Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain in Florida, March 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
850 PM EDT Mon Mar 29 2021

.UPDATE...

Main change was to bump up PoPs to likely over portions of
Suwannee Valley and interior southeast Georgia overnight. A
shortwave along the northern Gulf coast and centered over southern
Alabama will pivot eastward overnight across southern Georgia and
along the FL/GA border. Showers and isolated storms were
developing across the northeastern Gulf in response to this
shortwave. A frontal boundary south of the area this evening will
slowly work its way northward into northeast Florida overnight as
a warm front. Showers and embedded storms will move across the
Suwannee Valley and interior southeast Georgia overnight, with
lesser chances of rain elsewhere. Overnight lows will be in the
mid 50s across interior southeast Georgia, and the upper 50s to
lower 60s elsewhere.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [746 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Tonight through Tuesday]...High pressure to the north
will move off the east coast tonight while a weak mid-level
trough in the southern stream aloft brings the front located over
south Florida back north. The warm front will traverse the area
on Tuesday bringing showers and scattered thunderstorms from late
tonight through Tuesday. A few storms may become strong Tuesday
afternoon due to heating and strong wind shear present over the
area. Temperatures will warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s
on Tuesday.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday through Thursday Night]...
The area will be in the warm sector on Wednesday with an approaching
cold front and upper trough over the Ms River Valley. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon and night as the
front moves across the area...exiting by early Thursday morning.
Highest pops will be over se Ga where the best lift and instability
is expected to be located. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s
on Wednesday ahead of the front. Temperatures on Thursday will be
mostly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Monday]...Surface high building in from
the northwest on Friday will shift east and off the east coast
Sunday and Monday. Dry pattern with below normal temperatures will
occur Friday and Saturday with frost possible over se Ga Friday
night as lows drop into the mid 30s. Temperatures will rebound
Sunday and Monday as readings will be near average levels.

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will prevail this evening. Ceilings will lower
overnight to 3,000-4,000 feet at the northeast FL terminals, with
MVFR ceilings then prevailing at the northeast FL terminals
beginning Tuesday morning. Showers may begin to develop after 08Z
Tuesday, particularly at SSI, followed by increasing coverage of
showers and a few thunderstorms at the northeast FL terminals
after 12Z. VCTS was placed in the northeast FL TAFs for Tuesday,
with PROB30 groups for MVFR conditions within heavier downpours.
Northeasterly winds will diminish to 5-10 knots after 06Z, with
winds at inland terminals decreasing to 5 knots or less overnight.
Surface winds will shift to easterly around 10 knots at KGNV and
KSGJ towards 14Z, with east-northeasterly winds prevailing
elsewhere on Tuesday morning.

.MARINE...High pressure to the north will move off the east coast
tonight allowing a warm front to return north across the area on
Tuesday. This will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms
late tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will move southeast across
the area Wednesday night. High pressure will build to the northwest
Thursday and off the southeast coast this weekend. Advisory
conditions are expected to develop offshore Thursday through
Friday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

AMG  54  75  62  85  51 /  40  70  20  30  30
SSI  60  72  64  81  56 /  50  70  20  30  30
JAX  59  77  64  86  56 /  40  60  20  20  10
SGJ  62  76  65  82  59 /  20  40  20  20  10
GNV  60  82  63  86  58 /  20  60  30  10   0
OCF  62  85  66  88  61 /  10  70  40  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&