Funnel Clouds in Illinois, June 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Updated for 18Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

It feels a little like Groundhog Day, with the repetitious effects
of the drift of the upper Low, and the inhale/exhale feature of
daily daytime and nighttime pops. The ensemble guidance continues
to ping a very moist signal with 2+ standard deviations above the
norm, low 2's PW's in the 99th percentile, and return intervals
upwards to 30 yrs. We like the new ERO slgt risk extension across
the FA thru Thursday. As to the marginal svr, we cannot rule out
an isolated stronger storm that maybe has enough support to push
out of a cluster and propagate some downward momentum into a
localized gust hazard, but the main impact hazard will continue to
be heavy rain/localized flooding potential.

Groundhog Day temps with attendant sky cover influence repeat as
well, generally lower half 80s for highs and around 70 for dew
points and lows, or within a couple degrees thereof.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

The medium range models indicated that the pesky low pressure system
lurking in our area will merge with mid level shortwave energy
coming out of eastern Canada, while being motivated eastward by
another mid level shortwave traversing the upper Midwest. As a
result, initially warm and humid conditions for us will eventually
give way to slightly cooler, less humid conditions, plus an eventual
cessation of scattered, mainly afternoon and evening tstm activity.

Ridging aloft will generally get established with northerly low
level winds in place by the weekend. However, model consensus
suggested that the real punch of drier air and higher surface
pressures will arrive early Sunday from the north. So, Fri/Sat will
have a fairly decent coverage of showers and, to a lesser degree,
tstms, with the best PoP/QPF generally in southwestern IN and the
Pennyrile region of KY. Locally heavy rain is possible. Despite
waning deep moisture Sun, it is possible there could still be enough
instability/moisture for isolated activity to develop mainly east of
the MS River in the afternoon.

Highs near 90 Fri/Sat should cool to the middle 80s by Mon, with
lows mainly in the lower 70s Fri/Sat lowering well into the 60s by
Mon.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

Showers continue to circulate north into the area as an upper low
moves slowly NE across MO. Impacts will be greatest this
afternoon to KCGI and KPAH with MVFR to occasionally IFR cigs.
Expect occasional MVFR cigs at other sites, with all sites going
to MVFR cigs after 06-07Z, except for IFR cigs at KCGI and KPAH.
Otherwise, expect occasional showers with isolated lightning
activity into tomorrow. Winds will average S to SW at 5 to near 10
knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

AVIATION...RS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-091000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
350 AM CDT Tue Jun 8 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Heavy rainfall from thunderstorms causing localized flooding is
the main hazard to expect today and tonight. Lightning will also
be a hazard with any thunderstorm. It is possible a stronger
storm, mainly during the afternoon hours, could produce an
isolated wind gust capable of producing damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Almost daily storm chances will have heavy rain and lightning as
the main hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should stay abreast of weather updates in case their
activation is requested this afternoon.