Increasing swell ahead of the approaching Tropical Cyclone Elsa and onshore flow combined to help produce rip currents along the southeast Georgia coast.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CHS wrote it up.
Increasing swell ahead of the approaching Tropical Cyclone Elsa and onshore flow combined to help produce rip currents along the southeast Georgia coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Charleston, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 5, 9:34 AM EST, 1 hour 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1034 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will extend over the area through Tuesday. Tropical Storm Elsa could bring impacts to the region Wednesday through Thursday. An unsettled pattern will continue through next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A stationary front will linger south of the area today. Most of the area will remain dry, with the exception being across southeast Georgia near the Altamaha River in proximity to the front and deepest moisture where a few showers/thunderstorms could develop. Rain chances in these locations top out 20-30%. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s/lower 90s inland to the lower 80s at the beaches. Ongoing forecast was in good shape, so very little change was needed with the late morning update. Tonight: Any lingering convection across the far south will dissipate after sunset with dry weather prevailing for much of the night. As southerly winds begin to increase late, weak isentropic assent atop the stationary front to the south could spark off isolated showers/tstms the far southern zones prior to daybreak Tuesday. Lows will range from the mid-upper 60s across interior Southeast South Carolina where radiational cooling will the most efficient to the lower-mid 70s elsewhere, except upper 70s along the beaches and Downtown Charleston. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Tuesday through Thursday: A stationary front extending across or near southeastern Georgia counties will dissipate Tuesday morning as surface high pressure broadens to our northwest and east. Some unsettled weather is expected as southerly flow begins to advect tropical moisture northward. PWats are expected to double, increasing from roughly 1 inch to 2+ inches by mid-afternoon. Moderate instability, mainly over our GA counties, along with surface forcing via the afternoon sea breeze will likely cause showers and thunderstorms to develop. Models indicate showers to initiate in the early afternoon over our most southern counties as well as offshore where the atmosphere destabilizes first, then gradually expand northward and inland later in the day. Overall, guidance has the forecast a bit drier on Tuesday as the influx of tropical moisture is delayed slightly. However, low-end likely PoPs cover most of the forecast area, with a low chance for severe weather considering shear is minimal. Increased cloud cover should keep high temperatures a bit lower than Monday, mainly in the upper 80s and low temps in the low/mid 70s. Wednesday and Thursday: Tropical Storm Elsa could bring some degree of impacts to our region by Wednesday morning. Specific details still remain limited as much depends on the track and especially the strength of the system. There is still much land/ocean interaction as it passes over Cuba and eventually Florida which will have a great deal of influence in terms of Elsa's intensity. NHC wind speed probabilities has roughly a 20% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds in the Charleston and Savannah locations. As far as other impacts go, heavy rain is certainly a possibility and WPC has a large portion of our coastal counties in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, although exact values remain uncertain. A generalized 1-3 inches is currently forecast with isolated areas potentially receiving up to 5 inches. Rainfall is especially tricky with tropical systems due to their tendency to form rain bands even as a weak tropical storm. Depending on how Elsa tracks, we could receive more rainfall and a greater threat for isolated tornadoes and waterspouts (over the waters) if a more inland/western track occurs. On the other hand, a track that places Elsa riding north east along or just offshore our coastal areas, could lessen those threats, although note it would not rule them out completely. By Thursday Elsa should be beginning to shift out of the area, tracking northeast roughly along the East coast on Thursday, however the region could still be dealing with lingering impacts from the storm. Tropical moisture is expected to stick around through the day with the return of southerly flow on the backside of the departing system. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast through much of the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures are looking to reach the mid to upper 80s over southeast SC and GA both days, with lows dropping into the lower/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The end of the week forecast and into next weekend looks to be unsettled with a typical summer pattern of scattered showers and thunderstorms nearly each day. Slightly below normal high temperatures should begin to climb to near normal by next weekend. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR. Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible Tuesday through much of the week due to showers and/or thunderstorms as well as potential impacts from Tropical Storm Elsa such as gusty winds, possibly reaching near tropical storm force. && .MARINE... Through Tonight: There are no concerns. Light northeast/east winds will veer to the east/southeast this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. South winds will prevail overnight. Speeds will remain 10 kt or less with seas 1-3 ft today and 2-4 ft tonight. Tuesday through Saturday: A stationary front over the waters will dissipate with mostly broad high pressure over the waters. In general, tranquil E/SE winds are expected through Tuesday night; about 10 kt or less with seas averaging 2-4 feet. Tropical Storm Elsa could impact the marine zones mainly Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. There is still much uncertainty considering much depends on Elsa's intensity and track. However, the current forecast brings 6-8 foot seas in the waters Wednesday afternoon, continuing through Thursday. Southeast winds will also begin to increase Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm force gusts possible over all marine waters through Thursday. Marine conditions should begin to improve Thursday night, although gusts up to 20 kt could continue over most of the waters through the period. Rip Currents: A low risk for rip currents is currently in place for all beaches through Tuesday. As Tropical Storm Elsa nears, long- period swell around 12-15 seconds could begin to reach the beaches, potentially elevating the rip current risk. A low risk remains for now since the dominant swell period reaching the beaches during this time frame is expected around 9 seconds with 2-3 ft breakers. The rip current threat may need to be increased for Tuesday if there is a change in the forecast. Otherwise as Elsa continues its northward track, the threat for increasing life-threatening rip currents will increase as long-period swell combines with large breaking waves. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && NEAR TERM...ETM SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Charleston SC 435 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040- 042>045-047>052-060845- Charleston Harbor- Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 NM- Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 NM- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 NM, including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA from 20 to 60 NM- Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans- Inland Bryan-Coastal Bryan-Inland Chatham-Coastal Chatham-Long- Inland Liberty-Coastal Liberty-Inland McIntosh-Coastal McIntosh- Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley- Inland Jasper-Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper- Tidal Berkeley- 435 AM EDT Mon Jul 5 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters, southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Tropics: Tropical Storm Elsa is expected to track across eastern portions of South Carolina and Georgia Wednesday into Thursday. There is an increasing potential for gusty winds to tropical storm force, locally heavy rainfall with minor flooding, isolated tornadoes and dangerous rip currents across much of Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia, including the adjacent coastal waters. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued for portions of the region later today or tonight. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
The Tybee Island Fire Department reported 6 rescues and 2 assists from several rip currents occurring along and south of 7th Street between noon and 3:30 pm EDT. Most of the rip currents occurred near the Tybee Island pier.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Georgia in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Georgia, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 965928.