Wildfire in Idaho, June 15 to 17, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
132 PM MDT Tue Jun 15 2021

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. A brief cooldown will
persist through tomorrow, before warming back up. We may not get
as warm as recent days as the flow will be more zonal vs
southwest, but we will remain ABOVE "TYPICAL" for mid-June. It
will remain on the breezy side today, but no impacts outside of
the fire weather community are expected. It will be a bit breezy
in some spots tomorrow and Thursday, but not as strong as today.
Keyes

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday. The extended period starts with
a flatted ridge that will still promote warmer than normal
temperatures. Any monsoonal moisture that could provide fuel for
convection Friday and Saturday appears to be held south in model
solutions. Hot and dry conditions should prevail. By Sunday and into
Monday, energy moving south out of Canada will skirt eastern Idaho.
This will provide small chances for some precipitation in the
northern portions of eastern Idaho. The rest of the area will be
dry, but should see temperatures dropping down closer to normal.

By Tuesday models are wrestling with what to do with low pressure
along the northern California coast. Solutions hint at some energy
from the low kicking northeast towards Idaho, which could fuel
convection, but this would likely be after the extended
period...more during a Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. Crawford

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.AVIATION...While a few cu could pop up today, conditions at TAF
sites will be clear and dry. Winds will be only concern. Gusty south
to southwest winds will be the rule today, with only SUN switching
back to downvalley, northerly winds overnight tonight. Southwest to
west winds Wednesday will likely be a little lighter than today.
Crawford

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.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty winds and low humidity continue today, even
with temperatures cooler than the past few days. We are seeing the
strongest winds across the Snake Plain, southeast highlands, and
portions of the central mountains. We will keep the RED FLAG
WARNING out for all or portions of 410, 413 and 427 in
place...although winds are a little slow to mix out and pick up
across 427. Tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler, BUT the airmass
actually dries out over western fire zones while increasing a
small amount across the eastern and southern highlands. Winds will
be lighter, but we certainly will be flirting with critical fire
weather conditions across portions of the Snake Plain and Zone
476. We warm back up heading through the weekend with dry surface
air in place. In terms of wind and humidity, we will be flirting
with critical weather conditions in similar areas Thursday. We
will be watching Saturday for stronger winds and potential Red
Flag conditions as a storm drops down along/east of the Divide. In
terms of any moisture for dry storms, the potential continues to
be low. That said, we may see some moisture track along the Utah
border Friday afternoon and evening. Everything points to better
moisture and storm potential remaining south of us, but certainly
something to watch for a few possible storms. With the low dropping
along the Divide, the consensus it will stay far enough to the
north and east that things will stay on the other side of the
Divide for now. While we may see small fluctuations in
temperatures, the theme remains ABOVE AVERAGE temperatures. Keyes

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.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-413-427.

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