The Green River remained above flood stage as a result of heavy rainfall on the 25th of January. Some low-lying areas in the flood plain were inundated, mostly fields and undeveloped woodland.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
The Green River remained above flood stage as a result of heavy rainfall on the 25th of January. Some low-lying areas in the flood plain were inundated, mostly fields and undeveloped woodland. The river crested on the 29th of January and fell back below flood stage on the 1st of February.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:34 PM CST, 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1134 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 257 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Broad cyclonic flow, with sharp pressure gradient to the west, continues around a surface low in southeast Indiana, northwest of Louisville Kentucky as of 1 pm CST this Sunday. The high resolution ensembles (HREF) appear to be handling the light precipitation wrapping around the deep moisture layer around the low fairly well, while the deterministic NAM-WRF/HRRR numerical guidance is handling the outer band of marginal measurable/trace precipitation better in the short term. As cold air advection continues to slowly work south into the WFO PAH forecast area this afternoon, anticipate a gradually changeover and mix of rain and snow during the evening, with mainly light snow after midnight tonight and early Monday morning. Ground temperatures will allow for some melting tonight, but suspect there will be a sharp gradient of minor accumulations from western to central Kentucky and southern Indiana. Some localize snow amounts less than 1/2 inch may be possible in the eastern Pennyrile region of west Kentucky, extending north into southwest Indiana by Monday morning. Trace amounts of snow may be possible as far west as southeast Illinois, east of Interstate 57. With continued mechanical mixing due to winds/wind gusts overnight, expect overnight lows to hover close to the freezing mark. The best recovery of temperatures over southeast Missouri where cloud breaks will be most likely. Dry weather will return Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, as high pressure builds into the area. The combination of cold air advection, weakening wind fields with the relaxing pressure gradient behind the low, and radiational loss should keep minimum temperatures in the 20s Monday night and Tuesday night, with less than a 20 degree diurnal rise during the day on Tuesday. In addition to the high resolution guidance and NBM initialization, did utilize the Canadian guidance as blended guidance for surface and upper air features. Compared to the suite of guidance this morning, the Canadian guidance was far superior with boundary layer and mid level temperatures and moisture for the forecast. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 257 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Forecast confidence Wednesday into Thursday is reasonably high, but it tanks heading into the weekend. There is a reasonable consensus in a transient upper ridge building over the region Wednesday, leading to lots of sunshine, a return of south winds and a modest warm up to just above normal levels. Warm advection will increase Wednesday night into Thursday as a northern stream trough dives into the upper Mississippi Valley. We could seem some showers prior to sunrise Thursday over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. If this occurs, temperatures should be warm enough to avoid any wintry impacts at the onset. The shower potential will spread over the entire region Thursday. Temperatures are expected to climb into the low to mid 50s throughout the region. While all of the medium range guidance indicates a major pattern shift to a significant full latitude trough developing east of the Rockies by next weekend, there is a wide range of solutions in how it gets there and at what longitude the trough sets up. Cluster analysis from WPC indicates that the main issue is how much troughing there is over the desert southwest, versus more energy caught up in a closed low off of Baja. The 12Z GFS is an example of the former and leads to more of a positively-tilted trough pushing a cold front through the area Thursday night. This could lead to heavy post-frontal rains Thursday night and Friday, as we remain in southwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, the 12Z ECMWF and CMC have a closed low off Baja and are able to have a deeper northern stream trough pivoting to a neutral if not negative tilt orientation as it moves through the mid and upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. This leads to a much deeper surface system approaching Lake Michigan and a quicker cold frontal passage in our region. The result would be more of a thunder threat, and a quicker cessation of precipitation with a dry Friday for all. There is some consensus for the leading edge of Arctic high pressure to enter Montana Friday, along with an upper-level disturbance. However, differences in the fate of the initial trough Thursday, lead to a wide range of possibilities for the upper disturbance, Arctic high, and waves along the Arctic front. We could remain mostly dry with perhaps a brief period of snow with the Arctic front Saturday, or we could end up in the deformation zone of a Gulf Coastal storm system Saturday night into Sunday. More significant snow would be possible in this second scenario, depending on how quickly the Arctic air arrives. The bottom line is that by next Sunday we will likely have Arctic air over the entire region with high temperatures possibly not reaching freezing with or without snow cover. Whether we have any thunder, or heavy rain, or significant wintry precipitation is up for debate depending on which cluster of solutions you prefer. For now we will have a lot of chance PoPs from Thursday through Saturday night, and settle for mentioning the range of possibilities here. Hopefully, the medium range guidance will come into better agreement in the next few days. && .AVIATION... Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Light snow continues in the Evansville Tri-State and will remain a factor for much of the first six hours of the TAF period. Accumulations are expected to be limited to half an inch or snow or less, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. IFR cigs are ongoing in the Evansville Tri-State while elsewhere cigs are MVFR. Vsbys in the Tri-State are also generally MVFR with temporary dips to IFR. Cloud heights will slowly lift through the TAF period, though the Tri-State will struggle to reach 3000 ft or diminish to scattered coverage compared to the other sites due to its proximity to the northeastern system. Northwesterly winds will continue through the TAF period, 10-15 kts sustained with gusts of 20-25 kts. Winds will begin to drop during the evening hours. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...ATL SHORT TERM...Smith LONG TERM...DRS AVIATION...ATL
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 146 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100- 107>112-114-011100- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL- Franklin-Hamilton-White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union- Johnson-Pope-Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey- Vanderburgh-Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard- McCracken-Graves-Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg- Caldwell-Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 146 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A switchover to light snow for this evening and overnight tonight could produce a light accumulation of up to half an inch of snow on mianly grassy surfaces for the I-64 corridor in southwest Indiana and west Kentucky Pennyrile. Travel impacts are anticipated to be minimal. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding continued on the Green River into the morning of February 1.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 941038.