Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 20, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

The main concern for weather in the short-term is a negatively-
tilted shortwave trough that will be moving through the upper
Midwest this evening into Saturday morning. This wave will bring the
chance for a line of thunderstorms to form along the boundary in
northeast KS in the early to late evening hours.

At 20Z, mid-level water vapor imagery shows the trough moving into
the northern Plains. An associated weak surface low will slowly
propagate northeast along the trough axis bringing a cold front
into the forecast area. Warm sector CAPE values are ranging from
3500 to 4500 J/kg as diurnal heating continues. A 10-15 knot
surface wind has advected moisture into the region, keeping
dewpoint temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across northeast
Kansas. With all of this moisture pooling ahead of the front,
PWATs will range from 1.5 to 2 inches indicating efficient
rainfall rates within given thunderstorms.

Temperatures are ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s across
the area. Given the excess moisture in the boundary layer, heat
index values have exceeded 105 degrees in spots. A heat advisory
will remain in place for several counties until 7 PM.

For this evening, thunderstorms will begin to form along the frontal
boundary with initial convection likely being isolated.
Development in north-central KS is expected to begin around 6-7pm
and with the line of storms arriving in the Topeka area around
8-9pm. The 0-6 km effective wind shear should remain around 20-30
knots and will begin to push convection into a line as it moves
east. 0-3 km SRH ahead of the boundary should increase to 150-200
as the LLJ increases to around 20-30 knots. With these factors in
mind and the lack of ample deep wind shear, tornado risk is not
high but a few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The main risks
that will come with these storms will be the threat for strong
winds with DCAPE values around 1500 J/kg. Additionally, given
that these storms could produce efficient rainfall rates,
localized flash flooding could be a concern. Brief backbuilding of
storms could also cause concern for flash flooding as the cold
front passes. Widespread rainfall amounts will generally be around
0.25 to 0.75 inches with localized 1-2+ inch amounts.

The cold front will push through the area by Saturday morning
ushering in dryer and cooler air. High temperatures will remain in
the 80s for Saturday but will be followed by a warming trend. A
ridging pattern will set up over much of the south-central US
helping to warm high temperatures back in to the mid to upper 90s
through Wednesday. A few shortwaves could bring chances for
thunderstorms in the early week, but there is not much confidence on
the timing and positioning of these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

For the 18Z TAF period, expect some MVFR CIGS for KTOP/KFOE this
afternoon. A front is expected to work through terminals this
evening, which will shift winds from the south/southeast to the
north/northwest, and will bring a line of storms through the area.
Storms are expected at KMHK between 00Z and 02Z, and at KTOP/KFOE
around 02Z to 04Z. Rain should exit to the east overnight with dry
conditions expected Saturday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ020>023-034>039-
054-055.

&&

DISCUSSION...Teefey/Griesener
AVIATION...Teefey

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
509 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212215-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
509 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through the evening. Storms
developing across north central Kansas now will move to the east
this evening and are expected to eventually form into lines and
clusters. There is an outside chance for a tornado and large hail
initially. But as storms develop into the clusters, damaging winds
and locally heavy rain are the main concern. Storms are forecast
to weaken towards the midnight hour and eventually exit east
central Kansas between 1 and 3 am.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report severe weather to the National
Weather Service in Topeka.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

KSZ034-202230-
Ottawa-
506 PM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Ottawa
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 506 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ada, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, Delphos, Tescott and Ada.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
north central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3925 9793 3928 9787 3931 9771 3931 9770
      3908 9757 3900 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 242DEG 30KT 3913 9794

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Teefey