Precipitation continued to underperform in northwest Iowa during February with drought conditions persisting.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Precipitation continued to underperform in northwest Iowa during February with drought conditions persisting.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:48 PM CST, 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1148 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Sunday/ Issued at 308 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 Today through Wednesday: The center of the low pressure system that brought light snow and freezing rain to central and eastern Iowa this morning has moved into the southern Great Lakes Region this afternoon. The system has become vertically stacked, CVA has halted and thus have seen a considerable slow down in the propagation speed of the system. Iowa remains on the backside of the cyclonic flow, which will keep all of the state in under overcast sky cover for the rest of the evening. With overcast skies though, temperatures will not drop by much this evening. Most of the precipitation will push out of the area by evening if any is still on going through the late afternoon. Strong southerly flow east of the Rockies will aid in amplifying a thermal ridge for the start of the work week. Although there does appear to be a kicker trough developing over the northern Pacific, the forcing is still quite far away and thus the thermal ridge axis will propagate at a slow pace across the central Plains. For Monday and Tuesday, mid to upper-level flow will be northwesterly downstream from the ridge axis. This should favor an AVA regime promoting subsidence and surface high pressure development. Expect gradual clearing of clouds with this through Monday and Tuesday, though left over moisture from this previous may system not be completely advected away. While not completely overcast, still expect typical February cloud cover to stick around. Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge axis continues to move across the central Plains, low-level flow will turn southwesterly and promote WAA. Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will steadily increase, with southwest Iowa perhaps reaching the mid to upper 40s by Wednesday. Wednesday evening, a trough comes ashore along the western CONUS, and at the current moment model guidance is suggesting a split flow regime. This turns the quiet weather pattern active for Thursday and Friday. Thursday and Friday: After the long-wave trough comes ashore, a southerly jet max develops and digs toward the desert southwest, while a northerly jet max will races across the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Lee Cyclogenesis is depicted in both 12z GFS and ECMWF with both of these features. Thursday morning, low-level flow will remain southerly. With the two waves and surface cyclones increasing convergence, expect rain showers early on with enhanced isentropic ascent. What happens later in the afternoon on Thursday is still difficult to depict. The northern cyclone is forecast to remain further eastward than the southern cyclone, and when this happens CAA begins across the northwest forecast area Thursday afternoon. Southeast portions of the forecast area though will still have WAA ongoing ahead of the southern feature. The one change with the 12z model cycles is that that southern cyclone now takes a track further north, with the center moving across Missouri. As a result, the deformation zone with this cyclone moves closer to Iowa, providing better forcing for precipitation. However, with the other low pressure to the north, it is hard to determine how the strong CAA will interact with this. Most members in the ensemble suites do have a decent amount of QPF across the area Thursday through Friday, and thus have placed POPs across the entire forecast area for the bulk of Thursday and Friday. If the track continues northward for the southern cyclone, hazardous travel impacts could begin due to accumulating snow and gusty winds. The strong push of CAA should promote a transition to all snow, but early on there could be potential for some kind of mixed precipitation. How the two systems interact with each other and impact their tracks will largely control the thermal profile and the favorable p-type. Next Weekend: After the long-wave trough moves through, strong northerly flow will bring in Arctic air to most of the Midwest. Temperatures next weekend may struggle to reach above 0F. With gusty winds, wind chills may be an issue in the overnight and early morning hours of next weekend. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night/ Issued at 1144 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 MVFR to periodic IFR ceilings to persist for the majority of the TAF period. High pressure continues to build into the region on Monday and helps to strengthen the inversion through the day Monday. Thus, the current stratus deck will linger through at least Monday night before the inversion weakens. Until then, confident to keep the MVFR stratus. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && DISCUSSION...Krull AVIATION...Podrazik
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 244 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097-011400- Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo- Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene- Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper- Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union- Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne- Appanoose-Davis- 244 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Strong winds and accumulating snowfall are possible on Thursday, and may result in blowing snow and hazardous travel. However, confidence is relatively low at this time. Bitter, perhaps dangerously cold temperatures also appear increasingly likely next weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Lee
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Emmet County during February. Precipitation continued to be below average and frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Kossuth County during February. Precipitation continued to be below average and frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe drought persisted across portions of Pocahontas County during February. Precipitation continued to be below average and frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
Severe to extreme drought persisted across portions of Palo Alto County during February. Precipitation continued to be below average and frozen ground conditions prevented any soil recharge.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 940608, 940609, 940610, 940611.