A strong cold front neared the Commonwealth from the northwest during the morning of June 17th, quickly dropping into the state by the afternoon hours. Kentucky was well primed ahead of this front, with strong southerly flow ushering in large amounts of moisture.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A strong cold front neared the Commonwealth from the northwest during the morning of June 17th, quickly dropping into the state by the afternoon hours. Kentucky was well primed ahead of this front, with strong southerly flow ushering in large amounts of moisture. Showers and thunderstorms began popping up along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon hours in south-central and south-eastern KY, producing heavy rains. At this point, the front began to slow substantially, with storms remaining nearly stationary along the front well into the first part of the overnight hours. Laurel and Whitley counties experienced some of the heaviest and most prolonged heavy rain, which eventually led to instances of flash flooding within the county during the late evening hours of the 17th and early hours of the 18th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 17, 6:40 PM EST, 4 hours 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 740 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 740 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021 Currently, scattered showers and storms are moving southeast across the CWA, mainly ahead and along the cold front that is draped across the central portion of the CWA. Have kept higher PoPs along and south of the Mountain Parkway and lowered the PoPs in the north. A light shower or two is still possible north of the Parkway over the next few hours but chances are much less than south of the Parkway. Ingested the latest T/Td obs into the next few hours. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021 Latest analysis shows surface low pressure just south of Lake Erie with a frontal boundary stretching back through OH and northern KY and westward through the middle of the country. At the upper levels, a shortwave is moving through the area and our region is sitting below the right rear of an upper level jet. This is all providing support for numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area today. While cloud cover and lower temps today are somewhat limiting the amount of destabilization, a few stronger storms still can't be completely ruled out. WPC has the region under a marginal risk for excessive rain, and this is mainly for the concern for storms passing over the same areas today providing for an isolated flooding risk. Coverage of precip will decrease this evening after dark although chance pops will continue over the southern half of the area overnight as the frontal boundary is expected to reach central KY late tonight. Near term guidance is also bullish on low stratus/fog moving in overnight. Expanded the mention of patchy fog beyond just the typical river valleys. Low temps tonight will range from the lower 60s north to mid and upper 60s south. Frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag south on Sunday likely only making it to the KY/TN border by Sunday evening. This will result in additional showers/storms across the southern half of the area, while the northern half of the area especially north of I-64 will see much more sunshine and only have a slight chance of rain. High temps will again be cooler than normal only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s. The front pushes south of the area overnight bringing an end to any remaining precip. Overnight low temps will be in the low to mid 60s. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 440 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021 Overall, a much drier forecast is expected over the extended than what what has been seen recently. The general pattern consists mainly of a trough over the eastern CONUS while ridging builds out to our west. Models are in fair agreement over the upper level pattern through at least the middle of the work week, before confidence begins to decrease some for the latter half of the work week and into the weekend. They show a trough stretching through the Ohio Valley for the early part of the week, while at the surface, the front that brought our unsettled weather over the weekend will have sagged south just below the area and into the Tennessee Valley. Confidence is decent over the first part of the week, however, uncertainty increases Wednesday and beyond. Generally, another wave is set to move southeast through the flow while an associated surface front nudges south into the Ohio Valley. The uncertainty lies with how far the cold front is actually able to make it, which would have an effect on our rain chances. While 12z operational model runs show some agreement, ensembles still show some spread around the wave, as well as precip chances. Moving into the end of the work week, Some additional upper level waves look to move through the flow, bringing more unsettled weather over the weekend. Sensible weather will feature dry weather for most through the early part of the week. However the front is not quite far enough away from the area to rule out rain completely, especially near the Virginia and Tennessee borders, where PoPs peak between 20 and 25%. Wednesday is still uncertain, depending on the evolution of the upper level wave and surface front. Kept with the dry forecast given by the NBM but did nudge PoPs up slightly to account for the uncertainty. Have slight chance to chance PoPs getting into the weekend as unsettled weather returns across much of the area. Highs Monday range from the low to mid 80s, while the rest of the period is slightly warmer in the mid to upper 80s. Lows are expected to range from the low to mid 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2021 FEW to SCT MVFR ceilings to start the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening which will result in brief flight restrictions. Precip tapers off overnight although chances will remain especially over S/SE KY. Near term guidance is fairly bullish with IFR ceilings and fog developing overnight into Sunday morning. Trended all locations downward after 06Z. Frontal boundary slowly pushes south through the area on Sunday, with additional showers/storms likely, especially at LOZ/SME. Winds will be SW 5-10 kts (NW at SYM) this afternoon becoming light and variable overnight, and then NE on Sunday 5 kts or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...BATZ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM...HAS AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-182230- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 327 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon into this evening. Some of these storms will produce torrential downpours, possibly leading to isolated flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a possibility of thunderstorms near and south of the Mountain Parkway on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall may result in isolated instances of flooding. There is a small potential for thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday, and Friday this upcoming week. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to forward any reports of flooding through Sunday. CMF/HAS
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021
KYZ068-079-080-180015-
Rockcastle-Laurel-Pulaski-
733 PM EDT Sat Jul 17 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN LAUREL...
CENTRAL PULASKI AND SOUTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 733 PM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Valley Oak,
or 11 miles southwest of Mount Vernon, moving east at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Mount Vernon, Science Hill, Cains Store, Donaro, Bandy,
Woodstock, Spiro, Wabp, Hansford, Dabney, Willailla, Hogue, Hazel
Patch, Pine Hill, Magnum, Camp Wildcat, Sand Hill, Dudley Station and
Billows.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3712 8490 3730 8464 3739 8421 3712 8415
3706 8491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 260DEG 15KT 3723 8446
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 85 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:47 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Laurel county dispatch reported that East 4th Street (Highway 80) in London was closed in the vicinity of Tobacco Road due to flash flooding.
Corbin dispatch reported that the Cumberland Falls Highway was closed due to flash flooding just west of I-75.
Corbin dispatch reported that a car had stalled out in floodwaters in the vicinity of exit 25(Highway 25W/I-75 interchange).
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 964812, 964808, 964809.