damage or hail through the night. KYZ068-069-079-080-083>088-113>118-200430- Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox- Bell-Harlan-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher- Including the cities of Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, and Whitesburg 925 PM EDT Fri Jun 18 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible at times from late Saturday afternoon through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. JP/GREIF
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 94 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:35 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Fleming County dispatch reported that a strong thunderstorm gust front knocked down multiple trees along Dudley Hollow and Wooley Roads.
The Fleming County dispatch reported that a strong thunderstorm gust front blew down a tree near the intersection of Maddox and Beechtree Pikes.
The Rowan County dispatch reported trees blown down onto North Wilson Avenue due to a strong thunderstorm gust front.
The Rowan County dispatch reported that a strong thunderstorm gust front caused multiple trees to fall onto Laurel Road near Elliotville.
The Morgan County dispatch reported that trees had been knocked down by a strong thunderstorm gust front at the intersection of KY-437 and KY-172.
An NWS employee saw a large tree limb that had been broken by the thunderstorm gust front and subsequently fell onto KY-30.
The local broadcast media reported that a strong thunderstorm gust front had blown down a large tree in the Bradley area of Magoffin County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 956147, 956146, 956148, 956149, 956150, 956152, 956151.