A slow moving cold front was moving through the area. Out ahead of it was plenty of moisture due to the strong southerly flow.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TBW wrote it up.
A slow moving cold front was moving through the area. Out ahead of it was plenty of moisture due to the strong southerly flow. This helped to produced showers and storms across the area. The lack of instability meant most storms stayed sub severe. However, one storms was strong enough to bring down some trees, powerlines, and fencing.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 3, 3:54 AM EST, 2 hours 29 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 354 AM EST Wed Mar 3 2021 .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... A shortwave continues to advect east to northeast, while its associated cold front trails over the Gulf of Mexico, and a frontal boundary stalls across central Florida this morning. This combined with the very moist airmass ahead of it all and southerly flow will support showers through much of today as we remain in the warm sector of this system. Although most of the upper level support stays to our north, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across our northern counties. The lack of instability will prevent any stronger storms to develop. Gusty winds, intermittent heavy downpours, and some lightning are the main threats with this system. Additionally, southerly flow and moist conditions will also support sea/land fog developing this morning, but should dissipate as the band of rain travels across the area. Highs today will range from the low 70s to low 80s north/south, but will gradually increase through the week. However, a much drier and clear skies will allow overnight lows to drop 6 to 10 degrees from this morning to Thursday morning. Conditions will feel more comfortable with morning temps in the 40s and 50s, and dewpoints staying in the 50s through the rest of the work week. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)... A ridge of high pressure will build over the nation's plains and move east into the weekend as a broad area of low pressure slides east on Saturday. This will result in a gradual increase in afternoon temperatures and rainfall chances. Model guidance brings in higher rainfall totals, compared to tonight/Wednesday's frontal passage Saturday into Sunday. Overnight lows will stay in the 40s and 50s in most locations. The remaining of the period is expected to remain pretty quite with a long stretch of rain free conditions. && .AVIATION... Another tough forecast for tonight with intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions prevailing ahead of an approaching front. Once again, there is low confidence of the visibility forecast as guidance and obs aren't really lining up. South to southwesterly winds will prevail and increase after 12Z as frontal boundary moves across TAF sites, but should shift to the north going into the the afternoon and evening. Ceiling are expected to go up and down through the morning as fog and rain develop. && .MARINE... A frontal boundary across central Florida combined with an approaching front will continue to support showers ans isolated thunderstorms this morning, as well as some patchy fog. Additionally, breezy conditions near exercise caution levels will be possible today. Boating conditions should improve Thursday into Friday, but another storm system will deteriorate them into the weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Very moist airmass and southerly flow across the area will prevail ahead of an front expected to move across fire districts today. This will support showers and isolated thunderstorms as the boundary travels across. Behind the frontal passage, relatively drier conditions (min RHs in the 40s) will settle in Thursday and Friday, before another area of low pressure brings in additional chances of showers into the weekend. Winds will shift west to southwest today, but will be north by Thursday. Then, winds will become more easterly going into the weekend. Therefore, no fire weather concerns at this time. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... TPA 72 56 73 55 / 50 0 0 0 FMY 79 58 78 56 / 30 0 0 0 GIF 77 53 76 52 / 50 0 0 0 SRQ 73 55 74 53 / 50 0 0 0 BKV 73 47 74 44 / 40 0 0 0 SPG 72 59 71 59 / 50 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Close
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 75 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:21 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency Manager reported large branches and fencing down around the Hampton Inn in Dade City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 940555.