A period of wet weather from the 11th to the 18th primed the ground for minor flooding of Wabash basin rivers, including the Skillet Fork. Thunderstorms that accompanied a cold front on the 17th and 18th were the final straw that sent them just above flood stage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A period of wet weather from the 11th to the 18th primed the ground for minor flooding of Wabash basin rivers, including the Skillet Fork. Thunderstorms that accompanied a cold front on the 17th and 18th were the final straw that sent them just above flood stage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 18, 5:48 PM CST, 4 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 648 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 The upper low is drifting east along the Tennessee border near the lakes as of 20Z, and has behaved itself to this point. The occluded front runs east to west just north of Interstate 64, and has been rather stationary through the day. The low will move out of the area by 00Z and surface boundary will slowly slip east and south through the region through the evening. Ahead of the front this afternoon and evening, areas of drizzle will continue along with west to southwest winds. In the wake of the front, scattered to numerous mainly light showers will drift southeast across the region through the evening, and north winds will become quite strong with gusts 25 to 35 mph at times through the night. Temperatures will fall quickly, but should remain warm enough to avoid any wintry concerns. The entire area should see lows in the 30s, and the northwest periphery of the area may see a brief light freeze. Cool surface high pressure will build into the region through Friday, and then linger through the first half of the weekend. We are expecting skies to clear by early Friday, but despite ample sunshine high temperatures will only reach the lower 50s. Factor in the continued gusty north winds and it will not be a pleasant day to be outside. With dewpoints well into the 20s, clear skies, and only a light northeast wind Friday night a freeze would see like a good bet, but the consensus of guidance keeps most of the area right near freezing for lows. We may not be cold enough, especially if the wind dies off completely. The surface high will remain in control of the region Saturday, as heights rise from the west. Temperatures will trend upward and should top out near normal around 60 degrees. Another light freeze will be possible Saturday night. Our lows in the middle 30s may be a bit optimistic. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 An upper level ridge over our region Sunday will slide east by Monday. Surface high pressure centered over the northeast U.S. Sunday will move off the coast by Monday. We should see quite a bit of sunshine on Sunday, and with winds becoming southeasterly, high temperatures will be 3 to 5 degrees warmer than Saturday. Overnight lows Sunday night will be around 5 degrees warmer than Saturday night. Dry conditions will continue into Monday, with high temperatures another 2 or 3 degrees warmer than Sunday. This will put us 6 to 8 degrees above normal by Monday. On Monday, models show a surface low over the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles around 18z. Models take the low slowly northeast, moving it over Iowa/southern Minnesota by Tuesday evening. The associated warm front will lift across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Monday night into Tuesday. The trailing cold front will move across our region some time in the late Tuesday night to Wednesday night time frame, depending on what model you look at. Temperatures will remain above normal through the end of the extended, though readings will trend down just a little late in the week. Shower chances will spread west to east across the PAH forecast area Monday night into Tuesday. The best chances will be across southeast Missouri Tuesday, and went likely pops there in the morning, tapering off to slight chances in our far east counties. By Tuesday afternoon, went with 50 percent west to 30 percent east. As we get into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the cold front will be weakening as it approaches, and due to the aforementioned model timing differences, confidence decreases for mid to late week. Model blends keep pops in the slight to chances categories for showers, and that seems the safe bet at this point, and pops will continue into Thursday. We are not seeing much in the way of instability, so no thunder is included at this time. && .AVIATION... Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 Lingering rain/drizzle and associated visibility restrictions should gradually diminish through the evening hours as the upper low continues to shift east of the region. Largely MVFR ceilings are forecast to gradually clear from northwest to southeast overnight into Friday morning as drier air works into the area. Where they haven't already done so, north winds will pick up to around 15 knots with gusts into the 20s through Friday. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...RJP SHORT TERM...DRS LONG TERM...RST AVIATION...RJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-191000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 312 PM CDT Thu Mar 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight North winds will gust 25 to 35 mph at times tonight, mainly over southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, and near the Mississippi river in southeast Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. DRS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of the Skillet Fork River caused fields and farmland to go underwater.
Minor flooding occurred on the Wabash River. Some low-lying farmland was underwater, but this flood was even more minor than the flood earlier in the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 943676, 943879.