Flash flooding was the result of heavy rainfall in Douglas County during the morning hours of 6/30.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
Flash flooding was the result of heavy rainfall in Douglas County during the morning hours of 6/30.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 4:38 AM CST, 2 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 538 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 07Z water vapor imagery continues to show mid level ridging along the mid Atlantic and over the Pacific Northwest. An upper trough was noted over the Hudson Bay and extending south into the Great Lakes. Over the central plains, a general anticyclonic flow persisted with a good fetch of low and mid level moisture from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Mexico moving into the central plains. The 00Z TOP RAOB showed a precipital water value almost reaching 2 inches. And the layered PW product from the polar orbiting satellites support this deep moisture remaining over the forecast area. At the surface, a diffuse pattern persisted with little gradient in the MSLP field over the central U.S. The better dewpoint gradient was located from the central high plains into the northern plains. For today and tonight, there is not much change progged by the models in airmass or dynamics so a persistence forecast is in order. All of the models show reasonable instability with MUCAPE around 1200 J/kg while lapse rates remain pretty modest around 5.5 C/km. So with the moist airmass over the forecast area, there should be enough instability for showers and storms to persist. There isn't much in the lower troposphere to focus convection however so the POPs generally favor the areas of east central KS where the deep moisture axis remains. By tonight models show a boundary at 850 beginning to push south through the forecast area. This is forecast to focus the higher POPs mainly across the southern half of the forecast area as the night progresses. The main hazard continues to be the very heavy rainfall. With freezing levels over 15 KFT, a deep layer of warm moist air remains favorable for warm rain processes and efficient rainfall. Because of this will maintain the flash flood watch through this afternoon. But with a lack of a surface boundary to focus deep convection, training storms becomes a little less likely with the location of heavy rain being kind of random. As long as storms keep moving, the flash flood hazard should remain isolated. Deep layer shear is forecast to remain modest so chances for hail and wind remain muted. Highs today should be similar to yesterday's with readings from around 80 in the east to the middle 80s across north central KS. Clouds and little change in airmass should help keep overnight lows around 70. By Thursday the upper trough over the Great Lakes is progged to dig into the TN river valley. This should cause surface ridging to slowly build south with the bulk of dry air advection occurring Thursday night. So while many areas should see a wind shift to the northeast by Thursday afternoon, there looks to be enough residual moisture in place for some potential of showers and storms through the afternoon, especially south of the KS river. Highs are forecast to be a degree or two warmer for Thursday in part to less cloud cover and greater insolation. Friday through the July Fourth holiday Continues to look dry as ridging at the surface and aloft promote subsidence with a drier airmass over the central plains. The upper ridge looks to begin breaking down by Sunday night but with limited opportunity for moisture to return, precip chances should remain to the west of the forecast area. Temps should trend warmer through the weekend with highs expected to be in the middle 80s to lower 90s by Sunday. But still low level moisture looks to remain modest with dewpoints forecast to be in the lower and middle 60s. For Monday and Tuesday, the ECMWF and GFS, while showing some differences, suggest weak upper level flow will remain over the central plains with any forcing for vertical motion remaining subtle. This looks like a typical summer time patter with thermodynamics playing a larger role in precip chances. The forecast stayed close to the national blend of models with some low end POPs that are not far off from climatology. Also in line with more of a summer time pattern, temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 80s and lower 90s for highs with lows around 70. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday) Issued at 538 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Biggest uncertainty is timing the showers and storms at the terminals. Have used radar trends and CAMs in the short term to try and time the precip, but how things evolve in the next 6 hrs or so is a low confidence forecast due to the lack of a boundary or large scale forcing. The other low confidence aspect of the forecast is the models overdoing the boundary layer RH and wanting to have IFR CIGS. Outside of the showers, CIGS have tended to be VFR the past day or so. I don't see anything changing this today. So will try and keep the lower conditions to when the heavier precip impacts the terminals. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ026-039-040- 054>056-058-059. && DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 426 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-010930- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 426 AM CDT Wed Jun 30 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms with very heavy rain remain possible across all of north central, northeast and east central Kansas. Some locations could see 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short period of time. A flash flood watch remains in effect for east central Kansas where there has recently been heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters will not be needed today or tonight, but are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over 1 inch to the National Weather Service in Topeka. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep Wolters
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:21 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The northbound lane of E2200 Road partially covered with water and ditches are full on both sides of the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 966417.